Future strength of Texas teams

casual fan · January 18, 2016

I don't know if you saw the top 100 Texas recruits in Sunday's DMN. What I found interesting was the breakdown of the Texas schools.

Baylor 13 with 3 ranked top 100 nationally

A & M 13 with 1 ranked top 100 nationally

TCU 8

Texas 7 with 1 ranked top 100 nationally

Houston 6 with 2 ranked top 100 nationally

Texas Tech 2

Shockingly Oklahoma only had 2 with 0 nationally.

Baylor, TCU, and Houston are clearly capitalizing on the past couple of seasons.

There were 21 players still undecided.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

35 minutes ago, casual fan said:

I don't know if you saw the top 100 Texas recruits in Sunday's DMN. What I found interesting was the breakdown of the Texas schools.

Baylor 13 with 3 ranked top 100 nationally

A & M 13 with 1 ranked top 100 nationally

TCU 8

Texas 7 with 1 ranked top 100 nationally

Houston 6 with 2 ranked top 100 nationally

Texas Tech 2

Shockingly Oklahoma only had 2 with 0 nationally.

Baylor, TCU, and Houston are clearly capitalizing on the past couple of seasons.

There were 21 players still undecided.

Its kind of funny to me--I'd think you could easily pull some of the UH recruits just by telling them that Herman won't be coaching there after next season, most likely, just like Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin left for greener pastures.

Baylor and TCU are here to stay, though, as long as their coaches are in place and they aren't caught doing anything that causes probation.

HarringtonFishSmeller · January 18, 2016

6 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Its kind of funny to me--I'd think you could easily pull some of the UH recruits just by telling them that Herman won't be coaching there after next season, most likely, just like Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin left for greener pastures.

Baylor and TCU are here to stay, though, as long as their coaches are in place and they aren't caught doing anything that causes probation.

Houston thinks they are going Big 12. So, they are telling recruits that.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

3 minutes ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Houston thinks they are going Big 12. So, they are telling recruits that.

I think I'm gonna win the lottery. So, I tell other women that.

HarringtonFishSmeller · January 18, 2016

2 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I think I'm gonna win the lottery. So, I tell other women that.

They've got a T. Boone Pickens-like alum now that is supposedly shoveling them money. He's trying to buy Houston's way into the Big 12.

MeanGreenTexan · January 18, 2016

21 minutes ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

They've got a T. Boone Pickens-like alum now that is supposedly shoveling them money. He's trying to buy Houston's way into the Big 12.

Except his company just landed in hot water after a data breach. I expect his donations to UH to slow down quite a bit at least until any litigation is over.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

Just now, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

They've got a T. Boone Pickens-like alum now that is supposedly shoveling them money. He's trying to buy Houston's way into the Big 12.

Yeah, they call him Uncle Tillman, or some such...

Houston's only problem is its location. No SEC or Big XII team will add them because they already have those TV markets. The Pac 12 might come calling, but its far more likely that they will wait until the Big XII implodes to add teams in the CST zone, combining schools from Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas to go west. The ACC is basically the same way--they can find better teams to add to the mix that fits their geography in a much better fashion, such as Cincy or UConn, or they could wait for the Big XII implosion and pick up WVU fairly easily, as well as Cincy or UConn.

I still think when its all said and done, there are two Power possibilities. The 4 remaining leagues go to 16 team conferences. Schools like Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State get left behind to go to the MWC or AAC. Or we go to 18 team conferences, with 9-team divisions, that will be at play. Right now, we have 64 teams if you don't add in BYU and ND. That gives you 8 teams to move up. I figure that Cincy and UConn are at the top of that list, so that goes to 66 teams. Let's say that BYU and ND don't have to join a conference, but still have Power status, so at best, USF, UCF, ECU, Memphis, Houston, Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and UNLV all fight for those extra slots.

If I wanted to try and figure out who goes where, I'd bet the Texoma Four go west to the Pac16, who then add UNLV and Boise State (chances are almost nil on this, but for argument's sake, we will start there...). Kansas, KSU, ISU and UConn go the B1G. The SEC goes hard for these schools in the current ACC where they want TV share--NC State, Va Tech, and add in WVU and Pitt. The ACC then picks up ECU to replace NC State, Cincy to replace Pitt, Memphis, and USF. That gives you 4 18 team leagues--plus ND and BYU. And all of this paragraph is trying to figure out how to add in programs who are G5 now, which is astronomically low in even remotely happening.

HarringtonFishSmeller · January 18, 2016

3 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Except his company just landed in hot water after a data breach. I expect his donations to UH to slow down quite a bit at least until any litigation is over.

Data Breach is insured...if he bought a cyber liability policy with data breach coverage. Most people don't because..."It'll never happen to me."

3 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Yeah, they call him Uncle Tillman, or some such...

Houston's only problem is its location. No SEC or Big XII team will add them because they already have those TV markets. The Pac 12 might come calling, but its far more likely that they will wait until the Big XII implodes to add teams in the CST zone, combining schools from Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas to go west. The ACC is basically the same way--they can find better teams to add to the mix that fits their geography in a much better fashion, such as Cincy or UConn, or they could wait for the Big XII implosion and pick up WVU fairly easily, as well as Cincy or UConn.

I still think when its all said and done, there are two Power possibilities. The 4 remaining leagues go to 16 team conferences. Schools like Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State get left behind to go to the MWC or AAC. Or we go to 18 team conferences, with 9-team divisions, that will be at play. Right now, we have 64 teams if you don't add in BYU and ND. That gives you 8 teams to move up. I figure that Cincy and UConn are at the top of that list, so that goes to 66 teams. Let's say that BYU and ND don't have to join a conference, but still have Power status, so at best, USF, UCF, ECU, Memphis, Houston, Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and UNLV all fight for those extra slots.

If I wanted to try and figure out who goes where, I'd bet the Texoma Four go west to the Pac16, who then add UNLV and Boise State (chances are almost nil on this, but for argument's sake, we will start there...). Kansas, KSU, ISU and UConn go the B1G. The SEC goes hard for these schools in the current ACC where they want TV share--NC State, Va Tech, and add in WVU and Pitt. The ACC then picks up ECU to replace NC State, Cincy to replace Pitt, Memphis, and USF. That gives you 4 18 team leagues--plus ND and BYU. And all of this paragraph is trying to figure out how to add in programs who are G5 now, which is astronomically low in even remotely happening.

Yes, But, when we're talking the recruiting game, this is something Houston now has to sell: "We're trying to get there, here are the news articles, here is our money man...etc., etc."

Whether it ever happens or not is irrelevant in this year's recruiting battles.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

4 minutes ago, HarringtonFishSmeller said:

Data Breach is insured...if he bought a cyber liability policy with data breach coverage. Most people don't because..."It'll never happen to me."

Yes, But, when we're talking the recruiting game, this is something Houston now has to sell: "We're trying to get there, here are the news articles, here is our money man...etc., etc."

Whether it ever happens or not is irrelevant in this year's recruiting battles.

Very true on the recruiting battle front.

I still believe that UH's football future will involve independence that somehow gets Power League acceptance, ala BYU and ND.

Edited January 18, 2016 by untjim1995

HarringtonFishSmeller · January 18, 2016

I know we all know our problem: Nothing to sell but hope.

Well...again, I do like Seth Littrell. He seems like a really solid guy. But, the truth is, he wasn't a household name. And, most kids probably had no idea how well (or poor) North Carolina's football team was doing of late...or Indiana or Arizona.

That's just the hard facts of recruiting life we'll have to push through as a program.

My real hope for Littrell is that he somehow gets the guys on the roster this year to play above their potential and start a tradition on not sucking. In my eyes, this is more of a "how well can you coach this group of kids to believe they can do it" than "we'll recruit our way out of this mess" type of job right now.

We've got one year with this kid from Allen at QB, then...we're back to square one at QB development.

GOMG2013 · January 18, 2016

Houston has capitalized on great timing, a great recruiting strategy, and great marketing. I have heard several coaches over the years talk about building a fence around the houston area and keeping local talent home the past 20+ years.

Herman is the first one that looks like he will succeed. Levine was a great recruiter in the area. Sumlin had success too. Neither one was as aggressive and confident as herman and staff. It's more than throwing an offer at a recruit just in case he wants to stay home. They went with a mindset to recruit those that had offers from baylor, ut, a&m etc. Herman also put together a top staff that knows the area inside out.

The biggest thing they did was with the HTOWN takeover. They got a few local recruits to buy in and it took off. Local Houston kids love houston, and for the most part, the city returns the love. Herman used that HTOWN proud to his advantage. It doesn't matter how many people get on a message board and talk about how dirty or dangerous houston is. The kids have embraced it. The houston rap scene has embraced it. They have even embraced the 3rd ward defense. Local rappers are coming, Hermann is getting a grill...it has taken off.

Even if Herman is hired away, as long as UH keeps the houston proud thing going, it will be relevant. Only thing that can really stop it is what stopped it last time, and that was being put on probation.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

13 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

Houston has capitalized on great timing, a great recruiting strategy, and great marketing. I have heard several coaches over the years talk about building a fence around the houston area and keeping local talent home the past 20+ years.

Herman is the first one that looks like he will succeed. Levine was a great recruiter in the area. Sumlin had success too. Neither one was as aggressive and confident as herman and staff. It's more than throwing an offer at a recruit just in case he wants to stay home. They went with a mindset to recruit those that had offers from baylor, ut, a&m etc. Herman also put together a top staff that knows the area inside out.

The biggest thing they did was with the HTOWN takeover. They got a few local recruits to buy in and it took off. Local Houston kids love houston, and for the most part, the city returns the love. Herman used that HTOWN proud to his advantage. It doesn't matter how many people get on a message board and talk about how dirty or dangerous houston is. The kids have embraced it. The houston rap scene has embraced it. They have even embraced the 3rd ward defense. Local rappers are coming, Hermann is getting a grill...it has taken off.

Even if Herman is hired away, as long as UH keeps the houston proud thing going, it will be relevant. Only thing that can really stop it is what stopped it last time, and that was being put on probation.

Until UT hires Herman next year and gets a lot of those kids to go to Austin again, like Mack did in his heyday...its almost guaranteed to me that he will replace Charlie Strong after this next season, unless UT somehow wins 9 games or more. With games outside of Austin at Cal, OU, OSU, Tech, KSU, plus home games against Notre Dame, WVU, Baylor, and TCU, that doesn't really add up to 9 wins, especially with the QBs and the OL they have been rolling with.

Herman knows that having one more solid season like he just did at UH is going to be just like what Brian Kelly got after getting Cincy to two straight BCS games--a gig at one of the true bluebloods of the sport that has tons of cash.

laxtonto · January 18, 2016

Lets also not forget to accredit a ton of the UH recruiting success for them hiring a particular HS coach on their staff..

GOMG2013 · January 18, 2016

28 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Until UT hires Herman next year and gets a lot of those kids to go to Austin again, like Mack did in his heyday...its almost guaranteed to me that he will replace Charlie Strong after this next season, unless UT somehow wins 9 games or more. With games outside of Austin at Cal, OU, OSU, Tech, KSU, plus home games against Notre Dame, WVU, Baylor, and TCU, that doesn't really add up to 9 wins, especially with the QBs and the OL they have been rolling with.

Herman knows that having one more solid season like he just did at UH is going to be just like what Brian Kelly got after getting Cincy to two straight BCS games--a gig at one of the true bluebloods of the sport that has tons of cash.

The HTOWN takeover will not be abandoned by the next coach though. This is nothing new to UH. Phi slama jama had its heyday when a group of local kids decided to stay home. 70s, 80s, 90s UH football was successfull when area kids stayed home.

People think UH will fall off when herman leaves. They thought the same when BrIles and Sumlin left too. As long as the next coach continues the HTOWN recruiting thing going, they will continue to have nice recruiting classes.

wardly · January 18, 2016

Why does anyone think the Big 12 will implode? Just asking.

untjim1995 · January 18, 2016

10 minutes ago, wardly said:

Why does anyone think the Big 12 will implode? Just asking.

Because it cannot exist when the league won't create a network since its prize milk cow, UT, has its own and won't give up the $15 million a year that comes with it. The number of eyeballs outside of Texas are few, except for Kansas City, meaning the next TV deal isn't going up. And the other leagues are all viewed more favorably by the media than the Big 12, mostly because of the 10 teams it is stuck at.

The Big 12 has about 8 years left, max. Its basically the new Big East, the worst power conference that will eventually get absorbed by the better leagues. The ACC has better TV markets, the SEC and B1G have the larger followings, and the Pac has the history, as well as TV markets on its side. Flyover country will lose out every time in that argument.

NT93 · January 19, 2016

3 hours ago, wardly said:

Why does everyone think the Big 12 will implode? Just asking.

:)

ChristopherRyanWilkes · January 19, 2016

7 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Except his company just landed in hot water after a data breach. I expect his donations to UH to slow down quite a bit at least until any litigation is over.

I think he'll be fine, they were netting over a billion a year revenue at one point. He's supposedly worth a couple billion. Would be nice to have a donor at that level, I heard Brint Ryan does pretty well (understatement); doubt its Landry's level though. Speaking of T.Boone, I always thought it'd be great for us to have a big Oil & Gas guy as a donor with our location in Texas... I work for one and he's done wonders for one of the schools on this list.

GMG24 · January 19, 2016

Just now, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

I think he'll be fine, they were netting over a billion a year revenue at one point. He's supposedly worth a couple billion. Would be nice to have a donor at that level, I heard Brint Ryan does pretty well (understatement); doubt its Landry's level though. Speaking of T.Boone, I always thought it'd be great for us to have a big Oil & Gas guy as a donor with our location in Texas... I work for one and he's done wonders for one of the schools on this list.

Tell him to come to NT..

ChristopherRyanWilkes · January 19, 2016

8 minutes ago, GMG24 said:

Tell him to come to NT..

As I said that I remembered C. Dan Smith is an oil & gas man too and up there with Brint Ryan. Not quite T. Boone level but few are. I wish I could, he's pretty invested in his own green Texas school.

ETA: so is Ernie Kuehne. So Oil has helped us a lot too.

Edited January 19, 2016 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

GMG24 · January 19, 2016

9 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

As I said that I remembered C. Dan Smith is an oil & gas man too and up there with Brint Ryan. Not quite T. Boone level but few are. I wish I could, he's pretty invested in his own green Texas school.

ETA: so is Ernie Kuehne. So Oil has helped us a lot too.

Green tx school? You got me stumped

ChristopherRyanWilkes · January 19, 2016

1 minute ago, GMG24 said:

Green tx school? You got me stumped

Baylor.

GMG24 · January 19, 2016

12 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Baylor.

Crawls into hole... Lol I see Baylor as gold and green but dang that stings, maybe wear UNT stuff around him and talk them up! Ha

Mike Jackson · January 19, 2016

5 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

The Big 12 has about 8 years left, max. Its basically the new Big East, the worst power conference that will eventually get absorbed by the better leagues. The ACC has better TV markets, the SEC and B1G have the larger followings, and the Pac has the history, as well as TV markets on its side. Flyover country will lose out every time in that argument.

I think there will be more FBS shattering changes in before we get 8 years down the road. TV money is drying up as people cut the cord. The numbers for a really great National Championship game were down. The media executives are paying attention to that. The PAC 12, SEC, and Big 10 will definitely survive because they have maintained their history and most of their rivalries. That is where the Big 12, ACC, (Big East) AAC went a foul. I could see Texas going independent. Texas has enough money and backing to play a Nortre Dame like schedule money whipping midlevel teams from the SEC, PAC 12 and SEC to play them regularly. It the perfect TV/al-cart game: sell a big game in Eastern, Central, and Pacific time zones every year. Oklahoma vs Texas continues but Oklahoma may settle for dominating a conference of leftovers. Then you have the looming bomb of pay for players on the horizon too. Only 3 types of FBS games move the attention meter for casual fan. And these are the fans media executives want to get because they already know the "diehards" are coming along regardless.

Needle Movers:

1. Inter-conference games between powerhouse schools with history (easier if one school independent)

2. Heated regional rivalry games (the little brother in rivalry need to be perceived as having a legitimate shot at winning)

3. Late season games between two 1-loss or undefeated teams.

So if a conference can show they deliver these kinds of match-up every other weekend minimum then a contract with your conference won't be that valuable. The SEC has their region of the country on lock down. While their games might not do well nationally but get they get ratings numbers like bad NFL games throughout the Southern media market that is huge for a media company. So with the leftovers you have partners/rivalries that can deliver all three needle movers in the list somewhat regularly.

Florida State - Miami* (maybe the only legitimate one that can deliver consistently)

Boston College - Pitt

All the other schools I could pick out of the ACC, Big 12, and AAC (Big East) leftovers have a rival from one the "Power 3" conferences to deliver one of needle movers.

untjim1995 · January 19, 2016

5 minutes ago, Eagle1855 said:

I don't know why you all think Herman is going anywhere if Houston continues to pay him. Patterson stuck it out at TCU and it worked out quite well for him. The grass isn't always greener and there are no assurances Texas won't win enough games (8/9) in an average league to keep Strong around. (Players love the guy + they've hired a Briles disciple to run the offense -- the major issue with Strong's entire tenure.)

UH plans to move to a better conference. Period. And whether or not it happens (I personally believe there's no scenario where they get left out of a field of 64, should the conferences ever go that direction) is less significant that the fact that they're willing to plainly state that goal while backing it up with cash and on-field performances (baseball, basketball, football). That's attractive to recruits and alums alike.

Let's hope Littrell is the catalyst we need to bring the UNT faithful out of the woodwork -- and the $$ out of their pocketbooks to keep it going once we win. And I believe we will win.

Well, I mostly feel like Herman will leave because the others before him recently have left for greener pastures. But the Patterson possibility exists. It just seems to me that Herman is a guy that will go up the food chain from UH, not stay there.