About that hing of whether UNT fans come when we are winning. Some fairly clear data

outoftown · December 10, 2015

So some people (RV) have been claiming that people did not come when UNT was winning. Now forgive me, but with the history of UNT I think we should forgive people if they don't get excited if all we win is one FBS and one FCS game. So I went back to 2005, and looked at the average yearly home game attendance (found it for 2003, did not change much, but I'd be happy to add data if somebody could get me earlier attendance averages). Then I looked at what percentage of home games we were going into on at least a 2 or 3+ game winning streak vs 2 or 3+ game losing streak, because when people decide whether they will come, they do so assessing BEFORE that very game, depending on how things are looking at that very point in time. And guess what: Winning and losing streaks explained 70% of the variance (60% in more conservative models)! That leaves only like 30 to 40% for things like the weather and bad kickoff times and thursday night games.

Please nobody tell me anymore that UNT tried winning and people didn't come. Imagine where UNT would be if there were even one consistent winning season here.

Edited December 10, 2015 by outoftown

Cr1028 · December 10, 2015

Bang up job.

Ben Gooding · December 10, 2015

Great work. Imagine attendance in 2016 if we could have bookended 2014 with winning seasons. 21k record would be squashed. I think we very well might get a sellout vs SMU on Sep 3rd, pending kickoff time. We're a resilient bunch.

UNT90 · December 10, 2015

Great work. Imagine attendance in 2016 if we could have bookended 2014 with winning seasons. 21k record would be squashed. I think we very well might get a sellout vs SMU on Sep 3rd, pending kickoff time. We're a resilient bunch.

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.

SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.

I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

Edited December 10, 2015 by UNT90

Army of Dad · December 10, 2015

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.
SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.
I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

Way too early, but I'll take a shot at it and say something like 24-25 thousand.

New coach, new season, new freshmen should lead it to be better than a late losing season attendance like 16k.

untbowler · December 10, 2015

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.
SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.
I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

I might disagree, if Coach Littrell gets out into the community and speaks with many in the area, maybe UNT can drag more non-fans into the stands, there seems to be good buzz with Littrell and he is not some old retread like DMac who has to flash his past glory in front of everybody.

Community, Community, Community, oh yeah and make the damn AD work on marketing for once, not a last second crap promo

SHOSS · December 10, 2015

If the smu game is a daygame, attendance will be worse than a night game.

Btw, did anybody notice unt got a day game and smu got a night game?

Edited December 10, 2015 by SHOSS

Tyler Maryak · December 10, 2015

Facts are hard...

GreenTexan13 · December 10, 2015

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.
SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.
I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

first game of the season always gets better attendance. We have a hyped fan base with a new coach leading us into the season. I bet SMU brings a better crowd, but it won't be impressive... I think attendance might be in the low 20's. If it's a 6 pm kickoff, I'm going with Army of Dad's prediction.

Cr1028 · December 10, 2015

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.
SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.
I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

We will hit 20k easy. SMU will bring more fans than 2014 because of the Morris excitement. We will bring more than we did last year because of the new head coach boost. Attendance was sub-par for the first home game last year because we all knew what to expect after seeing the SMU game with McNulty at the helm. This year we'll have a new starting quarterback, a new offensive and defensive system, and likely an excited recruiting class. We will top 20k easy. Look for more in the 25k range.

GrandGreen · December 10, 2015

I believe there is a very good chance that the SMU game will be a sell out. First game of year for both teams, so there is no P5 whipping to start the year for either team. A lot of enthusiasm for Littrell at NT and even SMU should bring a couple of thousand versus the couple of hundred last time. Not anywhere close to the number NT had at Ford, but not the embarrassing number they brought to Apogee before.

Eagle-96 · December 10, 2015

If the smu game is a daygame, attendance will be worse than a night game.

Btw, did anybody notice unt got a day game and smu got a night game?

RV accommodated TV for the horrible, sweltering, oppressively hot day game. He did it on purpose. We should NEVER EVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE A DAY GAME AT THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER. I don't care about TV. In fact, TV only drives down the attendance numbers anyway. Why come sit in 100 degree weather when you can watch it at home. Dumb Dumb Dumb decision. Next seasons opener needs to be no earlier than 6:00, preferably 7:00.

Ben Gooding · December 10, 2015

We will be lucky to hit 20k for SMU. Probably closer to 16 or 17k. If weather is bad (rain), another 10k crowd is possible.
SMU will bring 200 fans. Maybe. We are coming off a 1-11 season. Whatever you think about the coaching hire, I think we all agree it clearly isn't the type of hire that is going to turn heads and put butts in seats that normally wouldn't care about going to a UNT game. Like it or not, we need about 12k of those butts to have the 1st sellout EVERY of Apogee.
I'd guess in the neighborhood of 16k with good weather. Remember, this game is also being played on a holiday weekend...

Geez you're a depressing person. A season opener at home with a new HC installing a new O will draw more than 16k. Vs a rival no less. I know you want RV gone (as do I) but let's not allow the desire to see him gone turn you into a dumbass.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Ben Gooding

MDH · December 10, 2015

R^2 - speakin my language

StealthEagle84 · December 10, 2015

I remember being at the UTEP game is '13 in front of 26k plus thinking to myself, "This is what real college football games look like. We have finally made it at the FBS level." Oh, how quickly things can change. But yes, fans do show up when we put a good product of the field. We can't use the excuse of playing low level teams that no one recognizes anymore. We have SMU, Marshall, LaTech, and Southern Miss all slated to come to Apogee next season. No more excuses. Now we to add the final ingredient, winning.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/recap?gameId=333130249

UNT90 · December 10, 2015

first game of the season always gets better attendance. We have a hyped fan base with a new coach leading us into the season. I bet SMU brings a better crowd, but it won't be impressive... I think attendance might be in the low 20's. If it's a 6 pm kickoff, I'm going with Army of Dad's prediction.

We have hyped hardcore fans. We don't have a hyped fan base. 24 or 25k is a pipe dream.

Littrell strikes me as a very nose to the grindstone type, which I actually like. Don't look for him to set the community on fire DMac style. First, he has much more important things to do, and second, it just doesn't appear to be his nature from the early glimpses we have gotten of his personality.

And that's fine. Like I said, give me a doer over a talker any day of the week. But that doesn't make for a good attendance scenario for the firs game.

The only curious people to his performance are the hardcore fans. I worry greatly about student turnout.

IF he is the real deal, you will see attendance increase throughout the year as this team wins games and is competitive. If we are really bad again, attendance will be, also.

RV will have to do his job to get people to the SMU game. I think we all know how that will turn out.

Zeke · December 10, 2015

This is fantastic stats work. Great Job!!

So depressing to see so many 2+ and 3+ losing streaks compared to the winning streaks

UNT90 · December 10, 2015

Geez you're a depressing person. A season opener at home with a new HC installing a new O will draw more than 16k. Vs a rival no less. I know you want RV gone (as do I) but let's not allow the desire to see him gone turn you into a dumbass.

Geez, your an insulting juvenile.

Eagle-96 · December 10, 2015

We have hyped hardcore fans. We don't have a hyped fan base. 24 or 25k is a pipe dream.
Littrell strikes me as a very nose to the grindstone type, which I actually like. Don't look for him to set the community on fire DMac style. First, he has much more important things to do, and second, it just doesn't appear to be his nature from the early glimpses we have gotten of his personality.
And that's fine. Like I said, give me a doer over a talker any day of the week. But that doesn't make for a good attendance scenario for the firs game.
The only curious people to his performance are the hardcore fans. I worry greatly about student turnout.
IF he is the real deal, you will see attendance increase throughout the year as this team wins games and is competitive. If we are really bad again, attendance will be, also.
RV will have to do his job to get people to the SMU game. I think we all know how that will turn out.

A few factors that point to 24-25K being realistic.

1. It will be the home opener. We can count on 19-20K for home openers even during hard times.

2. This will be the season opener also. No previous weeks road beatdown to drive away casual fans. Everyone has the same record in this scenario. We're all 0-0.

3. A new coach brings hope. Add to this an exciting brand of offensive football. No more 3 yards and a cloud of pellets to bore the fans to tears.

4. Fans want to see a local opponent. We drew 22K in 2014 to an 11:00 am kickoff in near 100 degree temps.

NTAlum09 · December 10, 2015

All depends on how the Athletic Department markets the game. But the game needs to be 6pm or later to weed out any excuses not to come.

outoftown · December 10, 2015

Somehow this discussion did not go where I would have thought. The data primarily says that people will come once we are winning, and that 70% of RVs job to get that done is hiring the coach who will do that. No need ragging on the fans.

Oh and let me add, that it does not take all that much winning. See where the line crosses the 0 (equal winning and losing streaks). Yep that would be somewhere just under 21k average. A bit of consistent winning and we will have sellouts because the average will go up to 25k which will bump against the capacity on some games.

With regard to this whole SMU game thing. Attendance will be up for reasons such as "new season" the new coach will bring a few hundred and SMU being a rival where both teams have a shot at winning will bring out some people on UNTs side as well as SMUs. But then again for a lot of casual fans we will still be on a losing streak and believing enough to move their butts to Apogee will not happen before they see us winning. And the data I put up says that the latter usually trumps the former, so if I'd have to guess I'd say I expect about 17 to 21k depending on time and weather and marketing effort. If we'd have the same hype after winning the last 2 games of the season it would more be like 23-28k

Edited December 10, 2015 by outoftown

aztecskin · December 10, 2015

I wonder if Littrell will continue Mac's idea of addressing the Freshman. RV should have required that in the contract. A little pep-talk should be fun. If he absolutely is awful at that, a little message from him in person "I hope to see you all out there for our opener, we need you, you are part of this program! Thanks, go mean green!" followed by a little video, maybe some pre-recorded player stuff, an alumni or two.

GMG24 · December 10, 2015

We have hyped hardcore fans. We don't have a hyped fan base. 24 or 25k is a pipe dream.
Littrell strikes me as a very nose to the grindstone type, which I actually like. Don't look for him to set the community on fire DMac style. First, he has much more important things to do, and second, it just doesn't appear to be his nature from the early glimpses we have gotten of his personality.
And that's fine. Like I said, give me a doer over a talker any day of the week. But that doesn't make for a good attendance scenario for the firs game.
The only curious people to his performance are the hardcore fans. I worry greatly about student turnout.
IF he is the real deal, you will see attendance increase throughout the year as this team wins games and is competitive. If we are really bad again, attendance will be, also.
RV will have to do his job to get people to the SMU game. I think we all know how that will turn out.

I guess I will get to see if my 4-5 wins prediction with same schedule is going to be true. Man CUSA is really sticking it to us in a bad way. I hope Littrell does what I think he can. From every single person I have connections with they say he was the best out there with regards to doing what we want. Lets see with results.

UNT90 · December 10, 2015

A few factors that point to 24-25K being realistic.
1. It will be the home opener. We can count on 19-20K for home openers even during hard times.
2. This will be the season opener also. No previous weeks road beatdown to drive away casual fans. Everyone has the same record in this scenario. We're all 0-0.
3. A new coach brings hope. Add to this an exciting brand of offensive football. No more 3 yards and a cloud of pellets to bore the fans to tears.
4. Fans want to see a local opponent. We drew 22K in 2014 to an 11:00 am kickoff in near 100 degree temps.

Come on. We were coming off a bowl game for the 2014 home opener, so throw that out.

No one outside the 8k hardcore fans know a thing about the new coach's offensive system, and they won't before SMU.

This is a season opener following a 1-11 season, the last 3 of which averaged under 10k a game, with a max attendance of under 11k. When is the last time that occurred in UNT history?

I think a lot of people gave up after Portland St. And I think it's going to take winning to get them back.

This isn't a magically fixed problem, and if RV takes the approach that it is while marketing this game, look for attendance failure.

untjim1995 · December 10, 2015

Old SWC schools playing in Denton have always drawn a good crowd. The SMU opener won't be any different. It will get between 20k and 24k, depending on start time.