MGB: Pre-spring questions series No. 2 -- Is the talent there?

Brett Vito · December 26, 2015

MGB: UNT didn't have a single first- or second-team All-C-USA pick and is behind in recruiting after 1-11 year

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/12/pre-spring-questions-series-no-2-does-unt-have-enough-talent.html/

GOMG2013 · December 26, 2015

I'm not sure what some mean by the talent is not there. Mac was blasted by questioning the talent when he arrived.

But now UNT fans says there is no talent this time. Sure, there are holes to fill, but no talent? I would like to see a comparison list of the projected starters for this year, vs the 2013 team. I know recruiting isn't an exact science, but if we are talking about talent evaluation, how would a comparison of offer lists look with 2013 vs 2016?

There may have been some experience issues, system issues, coaching failures, development issues, etc...but our projected 2016 lineup is filled with players that other schools wanted too. Are all these scouts and so called experts horrible at talent evaluation?...or is it a coincidence all the duds ended up at UNT at the same time?

BillySee58 · December 26, 2015

I'm not sure what some mean by the talent is not there. Mac was blasted by questioning the talent when he arrived.
But now UNT fans says there is no talent this time. Sure, there are holes to fill, but no talent? I would like to see a comparison list of the projected starters for this year, vs the 2013 team. I know recruiting isn't an exact science, but if we are talking about talent evaluation, how would a comparison of offer lists look with 2013 vs 2016?
There may have been some experience issues, system issues, coaching failures, development issues, etc...but our projected 2016 lineup is filled with players that other schools wanted too. Are all these scouts and so called experts horrible at talent evaluation?...or is it a coincidence all the duds ended up at UNT at the same time?

I've talked about my rating system for recruits based on offer lists. I've also talked about my 3 preseason criteria for our players to be all-CUSA.

Those 3 criteria have been:

1. Be at least a relatively highly recruited player. Usually "B+" offer list or better (about 5 FBS offers or more).

2. Have a year of starting experience or a good amount of starting experience and rotational experience coming into the year.

3. Not be a bust. Offer list is kind of irrelevant if they are not living up to that/peaked early.

Coming into last year we had exactly 0 players who fit that criteria. We had exactly 0 players make the all-CUSA 1st or 2nd team. In 2013 we had 6 all-CUSA 1st or 2nd team players, and 5 of them fit into all 3 of those criteria heading into the year (Orr, Bellazin, Trice, Y'Barbo, Lemon). The only one who didn't was Brelan Chancellor, but small skill players seem to be an exception to the offer list thing. They are lightly recruited because they're small, but they're job is to catch the ball and make people miss. Not impose their size on people.

Coming into 2016 we now have some players who fit all 3 of those criteria, or at least semi-fit all three. Chad Davis, Jareid Combs, James Gray, Jeff Wilson, Chris Miles, Darvin Kidsy, Tee Goree to name some. Davis, Gray, and Wilson probably fit those 3 criteria the best, with Miles not too far behind but he's still young as a RS Sophomore O-linemen, which is hard to make it as.

And then some good players who do not fit criteria number 1 but have played and produced plenty in Kenny Buyers, Kaydon Kirby, and Kishawn Mcclain. There's a better chance going into 2016 then there was going into 2015, at least according to this.

UNT90 · December 26, 2015

I've talked about my rating system for recruits based on offer lists. I've also talked about my 3 preseason criteria for our players to be all-CUSA.
Those 3 criteria have been:
1. Be at least a relatively highly recruited player. Usually "B+" offer list or better (about 5 FBS offers or more).
2. Have a year of starting experience or a good amount of starting experience and rotational experience coming into the year.
3. Not be a bust. Offer list is kind of irrelevant if they are not living up to that/peaked early.
Coming into last year we had exactly 0 players who fit that criteria. We had exactly 0 players make the all-CUSA 1st or 2nd team. In 2013 we had 6 all-CUSA 1st or 2nd team players, and 5 of them fit into all 3 of those criteria heading into the year (Orr, Bellazin, Trice, Y'Barbo, Lemon). The only one who didn't was Brelan Chancellor, but small skill players seem to be an exception to the offer list thing. They are lightly recruited because they're small, but they're job is to catch the ball and make people miss. Not impose their size on people.
Coming into 2016 we now have some players who fit all 3 of those criteria, or at least semi-fit all three. Chad Davis, Jareid Combs, James Gray, Jeff Wilson, Chris Miles, Darvin Kidsy, Tee Goree to name some. Davis, Gray, and Wilson probably fit those 3 criteria the best, with Miles not too far behind but he's still young as a RS Sophomore O-linemen, which is hard to make it as.
And then some good players who do not fit criteria number 1 but have played and produced plenty in Kenny Buyers, Kaydon Kirby, and Kishawn Mcclain. There's a better chance going into 2016 then there was going into 2015, at least according to this.

Any receiver on that list needs to be crossed off. Not because they aren't capable of being all-conference, but because UNT doesn't have a QB who can get them the ball. Until there is a QB that meets your criteria, receivers just don't matter.

GOMG2013 · December 26, 2015

Any receiver on that list needs to be crossed off. Not because they aren't capable of being all-conference, but because UNT doesn't have a QB who can get them the ball. Until there is a QB that meets your criteria, receivers just don't matter.

i can't disagree with this. We need a grad transfer, a juco that can play, or Littrell will have to work wonders with the QBs we have.

With Littrell saying this will be our last year at home during bowl season gives me hope I guess. I'm hoping he has someone coming in, or he feels he has something to work with.

BillySee58 · December 26, 2015

Any receiver on that list needs to be crossed off. Not because they aren't capable of being all-conference, but because UNT doesn't have a QB who can get them the ball. Until there is a QB that meets your criteria, receivers just don't matter.

As it is Kidsy hasn't produced to the level he needs to for him to really fit all three criteria solidly, and same for Goree. But they were highly recruited, have some experience (not a whole lot), and have the talent. Really hoping we get the production Kidsy is capable of this year, and definitely Goree going forward.

UNT90 · December 26, 2015

As it is Kidsy hasn't produced to the level he needs to for him to really fit all three criteria solidly, and same for Goree. But they were highly recruited, have some experience (not a whole lot), and have the talent. Really hoping we get the production Kidsy is capable of this year, and definitely Goree going forward.

Can't get production from them if you have absolutely no one on your roster that can get them the ball.

That is the situation currently.

GOMG2013 · December 26, 2015

I have a question for the QB/offensive gurus out there. Smith and greer showed some signs of having talent and success in high school and juco. For some reason schools other than UNT wanted these guys.

We brought them to UNT and tried to fit a square peg into a round hole by putting them in a totally different system than the one they had success in.

Will Littrell's new offense be similar to what Greer and Smith ran in juco? In high school? If so, there still may be some hope that Littrell can get more out of these players.

FirefightnRick · December 26, 2015

Real talent and paper talent are two different things, and it's up to the coach to decide who has it and who doesn't and make something of it. There's NO telling what SL is gonna find.

Rick

SilverEagle · December 27, 2015

Real talent and paper talent are two different things, and it's up to the coach to decide who has it and who doesn't and make something of it. There's NO telling what SL is gonna find.

Rick

Or how he (and in the case of QB's, Harrell) assess what they find. In the spirit of UNT90's "realism", lets look at the QB situation.

Unless a last minute viable Juco QB pops up, OR some hot HS prospect graduated this month and is enrolling at mid-term, our coaching staff is "realistically" tasked to do a complete and fair assessment of what we have now, and make a plan to improve their skills so that they can fit into their "system".

Here is what's on the roster.

#7. Conner Means (6-4) great mobility and strong arm.......accuracy is a concern.

#8 Josh Greer (6-5) average arm strength, somewhat mobile, accuracy is also a concern......except that opposing DB's like him.

#10 DaMarcus Smith (6-1) very mobile and strong runner, very strong arm, accuracy/consistency is also a concern. Opposing DB's also like him.

#11 Sam Wells (listed as DB, but arrived as a QB) (6') if he's been moved to DB, then he should be considered "mobile". The few times I saw him throw, he had slightly above average arm strength.

#13 Josh Cousins (6-1), pretty mobile and average-to-above-average arm strength.

#15 Caleb Chumley (6-5), mobile, strong arm, no evidence of anything approaching "polish" as a QB. IMHO, should be moved to TE.....or DE.....or even DT.

#19 Quinn Shanbour (6', more like 5-10/11) quickest release of the group and pretty accurate. Not sure about mobility, but hear from more than one sources that he is. Height is a concern. Supposedly the smartest of the group.

#86 Kevin Dillman (was a QB prospect up until his senior year) (6-4) Have only seen him throw the ball in recruitment videos. Seems very mobile.

Based on what we've seen of North Carolina's offense and Washington State's yesterday in the Sun Bowl, who has the best chance of fitting in to the "new" system?

GOMG2013 · December 27, 2015

Or how he (and in the case of QB's, Harrell) assess what they find. In the spirit of UNT90's "realism", lets look at the QB situation.
Unless a last minute viable Juco QB pops up, OR some hot HS prospect graduated this month and is enrolling at mid-term, our coaching staff is "realistically" tasked to do a complete and fair assessment of what we have now, and make a plan to improve their skills so that they can fit into their "system".
Here is what's on the roster.
#7. Conner Means (6-4) great mobility and strong arm.......accuracy is a concern.
#8 Josh Greer (6-5) average arm strength, somewhat mobile, accuracy is also a concern......except that opposing DB's like him.
#10 DaMarcus Smith (6-1) very mobile and strong runner, very strong arm, accuracy/consistency is also a concern. Opposing DB's also like him.
#11 Sam Wells (listed as DB, but arrived as a QB) (6') if he's been moved to DB, then he should be considered "mobile". The few times I saw him throw, he had slightly above average arm strength.
#13 Josh Cousins (6-1), pretty mobile and average-to-above-average arm strength.
#15 Caleb Chumley (6-5), mobile, strong arm, no evidence of anything approaching "polish" as a QB. IMHO, should be moved to TE.....or DE.....or even DT.
#19 Quinn Shanbour (6', more like 5-10/11) quickest release of the group and pretty accurate. Not sure about mobility, but hear from more than one sources that he is. Height is a concern. Supposedly the smartest of the group.
#86 Kevin Dillman (was a QB prospect up until his senior year) (6-4) Have only seen him throw the ball in recruitment videos. Seems very mobile.

Based on what we've seen of North Carolina's offense and Washington State's yesterday in the Sun Bowl, who has the best chance of fitting in to the "new" system?

based on what you listed, shanbour. Arm strength is not as important as ability to read defenses and get rid of the ball quickly.

Its about lining up and taking what the defense gives you, as quick as possible. Didn't see the QB run much, so only mobility needed is to move the pocket and avoid pressure.

Accuracy needs to be good from 10-20 yards with a few shots deep when the matchup calls for it.

Unless Littrell modifies the offense to take advantage of demarcus running ability, he may struggle. His timing and touch, even for short passes, was awful. It can get better with spring and lots more reps, but can he read defenses? If he can pick up the system and add the legitimate threat of a QB running, it can be a very explosive offense.

TheReal_jayD · December 27, 2015

Or how he (and in the case of QB's, Harrell) assess what they find. In the spirit of UNT90's "realism", lets look at the QB situation.
Unless a last minute viable Juco QB pops up, OR some hot HS prospect graduated this month and is enrolling at mid-term, our coaching staff is "realistically" tasked to do a complete and fair assessment of what we have now, and make a plan to improve their skills so that they can fit into their "system".
Here is what's on the roster.
#7. Conner Means (6-4) great mobility and strong arm.......accuracy is a concern.
#8 Josh Greer (6-5) average arm strength, somewhat mobile, accuracy is also a concern......except that opposing DB's like him.
#10 DaMarcus Smith (6-1) very mobile and strong runner, very strong arm, accuracy/consistency is also a concern. Opposing DB's also like him.
#11 Sam Wells (listed as DB, but arrived as a QB) (6') if he's been moved to DB, then he should be considered "mobile". The few times I saw him throw, he had slightly above average arm strength.
#13 Josh Cousins (6-1), pretty mobile and average-to-above-average arm strength.
#15 Caleb Chumley (6-5), mobile, strong arm, no evidence of anything approaching "polish" as a QB. IMHO, should be moved to TE.....or DE.....or even DT.
#19 Quinn Shanbour (6', more like 5-10/11) quickest release of the group and pretty accurate. Not sure about mobility, but hear from more than one sources that he is. Height is a concern. Supposedly the smartest of the group.
#86 Kevin Dillman (was a QB prospect up until his senior year) (6-4) Have only seen him throw the ball in recruitment videos. Seems very mobile.

Based on what we've seen of North Carolina's offense and Washington State's yesterday in the Sun Bowl, who has the best chance of fitting in to the "new" system?

Quinn Shanbour has a little Baker Mayfield/ Johnny Football in his game

http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1559928/highlights/23300390/v2

Christopher Walker · December 27, 2015

#19 Quinn Shanbour (6', more like 5-10/11) quickest release of the group and pretty accurate. Not sure about mobility, but hear from more than one sources that he is. Height is a concern. Supposedly the smartest of the group.

I can recall two Spring camps now where you and I have stood there observing QB drills, looked at each other and agreed that Shanbour has "it."

Also recall from the article yesterday on the Florida HS QB prospect we're courting... He goes to the same pro camps yearly that Shabour does.

I really hope he gets his shot.

oldguystudent · December 27, 2015

I really hope he gets his shot.

The nepotism and lame excuses are over. If the kid can play, he'll get his shot.

UNTcrazy727 · December 27, 2015

Another Brett Vito love letter to Derek Thompson. He really needs to move on. At this point it's just creepy.

And no one considered having DT back as a plus going into 2013. He was flat out bad his junior year.

UNT90 · December 27, 2015

Another Brett Vito love letter to Derek Thompson. He really needs to move on. At this point it's just creepy.
And no one considered having DT back as a plus going into 2013. He was flat out bad his junior year.

He was a plus because we knew we had something. He became so much more with a really good senior season in a really terrible offensive scheme.

I credit DT for finding a way to make that terrible offense work better than anyone since him has been able to do.

MeanGreenTexan · December 27, 2015

I think there's something there with Smith.
I think we're going to see a renaissance from him this season simply because of the system.
I'm hoping the same as well from Kidsey, Smiley, Goree, etc... Miles' improvement as well as everyone else on the O-Line will be critical.

Now, defensively... who knows. I don't know that I'm thrilled with Ekeler, but I guess we'll see. There are holes everywhere on the defensive side of the ball.

Mean Green 93-98 · December 27, 2015

I'm pretty sure Cousins has used up his eligibility.

BillySee58 · December 27, 2015

I'm pretty sure Cousins has used up his eligibility.

He was listed as a sophomore last year, fwiw. I believe he graduated high school in 2012, which should've made him a redshirt junior last year.

Mean Green 93-98 · December 27, 2015

He was listed as a sophomore last year, fwiw. I believe he graduated high school in 2012, which should've made him a redshirt junior last year.

UNTcrazy727 · December 27, 2015

He was a plus because we knew we had something. He became so much more with a really good senior season in a really terrible offensive scheme.
I credit DT for finding a way to make that terrible offense work better than anyone since him has been able to do.

He wasn't even the starter heading into fall camp. He was not a "plus" going into the season like Orr and Chancellor. And his numbers don't show a "really good" senior year. Unless, we're judging him by our laughable UNT standards.

BillySee58 · December 27, 2015

This is his fourth year out of high school, so there's a good chance he's just graduating and is choosing not to play anymore. So technically he has eligibility left but I don't think anyone would blame him for starting his professional career vs coming back to be a scout team QB again.

UNT90 · December 27, 2015

He wasn't even the starter heading into fall camp. He was not a "plus" going into the season like Orr and Chancellor. And his numbers don't show a "really good" senior year. Unless, we're judging him by our laughable UNT standards.

He will be in the UNT hall of fame, so...