Reviewing and comparing the 2016 class based on offer lists

[BillySee58]

For those who aren't familiar, I've made a scale in the past to evaluate our signees solely based on the opinions of college coaches, and who offered them at various stages in their recruitment. Since we've been in CUSA all of our all-CUSA players with the exception of Brelan Chancellor have been "B" or better on the scale.

The scale goes as follows: a "C" grade means we were the only FBS offer, a "C+" grade means one other FBS offer, a "B" grade means at least 3 total FBS offers, a "B+" means 3-5 FBS offers with the offers being impressive (i.e. a P5 offer), an "A" means at least 6 FBS offers, and an "A+" means 10 or more total D1 offers.

Littrell's first class - 2016

C - 6 (Wilson, Muhammad, Fine, Baulkman, Wheeler, Ejiya)

C+ - 1 (Moore)

B - 4 (Hamilton, Anthony, Hair-Griffin, Hayes)

B+ - 2 (Nic Smith, Turner)

A - 2 (William Johnson, Henson)

A+ - 1 (Bussey)

56% B or better

 

Mccarney's first class - 2011 

C - 8 (Jimmerson, Ellard, Mcnulty, Lee, Mason, Stojkovic, Osborn, Shaw)

C+ - 6 (Jamone Greer, Cooper Jones, Whitfield, Polk, Marcus Smith, Micah Thompson)

B - 3 (Akunne, Austin Orr, Lincoln)

B+ - 5 (Brooks, Sampson, Swarn, Warner, Power)

A - 1 (Lemon)

A+ - 0

39% B or better

 

Mccarney's last class - 2015

C - 3 (Ozougwu, Robinson, Thompson)

C+ - 6 (Dam. Smith, Bendy, Brooks, Munden, Woodworth, Dak. Smith)

B - 9 (Bradley, Preston, Murray, Gray, Howard, Harrison, Wegmann, Grindle, Ochs)

B+ - 1 (Young)

A - 2 (Barr, Combs)

A+ - 2 (McNair, Dillman)

61% B or better

 

Mccarney's best class - 2014 

C - 2 (Jalen Montgomery, Trevor Moore)

C+ - 2 (Mcclain, Rutherford)

B - 6 (Tillman Johnson, Josh Greer, Akii Smith, Means, Andrew Jones, Tauaalo)

B+ - 2 (Wilson, Garner)

A - 3 (Adams, Ivery, Davis)

A+ - 3 (Goree, Miles, Chumley)

78% B or better

 

I included grayshirts with the class they were recruited and committed in. I love the ratio on that 2014 class. It's too bad it was a small one, and we lost two of its top signees before they even played a down. Not a bad ratio for Littrell's first class, but definitely room to improve. I think we should shoot for around 70% on up. Really going to need all these signees to show up and stay on campus.

Edited February 5, 2016 by BillySee58

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Have you looked at that 2010 class that took us to HoD? I suspect, despite the rankings, that class had a decent B or better ratio. Thanks for the comparison and insight. 

[Wag Tag]

21 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

For those who aren't familiar, I've made a scale in the past to evaluate our signees solely based on the opinions of college coaches, and who offered them at various stages in their recruitment. Since we've been in CUSA all of our all-CUSA players with the exception of Brelan Chancellor have been "B" or better on the scale.

The scale goes as follows: a "C" grade means we were the only FBS offer, a "C+" grade means one other FBS offer, a "B" grade means at least 3 total FBS offers, a "B+" means 3-5 FBS offers with the offers being impressive (i.e. a P5 offer), an "A" means at least 6 FBS offers, and an "A+" means 10 or more total D1 offers.

Littrell's first class - 2016

C - 6 (Wilson, Muhammad, Fine, Baulkman, Wheeler, Ejiya)

C+ - 1 (Moore)

B - 4 (Hamilton, Anthony, Hair-Griffin, Hayes)

B+ - 2 (Nic Smith, Turner)

A - 2 (William Johnson, Henson)

A+ - 1 (Bussey)

56% B or better

 

Mccarney's first class - 2011 

C - 8 (Jimmerson, Ellard, Mcnulty, Lee, Mason, Stojkovic, Osborn, Shaw)

C+ - 6 (Jamone Greer, Cooper Jones, Whitfield, Polk, Marcus Smith, Micah Thompson)

B - 3 (Akunne, Austin Orr, Lincoln)

B+ - 5 (Brooks, Sampson, Swarn, Warner, Power)

A - 1 (Lemon)

A+ - 0

39% B or better

 

Mccarney's last class - 2015

C - 3 (Ozougwu, Robinson, Thompson)

C+ - 6 (Dam. Smith, Bendy, Brooks, Munden, Woodworth, Dak. Smith)

B - 9 (Bradley, Preston, Murray, Gray, Howard, Harrison, Wegmann, Grindle, Ochs)

B+ - 1 (Young)

A - 2 (Barr, Combs)

A+ - 2 (McNair, Dillman)

61% B or better

 

Mccarney's best class - 2014 

C - 2 (Jalen Montgomery, Trevor Moore)

C+ - 2 (Mcclain, Rutherford)

B - 6 (Tillman Johnson, Josh Greer, Akii Smith, Means, Andrew Jones, Tauaalo)

B+ - 2 (Wilson, Garner)

A - 3 (Adams, Ivery, Davis)

A+ - 3 (Goree, Miles, Chumley)

78% B or better

 

I included grayshirts with the class they were recruited and committed in. I love the ratio on that 2014 class. It's too bad it was a small one, and we lost two of its top signees before they even played a down. Not a bad ratio for Littrell's first class, but definitely room to improve. I think we should shoot for around 70% on up. Really going to need all these signees to show up and stay on campus.

Great info! Hoping the 2014 class, along with transfers, JUCOs and a new philosophy will prove to be very positive this year. Oh an a DT addition hopefully!

[BillySee58]

6 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Have you looked at that 2010 class that took us to HoD? I suspect, despite the rankings, that class had a decent B or better ratio. Thanks for the comparison and insight. 

Off the top of my head, the ratio wasn't great but I think all the "B" or better guys became all-CUSA (Y'Barbo, Zach Orr, Bellazin). Definitely a group that did a great job staying intact and maximizing their abilities.

Just looked. By my count only those 3 out of the 12 high school signees were "B" or better (25%). Dodge went juco heavy, and it was hard to win recruiting battles when every opposing coach could easily say he was about to get fired.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

2 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

Off the top of my head, the ratio wasn't great but I think all the "B" or better guys became all-CUSA (Y'Barbo, Zach Orr, Bellazin). Definitely a group that did a great job staying intact and maximizing their abilities.

Just looked. By my count only those 3 out of the 12 high school signees were "B" or better (25%). Dodge went juco heavy, and it was hard to win recruiting battles when every opposing coach could easily say he was about to get fired.

Oh wow. Yeah definitely seemed like we may have caught lightning in a bottle that year too. You think there's any correlation with some of the new assistants brought in such as KP and TP that brought some better recruiting success in '14 and '15? I will be interested to see how those two classes turn out with some experience. 

[BillySee58]

4 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Oh wow. Yeah definitely seemed like we may have caught lightning in a bottle that year too. You think there's any correlation with some of the new assistants brought in such as KP and TP that brought some better recruiting success in '14 and '15? I will be interested to see how those two classes turn out with some experience. 

I think those two definitely helped. KP landed 5 of the 14 B or better guys in 2015 (Wegmann, Howard, Harrison, Young, Combs). Also, our 2 A+ guys that year absolutely landed in our laps, with Dillman and McNair no longer having any other FBS options when we swooped in. So KP and some fortunate circumstances certainly helped big time there.

I'm also looking forward to how the 2014 kids turn out. Definitely some early all-CUSA potential shown from guys like Wilson, Miles, Goree, Ivery, Garner, and Mcclain. Really good core there. Hopefully we see Chumley show why P5 schools wanted him as a pass catcher.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

6 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

I think those two definitely helped. KP landed 5 of the 14 B or better guys in 2015 (Wegmann, Howard, Harrison, Young, Combs). Also, our 2 A+ guys that year absolutely landed in our laps, with Dillman and McNair no longer having any other FBS options when we swooped in. So KP and some fortunate circumstances certainly helped big time there.

I'm also looking forward to how the 2014 kids turn out. Definitely some early all-CUSA potential shown from guys like Wilson, Miles, Goree, Ivery, Garner, and Mcclain. Really good core there. Hopefully we see Chumley show why P5 schools wanted him as a pass catcher.

Seems like Ekeler got 3 of the 9 B or better this year with Brad Davis doing some work too. Will be interesting keeping an eye on those two as recruiters.

[MeanGreenHoops]

Very interesting stuff @BillySee58. Thanks for doing this. It seems our last 3 recruiting classes are fairly good, with Littrells the lowest of the three. Does this mean we'll be bowling and saying Littrell did it with Mccarney's players?

[GMG_Dallas]

4 minutes ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Very interesting stuff @BillySee58. Thanks for doing this. It seems our last 3 recruiting classes are fairly good, with Littrells the lowest of the three. Does this mean we'll be bowling and saying Littrell did it with Mccarney's players?

Probably but it will only matter if Littrell doesn't go bowling with his own players. If he goes with both mac's and his within the next 5 or so years, we might not have him for much longer after that.

[BillySee58]

1 hour ago, MeanGreenHoops said:

Very interesting stuff @BillySee58. Thanks for doing this. It seems our last 3 recruiting classes are fairly good, with Littrells the lowest of the three. Does this mean we'll be bowling and saying Littrell did it with Mccarney's players?

Possibly. As I was talking about, that 2010 class only had 3 players B or better, but they all ended up all conference. We need to see these guys actually become bonafide all-CUSA guys.

Looking at that 2013 team, we had 6 players who were all-CUSA that year and 2 more starters who were honorable mention but became all-CUSA the next year (Akunne, James Jones). If you look outside those guys, the rest of the starters on that team were mostly below "B" and former walkons. It's so key to have those difference makers who make those around them better. 

[physics90]

@BillSee58.  Thanks for the information.  I'm new to the forum.  Have you ever done the same analysis for a Dickey or a Dodge team?  It would be interesting to see if you have.

[BillySee58]

1 hour ago, physics90 said:

@BillSee58.  Thanks for the information.  I'm new to the forum.  Have you ever done the same analysis for a Dickey or a Dodge team?  It would be interesting to see if you have.

No, but I have for individual players. It's pretty time consuming, and the further back you go the harder it is to even find accurate offer lists for our guys. I started here in 2011, so these are the guys whose offer lists I've become familiar.

[Cerebus]

3 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

No, but I have for individual players. It's pretty time consuming, and the further back you go the harder it is to even find accurate offer lists for our guys. I started here in 2011, so these are the guys whose offer lists I've become familiar.

The internet recruiting sites were just getting into swing when Dickey was here.  I really do believe if we could have seen the rankings of a couple of those classes would demolish anything done here since we returned to 1A.

[casual fan]

If you factor in English, it makes this a better class.

Littrell said he has scholarships left to use between now and fall.

Keep your fingers crossed.

There could be players out there who could improve this class.

[UNT90]

@BillySee58 great work. If you are just bored out of your mind, it would be interesting to see all of CUSA and where we stand in your model. 

Like I said. If you are just completely bored outta your head.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

4 hours ago, UNT90 said:

@BillySee58 great work. If you are just bored out of your mind, it would be interesting to see all of CUSA and where we stand in your model. 

Like I said. If you are just completely bored outta your head.

Taking out UAB because that would take forever. I'd be interested to see that too. I'm always interested in year-by-year how we rank among our peers and how that correlates with our record in years subsequent once that class has matured into upper-classmen. I think you'd see it's fairly obvious that our losing records didn't happen by mistake and it began several years prior by not winning recruiting battles.