MGB: Keith Frazier is transferring to UNT, per AAU coach

[TheTastyGreek]

Two additional points to add here now that I've been able to get on a real computer and do some research.

1) It is VERY unusual for CUSA teams to play with a lame duck coach. And when I say "CUSA teams", I'm talking about the current 14 members, not teams (like Cincinnati, Marquette, Memphis, and Louisville) that are historically much better and more serious about basketball than CUSA today. So, even notorious washouts like Isiah Thomas, Alan Major, Sergio Rouco, and Ron Jirsa didn't make it to a lame duck season. 

There is only one clear-cut lame duck I've been able to find among our 13 conference mates since at least our hiring of JJ 15 years ago. 

Keith Richard went into the 2007-08 season as a lame duck for Louisiana Tech. This is an instance where I think they'd actually wanted to fire him the year before, but couldn't because he won 20 games and made the NIT (in 2007). He'd been the coach at La Tech for 8 years before his lame duck year, 30+ games over .500, two NIT bids, only one career season below .500 in his conference. That would be when he went 8-10 in 2003-04 in a 2-bid WAC, back when it had Tulsa, UTEP, Nevada, and Fresno State. 

I think they wanted to move on (otherwise, they would have extended him), but they couldn't fire him after 20 wins and the postseason. So they carried Richard over into his last contract year, he lost 20 games for the only time in his La Tech career, and he was allowed to drift out to sea. 

There are two other possible lame ducks from the past 15 years. One is James Green at Southern Miss and the other is Willis Wilson at Rice. 

James Green resigned before the end of the season in 2004. Conveniently, early enough to allow Southern Miss to hire Larry Eustachy before the start of the Sweet Sixteen (and much of coaching silly season) that year. It's not clear from anything I can find whether or not he would have had any years left on his contract after that season. 

Willis Wilson was let go by Rice in 2008 after the worst season in school history (Rice went 3-27 and 0-16 in conference). Wilson was the head coach for 16 years (started in 1992), and was a 5 year assistant and 4 year player for Rice prior to that. I'm not sure whether he was a lame duck in that final season, but all the language in the news articles say he "was not retained" and none mention additional years on his contract (though none mention he was in his last year, either). 

So, no lame ducks in 8 years. In the past 15 years... Minimum of one, maximum of three. 

2) Western Kentucky could shame us into a firing. Ray Harper was hired midway through the season before Benford joined us. This is his 4th full year at WKU, 4th and a half total. The only time Harper hasn't won at least 20 games was his half-season... When he was only the head coach for 19 total games. Back in 2012, the last time we weren't awful, Harper is the one who stopped us one minute short of the NCAA tournament in JJ's farewell game. 

Harper has 2 NCAA bids, at least one win over a Top 25 team, 3 20+ win seasons in 3 full years... And he may be fired after this season. 

I just don't think, if Western Kentucky fires a guy with his credentials and results despite only 19 more games as a head coach than Benford, that we could credibly roll into another season with Benford at the helm. With or without an extension. 

[UNT90]

11 minutes ago, TheTastyGreek said:

Two additional points to add here now that I've been able to get on a real computer and do some research.

1) It is VERY unusual for CUSA teams to play with a lame duck coach. And when I say "CUSA teams", I'm talking about the current 14 members, not teams (like Cincinnati, Marquette, Memphis, and Louisville) that are historically much better and more serious about basketball than CUSA today. So, even notorious washouts like Isiah Thomas, Alan Major, Sergio Rouco, and Ron Jirsa didn't make it to a lame duck season. 

There is only one clear-cut lame duck I've been able to find among our 13 conference mates since at least our hiring of JJ 15 years ago. 

Keith Richard went into the 2007-08 season as a lame duck for Louisiana Tech. This is an instance where I think they'd actually wanted to fire him the year before, but couldn't because he won 20 games and made the NIT (in 2007). He'd been the coach at La Tech for 8 years before his lame duck year, 30+ games over .500, two NIT bids, only one career season below .500 in his conference. That would be when he went 8-10 in 2003-04 in a 2-bid WAC, back when it had Tulsa, UTEP, Nevada, and Fresno State. 

I think they wanted to move on (otherwise, they would have extended him), but they couldn't fire him after 20 wins and the postseason. So they carried Richard over into his last contract year, he lost 20 games for the only time in his La Tech career, and he was allowed to drift out to sea. 

There are two other possible lame ducks from the past 15 years. One is James Green at Southern Miss and the other is Willis Wilson at Rice. 

James Green resigned before the end of the season in 2004. Conveniently, early enough to allow Southern Miss to hire Larry Eustachy before the start of the Sweet Sixteen (and much of coaching silly season) that year. It's not clear from anything I can find whether or not he would have had any years left on his contract after that season. 

Willis Wilson was let go by Rice in 2008 after the worst season in school history (Rice went 3-27 and 0-16 in conference). Wilson was the head coach for 16 years (started in 1992), and was a 5 year assistant and 4 year player for Rice prior to that. I'm not sure whether he was a lame duck in that final season, but all the language in the news articles say he "was not retained" and none mention additional years on his contract (though none mention he was in his last year, either). 

So, no lame ducks in 8 years. In the past 15 years... Minimum of one, maximum of three. 

2) Western Kentucky could shame us into a firing. Ray Harper was hired midway through the season before Benford joined us. This is his 4th full year at WKU, 4th and a half total. The only time Harper hasn't won at least 20 games was his half-season... When he was only the head coach for 19 total games. Back in 2012, the last time we weren't awful, Harper is the one who stopped us one minute short of the NCAA tournament in JJ's farewell game. 

Harper has 2 NCAA bids, at least one win over a Top 25 team, 3 20+ win seasons in 3 full years... And he may be fired after this season. 

I just don't think, if Western Kentucky fires a guy with his credentials and results despite only 19 more games as a head coach than Benford, that we could credibly roll into another season with Benford at the helm. With or without an extension. 

WKU is not a good comparison. They actually care about their basketball program and demand results. Hence Harper replacing the previous coach in year 2 of that coach's contract. 

UNT was perfectly willing to let Benford destroy the program when it was clear that was going to be the end result 1/2 year into Benford's contract. Yet 3 1/2 years later here we sit debating whether Benford will get another year. 

So is it possible for that to happen at UNT? Absolutely.

I only wished UNT cared as much about athletics as Western Kentucky...

[MeanGreenHoops]

17 hours ago, TheTastyGreek said:

I think it's more a consequence of personal reputation, and RV's position is going to be what seals it for Benford. 

You can make a lot of claims about why we didn't fire Benford last year or the year before. But one major factor, and it's obvious every time Rick makes a public statement or answers a podcast question about the basketball team, is that RV is desperate for any way to be able to claim Benford ultimately wasn't a failed hire.

The guy has literally deluded himself about the present and the recent past trying to justify not firing Benford already.  Put aside the subjective stuff and just look at the counting numbers... Mistaking how long it took JJ to have a winning season, mistakenly saying we won 18 games under Benford in a tenure where we've never even cracked .500... There was a whole thread (on my phone or I'd link it) I started after a podcast appearance last year where Rick had confused himself just enough to make Benford seem barely palatable. 

Every hire an AD makes is a risk to their own reputation. And Rick's "recent" history (I think @BillySee58 has some figures on hand covering the past decade and a half) is not flattering, so he's been loath to admit the mistake and move on like a real basketball program would. It's personal pride reasons fueling self-delusion or denial. But RV's desperation to see Benford win and salvage his own reputation, which has kept Benford around this long, will also be the end of the line for him. 

Because extending someone with Benford's history or keeping him and spending a year with a losing lame duck coach is so unusual outside of the absolute dregs of D1 sports, it'll make Rick look foolish. Publicly (among anyone bothering to pay attention), and perhaps more importantly... Among his peers. 

Obviously, this is my opinion of how Rick will handle the situation... But, the one positive about our godawful history of coaching hires is that you don't have to look far into the past to find an example of a similar dismal situation. Rick handled the Todd Dodge situation almost exactly the same way, and even that guy didn't get a lame duck year. He got fired as soon as it was obvious he couldn't have a winning season in year 4. Since basketball always has the theoretical possibility of a conference tournament win and an NCAA bid, that's not likely to happen mid-year in basketball. But, when the year is over and the record isn't above .500, I'm convinced it's finally going to be the end. 

 

Great post. It also seems that Jimmy Johns gets so close to the program and emotionally invested that he can't see what is happening. That first Benford season it seemed clear the team quit on Benford. Instead of Jimmy Johns seeing that as a coach who was in over his head, he saw it as unfair to Benford and not his fault. He then used it as excuses, and even there were posts on here suggesting that Mitchell was a problem and didn't try, and other players were cancers.

It was pretty obvious in how that team fell apart that they quit on Benford. But instead of Jimmy Johns admitted a mistake, he doubled down in all ways that you clearly stated. He dug in and that ran this program into the apathetic mess it is right now.

Even so, Benford has still recruited some talent to this team, that would make it not the extreme rebuild that it could have been.