Future strength of Texas teams

casual fan · January 19, 2016

The smartest move the Big 12 could do is become the Big 12.

They should add Houston and one other good team if they want to survive.

Houston is recruiting like a team that just went 13-1.

They have 2 top 100 players on the national level and 6 on the state level.

They will be good for the foreseeable future.

GOMG2013 · January 19, 2016

32 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Well, I mostly feel like Herman will leave because the others before him recently have left for greener pastures. But the Patterson possibility exists. It just seems to me that Herman is a guy that will go up the food chain from UH, not stay there.

Assuming Herman leaves, that means UH most likely had another big year, and was possibly the top G5 team again, played in a new years bowl and finished ranked again.

He leaves the UH position in a great spot where they can attract a top coach and pay him close to 3 mil. If UT gets rid of Charlie strong, it wouldn't surprise me if he applied for the UH job and keep the recruiting in Houston going.

Texas Stranger · January 19, 2016

22 hours ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

They've got a T. Boone Pickens-like alum now that is supposedly shoveling them money. He's trying to buy Houston's way into the Big 12.

If that approach actually worked SMU would be in the SEC

UNTFan23 · January 19, 2016

1 hour ago, casual fan said:

The smartest move the Big 12 could do is become the Big 12.

They should add Houston and one other good team if they want to survive.

Houston is recruiting like a team that just went 13-1.

They have 2 top 100 players on the national level and 6 on the state level.

They will be good for the foreseeable future.

The only way the Big 12 conference adds a Texas school to its ranks is if a Texas school leaves the Big 12. Right now I bet the Big 12 is more interested in adding new markets to its portfolio. Bringing in a new Texas team like Houston won't accomplish that.

Eagle1855 · January 19, 2016

16 minutes ago, UNTFan23 said:

The only way the Big 12 conference adds a Texas school to its ranks is if a Texas school leaves the Big 12. Right now I bet the Big 12 is more interested in adding new markets to its portfolio. Bringing in a new Texas team like Houston won't accomplish that.

Maybe. Probably. But adding Houston takes a direct shot at A&M.

I think Houston makes a lot of sense for the ACC. Their academics are on par or better than many of their current members and provides a Texas foothold for a conference without one.

UNTFan23 · January 19, 2016

5 minutes ago, Eagle1855 said:

Maybe. Probably. But adding Houston takes a direct shot at A&M.

I think Houston makes a lot of sense for the ACC. Their academics are on par or better than many of their current members and provides a Texas foothold for a conference without one.

Odds are the Big 12 have the ratings breakdown and if the Big 12 are already first in the Houston market, there is absolutely no need to add Houston. They might not add Houston even if they are second in the ratings rankings. New markets will provide new revenue streams. Keep in mind adding new schools means thinning out your payout amounts and so a school has to provide a significant boost to the conference.

The ACC will only add new schools at this point if they are poached, which I don't think is likely.

laxtonto · January 19, 2016

People need to accept that conference realignment at the P5 level is over for the foreseeable future..

UH gambled and lost. There wont be movement with the Big 12 getting their Conference Game. OU can whine all they want, but they will never develop an academic profile to get in the Big 10 in the time frame to force the rest of the Big 12 to move. Lets not forget that if OU gets their way regarding adds to the conference and a conference network, most teams will be losing money initially.

KU, WVU, UT, and even OU I know for sure make more from their 3rd tier rights than what the SEC N produces with their network. This idea that the other members are just going to decide to take less money when OU has no real leverage makes this more an exercise in human behavior and the need to have hope vs the realization that this is much more than just a simple decision and there is a ton of money tied to it.

Edited January 19, 2016 by laxtonto

UNTFan23 · January 19, 2016

1 minute ago, Eagle1855 said:

...or if conferences go to 16 with or without the breakdown of the Big XII. Most people believe another realignment is coming. Especially if the playoff is expanded.

To leave the ACC, the price tag is something like 10 million. So for some other the conference to poach an ACC school, they will take that into account.

In my opinion, the Big 12 and AAC are the most susceptible to being poached but you can't leave out the MWC when it comes to P5 conference expansion.

casual fan · January 19, 2016

The real danger to the Big 12 is poaching.

The SEC, ACC, and Big 10 all have 14 teams, and the Pac12 has 12.

With only 10 teams, any expansion by one of them could bring down the Big 12.

Houston has one of the top recruiting classes in the country after going 13-1.

247 has them at 26 with 19 of 20 recruits with 3 stars or better.

(three big DTs - one is a 5 star and ranked as the 6th best player in the country, plus 2 - 4 star WRs and a 4star OL)

The Big 12 right now looks a lot like the defunct SWC in its last couple of years.

forevereagle · January 19, 2016

15 minutes ago, casual fan said:

The real danger to the Big 12 is poaching.

The SEC, ACC, and Big 10 all have 14 teams, and the Pac12 has 12.

With only 10 teams, any expansion by one of them could bring down the Big 12.

The Big 12 right now looks a lot like the defunct SWC in its last couple of years.

Right. And because of the domination of UT in that conference, they have unhappy members who are likely to leave if given the opportunity. If they would work to make all of their member schools happy, poaching would become a less likely occurrence and the other conferences would have to look elsewhere. As long as UT is in control of things there, they should always be concerned that another conference could come calling.

NTXCoog · January 19, 2016

2 hours ago, UNTFan23 said:

Odds are the Big 12 have the ratings breakdown and if the Big 12 are already first in the Houston market, there is absolutely no need to add Houston. They might not add Houston even if they are second in the ratings rankings. New markets will provide new revenue streams. Keep in mind adding new schools means thinning out your payout amounts and so a school has to provide a significant boost to the conference.

The Big 12 was not first in the Houston market. The SEC dominated it due to Alabama, LSU, and aTm. UH actually had as many top 10 rated games (2) in the market as the entire Big XII with only UT/OU ahead of 2 UH games.

MeanGreenTexan · January 19, 2016

9 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

Right. And because of the domination of UT in that conference, they have unhappy members who are likely to leave if given the opportunity. If they would work to make all of their member schools happy, poaching would become a less likely occurrence and the other conferences would have to look elsewhere. As long as UT is in control of things there, they should always be concerned that another conference could come calling.

I would think that as long as UT and OU are in the conference, it will survive. Texas is so powerful on the NCAA stage... It's really their conference to keep afloat.

Now, if UT and/or OU decide, "we want to move and join a different conference", the other schools are SOL. It would take a VERY BIG reshuffle to cause the big12(10) to collapse. And I'm sure a reshuffle of that magnitude would have Houston included somewhere.

forevereagle · January 19, 2016

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I would think that as long as UT and OU are in the conference, it will survive. Texas is so powerful on the NCAA stage... It's really their conference to keep afloat.

Now, if UT and/or OU decide, "we want to move and join a different conference", the other schools are SOL. It would take a VERY BIG reshuffle to cause the big12(10) to collapse. And I'm sure a reshuffle of that magnitude would have Houston included somewhere.

My point is, if I am Kansas and the Big 10 calls and offers me a spot, I am going to jump at the chance to get away from UT and the stranglehold they have over the conference. OU and UT have no reason to leave since no other conference will allow them to be in control like they are now.

MeanGreenTexan · January 19, 2016

14 minutes ago, forevereagle said:

My point is, if I am Kansas and the Big 10 calls and offers me a spot, I am going to jump at the chance to get away from UT and the stranglehold they have over the conference. OU and UT have no reason to leave since no other conference will allow them to be in control like they are now.

Gotcha. Yes, absolutely... but I don't know if anyone would call Kansas just for their basketball. If so, I bet they're gone.
I think there's a law in Oklahoma that says one of the universities cannot move to another conference without the other (OU/OSU), right? So that would take out OSU. KSU/ISU... please. That leaves Tech, Baylor, TCU, and... West Virginia. WVU may get a call from somewhere (not the Big10, as their academics aren't up to par). I doubt they would find any value in moving to the ACC, so I doubt they go anywhere either.

It would take quite the reshuffle to kill the big 12... just like the Longhorns like it.

forevereagle · January 19, 2016

1 minute ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Gotcha. Yes, absolutely... but I don't know if anyone would call Kansas just for their basketball. If so, I bet they're gone.
I think there's a law in Oklahoma that says one of the universities cannot move to another conference without the other (OU/OSU), right? So that would take out OSU. KSU/ISU... please. That leaves Tech, Baylor, TCU, and... West Virginia. WVU may get a call from somewhere (not the Big10, as their academics aren't up to par). I doubt they would find any value in moving to the ACC, so I doubt they go anywhere either.

It would take quite the reshuffle to kill the big 12... just like the Longhorns like it.

Just threw out Kansas as an example, but if Maryland can get into the Big 10, Kansas is not so far-fetched. If the Big 12 looses one or two, then it could become a fire sale. They lost a lot in the last shuffle, so it could happen again. If I were them, I would try to get a couple more teams in and sign a deal like the ACC did a few years back to solidify my membership and force the other conferences to look elsewhere for new members.

Ben Gooding · January 19, 2016

On 1/18/2016 at 1:21 PM, untjim1995 said:

Very true on the recruiting battle front.

I still believe that UH's football future will involve independence that somehow gets Power League acceptance, ala BYU and ND.

I believe a few conferences actually claim Army as P5 too.

DeepGreen · January 20, 2016

So, where does all of this leave the University of North Texas???

NTXCoog · January 20, 2016

18 hours ago, Ben Gooding said:

I believe a few conferences actually claim Army as P5 too.

Mostly those are P5 teams making exceptions so their scheduling meets their conference rules (even though they really don't). For example, this year I believe they considered Temple and Cincinnati P5 teams as scheduling exceptions.

untjim1995 · January 20, 2016

19 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Gotcha. Yes, absolutely... but I don't know if anyone would call Kansas just for their basketball. If so, I bet they're gone.
I think there's a law in Oklahoma that says one of the universities cannot move to another conference without the other (OU/OSU), right? So that would take out OSU. KSU/ISU... please. That leaves Tech, Baylor, TCU, and... West Virginia. WVU may get a call from somewhere (not the Big10, as their academics aren't up to par). I doubt they would find any value in moving to the ACC, so I doubt they go anywhere either.

It would take quite the reshuffle to kill the big 12... just like the Longhorns like it.

Kansas has three things that work for them for any of the other conferences--they are a basketball power, they have a nice market that loves college sports (KC), and they are a member of the prestigious AAU academic research community. The B1G is made up of all AAU members, except Nebraska, which was an AAU school when they moved over originally, but got dropped out. KU would also give the other conferences a CST partner, which would help the B1G, Pac, and ACC--I'm assuming that Mizzou will block KU from ever getting any SEC invite.

MeanGreenTexan · January 20, 2016

13 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Kansas has three things that work for them for any of the other conferences--they are a basketball power, they have a nice market that loves college sports (KC), and they are a member of the prestigious AAU academic research community. The B1G is made up of all AAU members, except Nebraska, which was an AAU school when they moved over originally, but got dropped out. KU would also give the other conferences a CST partner, which would help the B1G, Pac, and ACC--I'm assuming that Mizzou will block KU from ever getting any SEC invite.

Kansas brings a big reputation to Basketball, and with their brief run of success in the 2000's, maybe the B1G would see them as more valuable than, say Purdue... so they could join. They're going to need to get their football team to somewhat-respectable for a while before they will have a real shot though, IMO.

untjim1995 · January 20, 2016

6 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Kansas brings a big reputation to Basketball, and with their brief run of success in the 2000's, maybe the B1G would see them as more valuable than, say Purdue... so they could join. They're going to need to get their football team to somewhat-respectable for a while before they will have a real shot though, IMO.

In a weird way, I could also see these leagues liking KU MORE because their football team is so bad. It brings in a team that won't be challenging the status quo any time soon, kind of like Colorado to the Pac 12 or Rutgers to the B1G, but they bring in a good TV market, excellent revenue sport in basketball, and a very solid academic profile.

KU has friends in the Pac-12 that would love to support them in Colorado, friends in the B1G in Nebraska to support them, and a sport that would attract friends in the ACC. I still believe that KU will be in the B1G within 8 years, probably with OU. I used to think the Pac would get the Texoma Four, but I think OU, would love to have the Nebraska game back, plus keep Kansas as a travel partner, and keep UT as an OOC rivalry, as well as OSU, too. Ironically, I could see OSU getting into the SEC if this happens, as well as KSU. Texas going independent in football just seems too logical at this point, since the LHN is in full gear until 2031 for $15 million a year. They could play Baylor, Tech, TCU, and OU still, as well as any of the other Big XII schools that want to still play them, plus games with fellow independents ND and BYU, and other Power conference teams, too.

If that occurred, the remnants of the Big XII would be Tech, BU, TCU, ISU, and WVU. Almost overnight, UConn, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, USF, UCF, and Tulane would be Big XII members, which would at this point just be a newer version of the AAC, a non-power league with former P5 teams in it. SMU would get blocked by TCU, Baylor, and Tech.

The AAC would probably respond by adding one F_U, MUTS, Rice, UMass, Marshall, USM, and La Tech to replace those that left. We would get blocked by SMU. CUSA would then add ULL, Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State to get to 12 members again. UTSA blocks Texas State. UTEP blocks NMSU. UAB blocks USA and Troy.

Ahhh, the wonderful world of keeping your place on the totem pole of college athletics...

forevereagle · January 20, 2016

32 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Kansas brings a big reputation to Basketball, and with their brief run of success in the 2000's, maybe the B1G would see them as more valuable than, say Purdue... so they could join. They're going to need to get their football team to somewhat-respectable for a while before they will have a real shot though, IMO.

Football probably needs to improve, but Rutgers and Maryland got in on their looks already, so I am not entirely convinced the Big 10 is too hung up on football alone.