MGB: Five way-too-early predictions for 2016

foutsrouts · January 5, 2016

I think our offense will be much improved, and I think our special teams will be more special than they were last year. In other words, I think this season will hinge mostly on whether or not we can have a much improved defense along with a marked improvement from the guys along the sidelines. Since I'm not exactly sure where that much improved defense will come from, I have no freaking idea how many games we can come up with next season, but I'm not ruling out in any way of our winning 6. Luckily some of our conference mates are losing some pretty special players.

MeanGreenTexan · January 5, 2016

4 hours ago, rws69 said:

Does anybody know if Kenny Buyers plans to come back for another season after missing 2015 with injury?

Would having Jeffrey Wilson available have made a difference at the SMU game? Remember UNT was ahead late in Q3.

We open September 3 at Apogee against SMU. With a new coaching team, improvement at key positions, and a revamped offense, shouldn't we push for a huge turnout at that game? If SMU folks know about the DART / DCTA / shuttle alternative to I-35, they might even show up.

He would have helped, but our defense was not able to stop Davis from running wherever he wanted. I put Davis & Smith on the same level. Both have tools to be great, but are not very accurate.

NT93 · January 5, 2016

3 hours ago, UNT90 said:

I think the only games we have a shot in are UTEP (away game), RV's BC (home), UTSA (away), and a slight chance against SMU (home).

Anything else and you are smoking K2.

Hey, that gets us the four wins I'm predicting...I like it! LOL

Cr1028 · January 5, 2016

5 hours ago, rws69 said:

Does anybody know if Kenny Buyers plans to come back for another season after missing 2015 with injury?

Would having Jeffrey Wilson available have made a difference at the SMU game? Remember UNT was ahead late in Q3.

We open September 3 at Apogee against SMU. With a new coaching team, improvement at key positions, and a revamped offense, shouldn't we push for a huge turnout at that game? If SMU folks know about the DART / DCTA / shuttle alternative to I-35, they might even show up.

@Mean Green 93-98 took care of the first answer.

Yes, Jeffrey Wilson would've helped but he wouldn't have fixed the quarterback and playcalling problems that led to our defeat.

Yes, we should push for a huge turnout but we should be doing that for the home opener every year.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

1 hour ago, NT93 said:

Hey, that gets us the four wins I'm predicting...I like it! LOL

Those are games we have a CHAMCE to win. We won't win them all, and may not won any.

SilverEagle · January 5, 2016

20 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

Those are games we have a CHAMCE to win. We won't win them all, and may not won any.

Serious question, not being snarky. Let's go back to before Littrell was hired. What hiring scenario can you imagine and/or have in mind, that our school could realistically afford, that would cause you to believe we would have a season that would/could approach 6-6.

Because I believe that coaching itself, both in the technical sense and motivational sense, is a bigger difference maker than you seem to believe.

Edited January 5, 2016 by SilverEagle

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

9 hours ago, SilverEagle said:

Serious question, not being snarky. Let's go back to before Littrell was hired. What hiring scenario can you imagine and/or have in mind, that our school could realistically afford, that would cause you to believe we would have a season that would/could approach 6-6.

You mean Next year? I don't think that scenario exists. History states Fritz would have had the best shot, but the odds would certainly be stacked against him.

If you mean long term, the answer is very simple. UNT should have fired Rick Villarreal after Portland St. and had a new AD employed to make the hire. Again, history shows that this would have been the best possible scenario for future success for UNT football.

The fact that RV and the culture of losing remain at UNT is a huge hinderance to the possibility of future success of Littrell and whatever basketball coach we hire in 3 months.

Edited January 5, 2016 by UNT90

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

1 hour ago, Eagle1855 said:

I didn't think we'd win more than 3 games last year.

I don't think we'll win more than 3 games this year.

But hey, I welcome being surprised. It takes time to realize the fruits of the labor being sown right now. And that's okay. If 2018 is a 10-2, 11-1 year, it will all be worth it.

I think there is a very good possibility we have the exact same record, with the only win coming over RV's BC. Both UTEP and UTSA are on the road, where we have been absolutely terrible. SMU is in Denton, but they have a one year head start on UNT. Not to mention that this will be UNT's first game in a new offensive system. I think SMU wins by 2 TDs.

Funny how everyone used "SMU has to learn the new coach's system" when predicting a UNT victory last year, yet now don't see that as a hinderance for THEIR team.

UNTcrazy727 · January 5, 2016

1 minute ago, UNT90 said:

I think there is a very good possibility we have the exact same record, with the only win coming over RV's BC. Both UTEP and UTSA are on the road, where we have been absolutely terrible. SMU is in Denton, but they have a one year head start on UNT. Not to mention that this will be UNT's first game in a new offensive system. I think SMU wins by 2 TDs.

Funny how everyone used "SMU has to learn the new coach's system" when predicting a UNT victory last year, yet now don't see that as a hinderance for THEIR team.

We get it. You don't want UNT to win as long as RV is the AD.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

4 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

We get it. You don't want UNT to win as long as RV is the AD.

Stop crying because I'm not spouting rah rah bullshit. Any thinking fan knows next year is going to be an extremely challenging year, with most winnable games on the road.

This is a message board, not a freaking pep rally.

Edited January 5, 2016 by UNT90

UNTcrazy727 · January 5, 2016

Just now, UNT90 said:

Stop crying because I'm not spouting rah rah bullshit. Any thinking fan knows next year is going to be an extremely challenging year, with most winnable games on the road.

Rhis is a message board, not a freaking pep rally.

There's a balance between rah rah and shitting on your own team every chance you get. It's amazing how little effect you think Littrell and Co. will make and it has nothing to do with the coach, but the man who hired him. Very ignorant. I don't think we'll go bowling next year, but saying 1-11 or 2-10 is the most likely result next season is being overly negative and worst case scenario.

Littrell has been very successful as a coach at the highest levels, but since he's never coached at a G5 you seem to think it doesn't matter. Every coach was a first time HC at one point, but for some reason you think UNT is above giving a coach his first shot.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

2 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

There's a balance between rah rah and shitting on your own team every chance you get. It's amazing how little effect you think Littrell and Co. will make and it has nothing to do with the coach, but the man who hired him. Very ignorant. I don't think we'll go bowling next year, but saying 1-11 or 2-10 is the most likely result next season is being overly negative and worst case scenario.

Littrell has been very successful as a coach at the highest levels, but since he's never coached at a G5 you seem to think it doesn't matter. Every coach was a first time HC at one point, but for some reason you think UNT is above giving a coach his first shot.

I think the current talent level on this team makes any experience Littrell has or doesn't have simply not matter in his first year. We are going to be bad. You better be prepared.

DMac took over a 3-9 team that returned more talent and a serviceable QB. He improved it 2 wins.

If you want to jump on the rah rah train and proclaim because Littrell was a successful P5 assistant that magically improves the talent level on this team, go right ahead. But realize you are divorcing yourself from reality just to temporarily feel better about something that will enevitably disappoint you.

But whatever floats your boat.

UNTcrazy727 · January 5, 2016

7 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

I think the current talent level on this team makes any experience Littrell has or doesn't have simply not matter in his first year. We are going to be bad. You better be prepared.

DMac took over a 3-9 team that returned more talent and a serviceable QB. He improved it 2 wins.

If you want to jump on the rah rah train and proclaim because Littrell was a successful P5 assistant that magically improves the talent level on this team, go right ahead. But realize you are divorcing yourself from reality just to temporarily feel better about something that will enevitably disappoint you.

But whatever floats your boat.

DT was not a serviceable QB until 2013. Don't let that one average year distort his whole career.

Right now, I'd say our record will be 4-8 next year. I don't think that's removing myself from reality.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

13 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

DT was not a serviceable QB until 2013. Don't let that one average year distort his whole career.

Right now, I'd say our record will be 4-8 next year. I don't think that's removing myself from reality.

We disagree.

13 minutes ago, Eagle1855 said:

I don't disagree. I also think SMU is going to be appreciably better. But I also don't really care.

Next year is an anything-better-than-nothing is a successful season for me. As in, next year is already a success because there's new life and energy in the program and it's the foundation for what is to come.

I would agree with this post completely if not for the looming presence of Rick Villarreal, who apparently isn't accountable for anything and is being treated like a tenured professor.

We will not be completely on the right path until he decides to retire, which unfortunately probably won't be until 2018.

I believe he will drag any chance at success for Littell down with him.

Eagle-96 · January 5, 2016

Coaching matters A LOT and can have a big impact on the turnaround of a team. The problem we face is we are coming off of a 1-11 season and have decent talent at only two positions(RB and CB/S). The talent at CB is promising but VERY YOUNG. Jeffrey Wilson can be dynamic but needs to hold onto the ball. We lack size, speed, fundamentals everywhere else. Littrell is coming in late in the recruiting process so we can't just expect a massive influx of freshman talent to fill the cupboards. This will be a difficult re-building process. Look, we were probably the WORST team in FBS last season. The very worst. Not bad, not decent, TERRIBLE. We experienced the most lopsided loss to an FCS team in NCAA HISTORY. We lost that game AT HOMECOMING. We lost to SMU(another candidate for the worst team). If we win 3-4 games next season it will be a major major accomplishment.

untjim1995 · January 5, 2016

1 hour ago, Eagle1855 said:

I don't disagree. I also think SMU is going to be appreciably better. But I also don't really care.

Next year is an anything-better-than-nothing is a successful season for me. As in, next year is already a success because there's new life and energy in the program and it's the foundation for what is to come.

This.

2016 is a throw-away year, w/l wise. Its got to be about two things: examining the current roster to find out who will/won't be on board with Littrell's system and to try and build up some in roads in recruiting, most likely at JUCOs immediately and taking the longer path for years to come with TX HS coaches. Don't be surprised at all to see Oklahoma HS kids get hard looks from our staff. There's a lot of talent up there that won't go to OU or OSU, but will consider Tulsa and us because of proximity to home.

If we only beat Bethune-Cookman next year, which will probably be the only game we are favored in, its still ok. To get away from the old-grandpa, Metamucil offense we ran, as well as the woe-is-me attitude that McCarney ended up having after recruiting talent here became much harder than he ever imagined it would, it all adds up to a better 2016 than last season, even if we match the same record as last season--and that is entirely possible. Littrell's energy and learning on the job will make this year more interesting than anything from last year. The only way that 2016 is a disappointment is if we go 0-12, which I don't think we will do. Bethune-Cookman isn't anywhere close to Portland State, plus the roster won't be full of quitters when we host them like it was when the team quit on the university in the worst loss in modern college football history.

Recruiting wins in 2016 are what we need to celebrate--I realize you cannot tailgate at those, which kills the segment of our fanbase that thinks RV is the greatest AD ever because his "vision" led us to open up tailgating at a university in the South (Wow!!--RV is the greatest AD ever!! He should be the AD here forever!!). Those victories in the offices of high schools and in the living rooms of recruits are the only ones that will help us climb out of the miles-long cave we are currently in. Don't worry about on-field results this year--we have to teach a new offense to a team that doesn't know a thing about wide-open game plans, as well, as to run out a defense that is probably smaller and slower than a lot of 6A high schools in Texas.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

1 hour ago, Eagle-96 said:

Coaching matters A LOT and can have a big impact on the turnaround of a team. The problem we face is we are coming off of a 1-11 season and have decent talent at only two positions(RB and CB/S). The talent at CB is promising but VERY YOUNG. Jeffrey Wilson can be dynamic but needs to hold onto the ball. We lack size, speed, fundamentals everywhere else. Littrell is coming in late in the recruiting process so we can't just expect a massive influx of freshman talent to fill the cupboards. This will be a difficult re-building process. Look, we were probably the WORST team in FBS last season. The very worst. Not bad, not decent, TERRIBLE. We experienced the most lopsided loss to an FCS team in NCAA HISTORY. We lost that game AT HOMECOMING. We lost to SMU(another candidate for the worst team). If we win 3-4 games next season it will be a major major accomplishment.

This.

GOMG2013 · January 5, 2016

So Miss went from a 3 win team to 9 wins. The 3 wins were against UNT, Alcorn, and App State. They were a bad team. In 2015 they had a lot of Jucos and transfers come together and started playing well.

Seems like we will need something similar if we want to have just a decent year.

We need this transfer QB to be the real deal. He will need to be able to pick the offense up quickly.

We will need WRs to emerge like So Miss did. This is the area we may have untapped potential. Goree, Kidsy, and Thompson will have to step up. Their numbers will improve just by the new system, but we will need at least one 1000 yard wr.

We need finney and combs to step up like so miss jucos did. It will help the LB and DL tremendously if they balled. Do they have talent? Cincy and memphis wanted combs, and finney was juco mvp. They have to have something. Add the fact that we all saw finney bring it in the spring game. It may have been coaching or scheme, but I wouldn't say these guys have no talent. We need them to break out. With the previous coaching staff, I can't call them busts yet.

Ps...we will also need help from some jucos this year too...

Eagle-96 · January 5, 2016

2 minutes ago, GOMG2013 said:

So Miss went from a 3 win team to 9 wins. The 3 wins were against UNT, Alcorn, and App State. They were a bad team. In 2015 they had a lot of Jucos and transfers come together and started playing well.

Seems like we will need something similar if we want to have just a decent year.

We need this transfer QB to be the real deal. He will need to be able to pick the offense up quickly.

We will need WRs to emerge like So Miss did. This is the area we may have untapped potential. Goree, Kidsy, and Thompson will have to step up. Their numbers will improve just by the new system, but we will need at least one 1000 yard wr.

We need finney and combs to step up like so miss jucos did. It will help the LB and DL tremendously if they balled. Do they have talent? Cincy and memphis wanted combs, and finney was juco mvp. They have to have something. Add the fact that we all saw finney bring it in the spring game. It may have been coaching or scheme, but I wouldn't say these guys have no talent. We need them to break out. With the previous coaching staff, I can't call them busts yet.

Ps...we will also need help from some jucos this year too...

Southern Miss also made the jump from 3 to 9 wins in year three of their rebuild under Monken. They went from 0-12 in 2012(under Johnson) to 1-11 in 2013 to 3-9 in 2014 to 9-4 in 2015. UNT will be in year one of our rebuild in 2016. We are what we are. We had ZERO players make the CUSA 1st and 2nd teams. That is pathetic but also very telling of the talent we posses. All the players mentioned have nothing more than potential until they actually produce. I will be interested to see Combs and Finney as JUCOs tend to really improve by their Senior year when they are more comfortable in FBS. Keep in mind that all the potential we may have will be learning new systems as well so it will be difficult indeed.

Mean Green 93-98 · January 5, 2016

19 minutes ago, Eagle-96 said:

Southern Miss also made the jump from 3 to 9 wins in year three of their rebuild under Monken. They went from 0-12 in 2012(under Johnson) to 1-11 in 2013 to 3-9 in 2014 to 9-4 in 2015. UNT will be in year one of our rebuild in 2016. We are what we are. We had ZERO players make the CUSA 1st and 2nd teams. That is pathetic but also very telling of the talent we posses. All the players mentioned have nothing more than potential until they actually produce. I will be interested to see Combs and Finney as JUCOs tend to really improve by their Senior year when they are more comfortable in FBS. Keep in mind that all the potential we may have will be learning new systems as well so it will be difficult indeed.

Every word in this post is pure truth.

GOMG2013 · January 5, 2016

4 minutes ago, Eagle-96 said:

Southern Miss also made the jump from 3 to 9 wins in year three of their rebuild under Monken. They went from 0-12 in 2012(under Johnson) to 1-11 in 2013 to 3-9 in 2014 to 9-4 in 2015. UNT will be in year one of our rebuild in 2016. We are what we are. We had ZERO players make the CUSA 1st and 2nd teams. That is pathetic but also very telling of the talent we posses. All the players mentioned have nothing more than potential until they actually produce. I will be interested to see Combs and Finney as JUCOs tend to really improve by their Senior year when they are more comfortable in FBS. Keep in mind that all the potential we may have will be learning new systems as well so it will be difficult indeed.

Year 2 for those jucos and transfers was 2015. Like you stated, year 2 is when jucos improve. So miss had 1 player on 1st and 2nd team cusa and he graduated. 2013 was the start of so miss rebuild. They went juco in 2014. They had results in 2015.

2014 was technically the start of UNTs. Results should show in 2016. Players who have been in the program 3 years should break out in 2016. Our 2015 jucos are supposed to play at a high level in 2016.

Our circumstances are different though because like some mentioned, there's no continuity with the coaching staff and the QB is still unknown. So miss played their jucos their first year too, while we let ours waste barely get reps.

Who knows if the offense and defense we ran was hindering our talent though?

Christopher Walker · January 10, 2016

The amount of vitriol GMG has for being called out on its own Stockholm Syndrome is amusing.

UNT90 · January 10, 2016

25 minutes ago, Christopher Walker said:

The amount of vitriol GMG has for being called out on its own Stockholm Syndrome is amusing.

Ya, stating the obvious ain't too popular these days. Lots of green koolaid chugging going on.

GreenTexan13 · January 11, 2016

I'd say we win 4 at least... Bethune, SMU, UTSA, UTEP (as the most realistic wins). I don't disagree with 3 to 6 wins as an outcome.... 4 wins in 2016 is a huge improvement though. I might be in a minority by saying this..., but I expect Littrell to bring us bowling and no excuses in 2017. Giving him another year or two would be way to genorous.