ESPN's Preseason FPI Poll 1.0

[UNT90]

9 hours ago, untcampbell said:

For a guy who is trying to get his investment in the program (club seats) back, you sure let a lot scare the hell out of you. You are writing off the program. Just shake your head and relax, dude.

GMG

Probably the better path. 

Just do what the UNT administration has done for decades and continues to do.

[man-up UNT]

Thank you Rick V...

[Eagle-96]

16 hours ago, UNT90 said:

I'd be careful with that statement...

Guess what. ANY system would rank UNT poorly. And we should absolutely be worried about it.

Also, several on here have given some variation of the statement "there is no way to go but up." That is factually inaccurate and it scares the hell out of me that people are saying this. 

It's kind of like the guy who was on a business trip. He was about to board the train home but forgot his wallet. He left his two co-workers at the station and went back to the office to get the wallet and was severely injured in the Hiroshima atomic bomb blast. He thought it couldn't get worse. Anyway, he was finally able to make it back home 3 days later. He probably felt good to finally be back home in Nagasaki. It CAN get worse. True Story.

[Eagle-96]

10 minutes ago, Ryan Munthe said:

Having us last--makes sense.

Having our offense last--doesn't make sense. Our offense didn't get worse.

Dude, we lost the greatest red-headed, weak-armed, bad decision making son of a coaches roommate with a brother named Ted to ever come out of east-central Iowa post 2009 QB. Of course we will be worse.

[UNT90]

5 hours ago, Eagle-96 said:

Dude, we lost the greatest red-headed, weak-armed, bad decision making son of a coaches roommate with a brother named Ted to ever come out of east-central Iowa post 2009 QB. Of course we will be worse.

I'd preach caution here, also. While I'll agree McNulty was terrible, I also remember people being thankful DT was gone (even though he had just won a bowl) and ready to climb on the back of a QB with no other FBS offers outta high school (sound familiar?). I remember how people said how much better we would be.

Do I think this is that? Hell no. But I caution wild optimism about something and someone (Morris) for which there is no baseline. 

[UNT90]

Just now, Ryan Munthe said:

Wouldn't say thankful DT is gone, but I do get dismayed to think about how much better (than it already was) 2013 could have been if we could have had at least an average FBS QB at the reins.

Or how much better 2014 would have been with DT back for another season?

[UNT90]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Munthe said:

Would've rather had a BCS buster in 2013 than a .500 level 2014.

And I would have rather had Johnny Football than DT.

[greenminer]

It's because of RV, UNT90 is UNT90.

#ThanksRV

[UNT90]

7 hours ago, Ryan Munthe said:

I would've rather had just about any of the top half QBs in the Sun Belt over DT.

Not surprising coming from a former "member" of the AD.

6 hours ago, greenminer said:

It's because of RV, UNT90 is UNT90.

#ThanksRV

Football sucks, basketball sucks. Attendance is WAY down in both. 

So your #ThanksRV hashtag is dead on.

[outoftown]

On 9.2.2016 at 3:54 PM, untjim1995 said:

 In yesterday's article from SBNation about why the Mean Green are always bad, they used their simulation to look at 2016's upcoming season and to see what our chances of winning each game would be. The only one we were favored to win in their program was against Bethune-Cookman.

 

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	SMU	98	-7.7	33%
10-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR	7.3	66%
17-Sep	at Florida	18	-35.9	2%
24-Sep	at Rice	119	-7.9	32%
1-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	-10.1	28%
8-Oct	Marshall	75	-14.8	20%
22-Oct	at Army	124	-5.9	37%
29-Oct	at UTSA	116	-8.2	32%
5-Nov	Louisiana Tech	84	-11.9	25%
12-Nov	at Western Kentucky	45	-27.0	6%
19-Nov	Southern Miss	72	-15.2	19%
26-Nov	at UTEP	126	-4.4	40%

So this is neither as dyre as some say, nor as far fateched as others say. I feel a lot of folks have problems reading this correctly. Yes UNT is thee underdog in almost every game. But there are a lot of games with a fair chance of winning, and most likely a few, but not a lot of wins will fall of the wagon. Given the probabilities above, the expected value of wins is 3.4. But it would be highly unlikely we'd rank last in the end if we get just 3 of those 3.4. Chance of going winless is 1.28%, 1 win 8.88% so being as bad as that, while not impossible is not a particularly likely outcome. That said chances of getting bowl eligible would be 7.82 percent only too.

 

Now if you say you think coach Littrell will do good things for the team immediately and chances should be 10% higher in every game. Well actually that doesn't change things too much. Our expected win total would still be only 4.6. In other words you'd be expecting fast and massive success increase If you think that for example a bowl is a likely outcome next season.

Edited February 11, 2016 by outoftown

[UNT90]

16 minutes ago, outoftown said:

So this is neither as dyre as some say, nor as far fateched as others say. I feel a lot of folks have problems reading this correctly. Yes UNT is thee underdog in almost every game. But there are a lot of games with a fair chance of winning, and most likely a few, but not a lot of wins will fall of the wagon. Given the probabilities above, the expected value of wins is 3.4. But it would be highly unlikely we'd rank last in the end if we get just 3 of those 3.4. Chance of going winless is 1.28%, 1 win 8.88% so being as bad as that, while not impossible is not a particularly likely outcome. That said chances of getting bowl eligible would be 7.82 percent only too.

 

Now if you say you think coach Littrell will do good things for the team immediately and chances should be 10% higher in every game. Well actually that doesn't change things too much. Our expected win total would still be only 4.6. In other words you'd be expecting fast and massive success increase If you think that for example a bowl is a likely outcome next season.

Look at you and your big math brain.

Excellent analysis, although I would add that the reason they have UNT ranked dead last is they believe UNT's schedule is EXTREMELY weak, and say so in the article. So I'm guessing they would value a 2 win team with a stronger schedule over a 3 win UNT. 

Edited February 11, 2016 by UNT90