MGB: Five way-too-early predictions for 2016

Brett Vito · January 4, 2016

MGB:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2016/01/five-way-too-early-predictions-for-unts-2015-football-season.html/

Wag Tag · January 4, 2016

6 minutes ago, Brett Vito said:

MGB:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2016/01/five-way-too-early-predictions-for-unts-2015-football-season.html/

Like it! Give me 4 wins this season with some excitement!

untjim1995 · January 4, 2016

6 minutes ago, Brett Vito said:

MGB:

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2016/01/five-way-too-early-predictions-for-unts-2015-football-season.html/

This is pretty much spot-on. We will look better on offense, if only because we won't be running something that Amos Alonzo Stagg would have considered boring. Also, the Carthage WRs and Wilson at RB give you something on offense to complement the QB from Alabama.

But the schedule is just brutal for us right now. And the defense is till really little and slow.

If we win more than 3 games, it will be a great testament to Seth Littrell's coaching ability, which none of us know how that will go since this is his first head coaching gig.

Vito is right--2017 is where you start looking at getting back toward bowl eligibility, not this year.

UNTcrazy727 · January 4, 2016

The only reason our schedule is brutal is because we're awful. Our OOC slate is VERY favorable and UTEP, UTSA and Rice should be winnable games.

MGNation92 · January 4, 2016

Call me crazy but I think UNT will set the record again for total offense. Breaking the 2012 record of ~5300 yards or whatever it was. I also think we will have 2 receivers reach the 1k yard mark. But then again those might be pipe dreams. Here's to hope!

untjim1995 · January 4, 2016

10 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

The only reason our schedule is brutal is because we're awful. Our OOC slate is VERY favorable and UTEP, UTSA and Rice should be winnable games.

No question about us being awful--that's why UTEP and UTSA on the road are probably the only FBS teams we can compete with next year. Right now, in CUSA, USM, La Tech, Rice, Marshall, WKU, and MUTS are all waaaayyyyyy better than us right now. UTEP is just slightly better, but we play them in El Paso next year. UTSA and us are basically equal, but we play them down there. SMU is a lot like UTEP, to me--slightly better than us and UTEP, but we get them at home. Army is a lot like UTSA and us, but we play them on the road. We are, obviously, not going to beat Florida, but we should beat FCS Bethune-Cookman. We have five games we can look at as winning or competing in--Bethune-Cookman, SMU, @ Army, @ UTEP, and @ UTSA. If we know we should beat Bethune Cookman, that leaves 4 games that we can hope to win, but three are on the road. That's why I see 2-10 as very likely, 3-9 as the ceiling.

Ben Gooding · January 4, 2016

4 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

No question about us being awful--that's why UTEP and UTSA on the road are probably the only FBS teams we can compete with next year. Right now, in CUSA, USM, La Tech, Rice, Marshall, WKU, and MUTS are all waaaayyyyyy better than us right now. UTEP is just slightly better, but we play them in El Paso next year. UTSA and us are basically equal, but we play them down there. SMU is a lot like UTEP, to me--slightly better than us and UTEP, but we get them at home. Army is a lot like UTSA and us, but we play them on the road. We are, obviously, not going to beat Florida, but we should beat FCS Bethune-Cookman. We have five games we can look at as winning or competing in--Bethune-Cookman, SMU, @ Army, @ UTEP, and @ UTSA. If we know we should beat Bethune Cookman, that leaves 4 games that we can hope to win, but three are on the road. That's why I see 2-10 as very likely, 3-9 as the ceiling.

3-9 as the ceiling?? That is crazy. 4-8 is the floor and I truly believe that 7-5 is the ceiling for 2016. We are supposedly getting ready to have one of the best QB's in North Texas history. This is a game predicated on QB play, particularly in CUSA play. IF we have a QB like we are all hoping expect a much better season than last year and 3-9 is not much better than 1-11. We have 2 wins and 1 loss sitting on our schedule right now in Bethune, Army, and Florida. MUTS, So Miss, and Marshall are the teams that you can probably chalk up as L's. However, we get all 3 of those games at home. The remaining 6, toss ups. No reason why we can't compete and ultimately win those 6 games. WKU is getting ready to be in full tilt rebuild mode. Rice was bad last year and they are losing a lot of talent. Nutsack and UTEP are winnable as winnable gets. Smut is still Smut. Much like WKU, La Tech will be doing a rebuilding project in 2016. Calling 3-9 our ceiling with this schedule is head shaking. They may be the same teams, but they will not be nearly as good. We get the winnables on the road and the "harder" games at home. I like those odds.

MeanGreenTexan · January 4, 2016

I see this offense being completely different and MUCH more potent immediately. Although I agree with Brett on his 1k-yd prediction for Wilson, I also expect much more production from the WRs as a whole. Goree will probably be lined up on the outside, so for him to have a great year, we're going to need improved QB play. I expect to see Kidsey on the inside and for him to have a nice year. I also hope to see a TE emerge this year since Smith & Loving are both gone. If that's Dillman, then so be it. I'm sure with his athleticism, he could be a Gronk-type player in C-USA.

If the new defensive staff can get anything out of these guys we may be able to get to 6 wins. But I expect to lose some shootouts next season.

GOMG2013 · January 4, 2016

1 hour ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

The only reason our schedule is brutal is because we're awful. Our OOC slate is VERY favorable and UTEP, UTSA and Rice should be winnable games.

SMU too.

Mean Green 93-98 · January 4, 2016

I agree with pretty much everything. Although I think 2017 may still be a little optimistic to expect bowling.

The only part I strongly disagree with is calling it "Five way-too-early predictions for UNT’s 2015 football season," as the headline reads.

GrandGreen · January 4, 2016

It is way to early, but I think NT has an excellent chance to go even next year. Complaining about a CUSA schedule as difficult, is silly for any fb division team. NT returns a lot of an awful team. Although NT needs a lot more talent, I think the talent level is better than last year's record.

NT unfortunately lacked in the two most important parts of a football team, linebacking and Quarterback. If Littrell can find the answers there, I think this team will be substantially better. I am still intrigued with Smith. It will be interesting to see if the new staff can develop him. In any case, I expect much better QB play next year and that can quickly elevate a team.

Travis · January 4, 2016

Can we just win an away non-conference game?

MGNation92 · January 4, 2016

38 minutes ago, Travis said:

Can we just win an away game?

FTFY

rws69 · January 4, 2016

Does anybody know if Kenny Buyers plans to come back for another season after missing 2015 with injury?

Would having Jeffrey Wilson available have made a difference at the SMU game? Remember UNT was ahead late in Q3.

We open September 3 at Apogee against SMU. With a new coaching team, improvement at key positions, and a revamped offense, shouldn't we push for a huge turnout at that game? If SMU folks know about the DART / DCTA / shuttle alternative to I-35, they might even show up.

UNT90 · January 4, 2016

8 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

No question about us being awful--that's why UTEP and UTSA on the road are probably the only FBS teams we can compete with next year. Right now, in CUSA, USM, La Tech, Rice, Marshall, WKU, and MUTS are all waaaayyyyyy better than us right now. UTEP is just slightly better, but we play them in El Paso next year. UTSA and us are basically equal, but we play them down there. SMU is a lot like UTEP, to me--slightly better than us and UTEP, but we get them at home. Army is a lot like UTSA and us, but we play them on the road. We are, obviously, not going to beat Florida, but we should beat FCS Bethune-Cookman. We have five games we can look at as winning or competing in--Bethune-Cookman, SMU, @ Army, @ UTEP, and @ UTSA. If we know we should beat Bethune Cookman, that leaves 4 games that we can hope to win, but three are on the road. That's why I see 2-10 as very likely, 3-9 as the ceiling.

People don't realize that there is the distinct possibility that we go 0-12 next year, as no game on the schedule is a sure win, and I honestly think we will be an underdog in every single one.

Even the worst teams usually ally win one by accident (see: UTSA vs UNT 10/31/15), but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that UNT pulls an ofer next year.

EDIT: Every one but RV's BC. Maybe...

Edited January 5, 2016 by UNT90

GOMG2013 · January 4, 2016

Isn't there a site for depressed UNT fans. Fans that like UNT cause they have some connection, but they really hate UNT sports.

Edited January 4, 2016 by GOMG2013

Mean Green 93-98 · January 4, 2016

1 hour ago, rws69 said:

Does anybody know if Kenny Buyers plans to come back for another season after missing 2015 with injury?

Ben Gooding · January 5, 2016

1 hour ago, UNT90 said:

People don't realize that there is the distinct possibility that we go 0-12 next year, as no game on the schedule is a sure win, and I honestly think we will be an underdog in every single one.

Even the worst teams usually ally win one by accident (see: UTSA vs UNT 10/31/15), but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that UNT pulls an ofer next year.

I think you have gone crazy.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

Just now, Ben Gooding said:

I think you have gone crazy.

So, what game is a sure win in your book?

1 hour ago, GOMG2013 said:

Isn't there a site for depressed UNT fans. Fans that like UNT cause they have some connection, but they really hate UNT sports.

Again, sometimes you have to tolerate opposing opinions.

Try starting here.

Ben Gooding · January 5, 2016

Just now, UNT90 said:

So, what game is a sure win in your book?

Bethune, Army, Nutsack, and believe it or not La Tech (of course unless they go 3 for 3 on transfer QB's). There is a reason they keep having to go after these transfers. Eventually, they are going to have to settle with a young guy like So Miss had to go a few years ago or a crappy QB like we had to this year. I think that year for them is this year. Also, Dixon isn't a guy you just replace.

I think a lot of people on here are overestimating Alec Morris' capabilities. But I also think a few such as myself and you are underestimating his capabilities. I think we hit a home run on this transfer (for once) and it will have a huge payoff for us similar to Sokol for La Tech in 2014. If we get a guy in here that can and probably will throw for 3K it will do wonders for our defense. This team is going to be considerably better.

NT93 · January 5, 2016

8 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

The only reason our schedule is brutal is because we're awful. Our OOC slate is VERY favorable and UTEP, UTSA and Rice should be winnable games.

I think it's a difficult schedule from the standpoint that we have to play the top 3 schools from the East.

I do agree that the OOC is about as good as its ever been as far as games being winnable (or at least not being body baggers). It'd be really nice to have this schedule when/if we have a good team..

1 hour ago, UNT90 said:

People don't realize that there is the distinct possibility that we go 0-12 next year, as no game on the schedule is a sure win, and I honestly think we will be an underdog in every single one.

Even the worst teams usually ally win one by accident (see: UTSA vs UNT 10/31/15), but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that UNT pulls an ofer next year.

While true, I think we will probably only be slight underdogs in most games. No one is a sure win, but there are very few sure losses as well.

I think 4 wins is gonna be my personal over/under. More than that and I'm happy, less and I'm a little disappointed.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

1 minute ago, Ben Gooding said:

Bethune, Army, Nutsack, and believe it or not La Tech (of course unless they go 3 for 3 on transfer QB's). There is a reason they keep having to go after these transfers. Eventually, they are going to have to settle with a young guy like So Miss had to go a few years ago or a crappy QB like we had to this year. I think that year for them is this year. Also, Dixon isn't a guy you just replace.

I think a lot of people on here are overestimating Alec Morris' capabilities. But I also think a few such as myself and you are underestimating his capabilities. I think we hit a home run on this transfer (for once) and it will have a huge payoff for us similar to Sokol for La Tech in 2014. If we get a guy in here that can and probably will throw for 3K it will do wonders for our defense. This team is going to be considerably better.

If Morris throws for 3k, we will win 2 or 3 games, but he is a complete unknown that couldn't break the 2 deep at Bama in 4 years. Far from a sure thing.

Other than the RV version of BC at home, no other game is even close to a sure thing. And after what happened with Portland St., there is no guarantee that a team trying to learn a new offensive system will win that game.

Its a possibility. I would put the odds at about 10% that it happens, but it's stil a very real possibility.

5 minutes ago, NT93 said:

I think it's a difficult schedule from the standpoint that we have to play the top 3 schools from the East.

I do agree that the OOC is about as good as its ever been as far as games being winnable (or at least not being body baggers). It'd be really nice to have this schedule when/if we have a good team..

While true, I think we will probably only be slight underdogs in most games. No one is a sure win, but there are very few sure losses as well.

I think 4 wins is gonna be my personal over/under. More than that and I'm happy, less and I'm a little disappointed.

I think the only games we have a shot in are UTEP (away game), RV's BC (home), UTSA (away), and a slight chance against SMU (home).

Anything else and you are smoking K2.

Ben Gooding · January 5, 2016

8 minutes ago, UNT90 said:

If Morris throws for 3k, we will win 2 or 3 games, but he is a complete unknown that couldn't break the 2 deep at Bama in 4 years. Far from a sure thing.

Other than the RV version of BC at home, no other game is even close to a sure thing. And after what happened with Portland St., there is no guarantee that a team trying to learn a new offensive system will win that game.

Its a possibility. I would put the odds at about 10% that it happens, but it's stil a very real possibility.

I think the only games we have a shot in are UTEP (away game), RV's BC (home), UTSA (away), and a slight chance against SMU (home).

Anything else and you are smoking K2.

Bold = Crazy. That is a 250 average and with a sound RB getting his touches mixed in with other backs that is well over 400 yards of offense a game. If he throws for a little over 3K we are a 5 win team and maybe depending on how a few teams fill their losses a 6 or 7 win team.

UNT90 · January 5, 2016

7 minutes ago, Ben Gooding said:

Bold = Crazy. That is a 250 average and with a sound RB getting his touches mixed in with other backs that is well over 400 yards of offense a game. If he throws for a little over 3K we are a 5 win team and maybe depending on how a few teams fill their losses a 6 or 7 win team.

There is another side of the ball. I know you weren't around for the Dodge years, but we once had a QB throw for 600 in a game and lost by double digits.

I would be shocked if Morris threw for 2200.

Hope I'm shocked