DRC Monday column: UNT isn't a quick fix situation for new coach

[Brett Vito]

DRC: Blowout losses to top C-USA teams show new coach is going to need time -- and maybe a lot of it -- to bolster foundering program

http://www.dentonrc.com/sports/sports-headlines/20151108-brett-vito-new-football-coach-will-face-tough-road-at-unt.ece

 

[untbowler]

good grief can Vito already stop with the built-in excuses for the next coach. The narrative is getting old, funny many other coaches can come in on Yr 1 and make a big turn around using former coaches players, but not at UNT. Stop with the excuses already and get a coach ready to coach and not make excuses.

[MeanGreenTexan]

good grief can Vito already stop with the built-in excuses for the next coach. The narrative is getting old, funny many other coaches can come in on Yr 1 and make a big turn around using former coaches players, but not at UNT. Stop with the excuses already and get a coach ready to coach and not make excuses.

I don't think his audience was the new coach.  
His audience was people who should temper immediate expectations for the new guy.   We need to see improvement, not another 2013 season right off the bat.

[SilverEagle]

good grief can Vito already stop with the built-in excuses for the next coach. The narrative is getting old, funny many other coaches can come in on Yr 1 and make a big turn around using former coaches players, but not at UNT. Stop with the excuses already and get a coach ready to coach and not make excuses.

For example. The coach that just beat the crap out of us was 4-8 in 2013, his first year at La Tech. His second year they were 9-5 and beat Illinois in the HOD bowl.

...and just down the road from La Tech.....

http://www.ulmwarhawks.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=19000&ATCLID=204858932

 

Edited November 9, 2015 by SilverEagle

[untbowler]

I don't think his audience was the new coach.  His audience was people who should temper immediate expectations for the new guy.   We need to see improvement, not another 2013 season right off the bat.

sorry refuse to temper expectation of reaching 6 wins every year, when coach is in fertile recruiting grounds, getting paid a huge salary compared to CUSA peers, new stadium, and hungry fans waiting for a winner who refuses to degrade UNT as being tough place to coach.

[MeanGreenTexan]

sorry refuse to temper expectation of reaching 6 wins every year, when coach is in fertile recruiting grounds, getting paid a huge salary compared to CUSA peers, new stadium, and hungry fans waiting for a winner who refuses to degrade UNT as being tough place to coach.

You EXPECT to win 6 games or more in 2016?

Not saying it's impossible, but if we only get to 4 or 5 wins next year while showing progress both on the field and on the recruiting trail, I wouldn't call it a failure.

[UNT90]

Nothing will ever change with the current AD in place 

[Travis]

If we had the right leadership, we wouldn't need a lot of time.  Others can do it... why not us?!

 

Kudos to the AD who is the architect of a program where the football HC needs a lot of time to turn this ship around. I am glad we have him.

[untjim1995]

I think that the realization of the situation is that the roster is pitifully low on talent and has shown it will quit when things get tough. Throw in the fact that a new coach's offensive strategy SHOULD be 180 degrees different from what has been run here in the Mac era and those very low-ranked recruiting classes now have to get plugged into an offense they aren't familiar with or aren't a fit for. Then, the biggest factor in all of this is that the new coach will get handpicked by the worst AD in America with a fanbase that has significantly dropped in numbers in the last couple of years out of pure frustration.

We may improve some next year, assuming a new coach brings in enthusiasm and the schedule is not as dreadful as this year's has been in its setup, but we could really be facing a reality of 2-3 wins next year being very possible. Will it be better than this year, which is probably a 1 win season? Yes, but its even possible we don't even get any better next year, record-wise, too. Look at Kansas--they fired Charlie Weis last year and finished 3-9. They brought in David Beaty and kept Clint Bowen for some consistency, yet they are 0-9 and will almost definitely go 0-12 this year. That's because they have no decent QB, no depth, and not much speed or size. That sounds familiar to me...

Its going to take years to get this turned around here. You may think that it can happen at other places, so why not here, but the reality is that what SMU looks like this year after getting rid of June Jones will probably resemble what the next coach here will deal with--except SMU has an AD that is not the worst in the country. We will always have the fact that teams like UTSA and UTEP aren't running laps around us, nor are SMU or Army, so they are four teams that we have some chance to beat, plus the FCS spare we host. Assuming that we play the same Eastern CUSA teams again next season, maybe MUTS is beatable here. So that is 6 games against teams that look to be possible to beat in 2016. If we win half of those (3 are at home, 3 on the road), that gets you to 3-9. Right now, with all that we have to deal with, that would show some solid improvement. For that to occur, it will be completely on the new coach to find a QB for his offense--and I don't believe that guy is currently on this roster right now. All QBs but Damarcus Smith will probably leave here, and I suspect Damarcus will be the backup QB to a new QB here, since he will be a senior, IIRC. That new QB could be transfer from another FBS school, it could be yet another JUCO QB again, or it could absolutely be a freshman that is straight out of high school. That's just the reality of how bad our collection of current QBs are right now.

 

[Ben Gooding]

sorry refuse to temper expectation of reaching 6 wins every year, when coach is in fertile recruiting grounds, getting paid a huge salary compared to CUSA peers, new stadium, and hungry fans waiting for a winner who refuses to degrade UNT as being tough place to coach.

Everything this. 

We can win and we can do it in short time. I feel like watching this UNT team they seem just out of place on defense, minimal fundamentals being used and an offensive game plan that never suits our strengths. A lot of our current issues is coaching. Once we get a guy in here that knows what he is doing and a DC that can put players in position we will see significant improvement and we can see it quickly. The current staff, with and without Mccarney, is stagnant and doesn't have these guys inspired. I expect all of that to change. 

[NM Green]

This just seems like a horribly misplaced article.  Maybe write this 5 weeks and an 0-5 record in 2016 but now?  Seriously, I am watching this horror show from Asia and it's not far enough at times.  I am just going to enjoy hearing Rocky Top and remember I am in SEC country this weekend on a beautiful fall football weekend in the good Ole USA.  

Seriously I swear we beat at least two teams next year - as next year will not quit on their coach and program.

See you from Rocky Top.

GMG

[DeepGreen]

For example. The coach that just beat the crap out of us was 4-8 in 2013, his first year at La Tech. His second year they were 9-5 and beat Illinois in the HOD bowl.

...and just down the road from La Tech.....

http://www.ulmwarhawks.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=19000&ATCLID=204858932

 

Not sure about the reference to Todd Berry.  ULM is 1-8.  Did I miss something Silver???

[HarringtonFishSmeller]

I'm going to make this prediction again, because it makes sense:  we have good backs, we'll have 3/5ths of the line returning, we play in a glorified version of the Sun Belt.

Therefore, if we hire a coach who can get one quarterback in here, we could easily be 6-6 next year and be back in a bowl game.

Hear me now, believe me later:  Mac and Chico royally screwed the pooch in quarterback recruiting.  All it takes is one guy to get it going.  My bet is an offensive guru-type hire can do it. 

[SilverEagle]

Not sure about the reference to Todd Berry.  ULM is 1-8.  Did I miss something Silver???

Not the ideal example, but within a couple of years of taking over, he had ULM beating Arkansas (and scaring Auburn and Baylor) and going to a bowl game. 

[untbowler]

Not the ideal example, but within a couple of years of taking over, he had ULM beating Arkansas (and scaring Auburn and Baylor) and going to a bowl game. 

on one of the smallest budgets in the country, so whatever he does is pretty stout considering his actual resources compared to every other school

[UNTFan23]

on one of the smallest budgets in the country, so whatever he does is pretty stout considering his actual resources compared to every other school

Not the ideal example, but within a couple of years of taking over, he had ULM beating Arkansas (and scaring Auburn and Baylor) and going to a bowl game. 

I've never understood why some of our fan base gets so hung up on the War Hawks.  ULM has only done slightly better than us.  So much for having such high expectations for our program, don't you think? In 8 years, they have had 1 season of above .500 ball, two seasons finishing right at .500, with the rest (5) at below .500 giving them an overall losing record (.404).  Over the same period we are .318.  I say we should aim just a little higher than ULM.

• 2008 - 4-8
• 2009 - 6-6
• 2010 - 5-7
• 2011 - 4-8
• 2012 - 8-5
• 2013 - 6-6
• 2014 - 4-8
• 2015 - 1-8

[greenjoe]

I have always been reluctant to play UL Monroe.  I've seen their facilities and on paper they can't beat anybody.  But they always do.  I hate to say it, give me a bit of what Louisiana Monroe is having.

[UNT90]

DRC: Blowout losses to top C-USA teams show new coach is going to need time -- and maybe a lot of it -- to bolster foundering program

http://www.dentonrc.com/sports/sports-headlines/20151108-brett-vito-new-football-coach-will-face-tough-road-at-unt.ece

 

Hey Brett, why didn't you just call us the slowest, smallest team in FBS. 

SMH.

If we get the right coach who can bring a good FBS grad transfer QB, Vito will be shocked at how quickly things will turn around.

The defense has pretty much quit, knowing that offense can't score. The team's mental stated is very defeated right now. It won't be under the right new coach. 

That said, I have zero faith we get this hire right. RV is still here and appears to be involved. That is a curse upon this hire.

 

I've never understood why some of our fan base gets so hung up on the War Hawks.  ULM has only done slightly better than us.  So much for having such high expectations for our program, don't you think? In 8 years, they have had 1 season of above .500 ball, two seasons finishing right at .500, with the rest (5) at below .500 giving them an overall losing record (.404).  Over the same period we are .318.  I say we should aim just a little higher than ULM.

• 2008 - 4-8
• 2009 - 6-6
• 2010 - 5-7
• 2011 - 4-8
• 2012 - 8-5
• 2013 - 6-6
• 2014 - 4-8
• 2015 - 1-8

Because they manage to be better than us with about 1/8th the resources? 

[UNTFan23]

Not the ideal example, but within a couple of years of taking over, he had ULM beating Arkansas (and scaring Auburn and Baylor) and going to a bowl game. 

Let's provide a little context to the three games you are championing: In 2012, the three schools finished with the following records: Arkansas 4-8; Baylor 8-5; Auburn 3-9.

Beating Baylor in 2003 was a ton of fun but they were awful that year.

[Aldo]

I think we will be pleasantly surprised next year by our pass defense as they get a little more experienced.

The new regime will have to focus on recruiting QB, o-line, and front 7, imo.

[MeanGreenTexan]

Hey Brett, why didn't you just call us the slowest, smallest team in FBS. 

SMH.

If we get the right coach who can bring a good FBS grad transfer QB, Vito will be shocked at how quickly things will turn around.

The defense has pretty much quit, knowing that offense can't score. The team's mental stated is very defeated right now. It won't be under the right new coach. 

That said, I have zero faith we get this hire right. RV is still here and appears to be involved. That is a curse upon this hire.

Because they manage to be better than us with about 1/8th the resources? 

...Said every single SMU fan last year.   I hope you're right, but we need to temper expectations.  We may be in for quite a rebuild.

[VideoEagle]

There are always examples of coaches who win in their first year. But the statistics for teams that had losing records that far more take 3 years to get back to 6-6. That's across all of FBS football from over a period of around 10 years. 

[rcade]

There are always examples of coaches who win in their first year. But the statistics for teams that had losing records that far more take 3 years to get back to 6-6. That's across all of FBS football from over a period of around 10 years. 

UNT has been below average for so long that we are due an above-average performance under the next coach, just to balance things out.

We're paying more than most schools in CUSA and have a new stadium and other advantages that put us near the top in the conference.

It should be possible to put things together faster than 3 years. It's not like CUSA is full of world-beaters, particularly in the west.

[VideoEagle]

UNT has been below average for so long that we are due an above-average performance under the next coach, just to balance things out.

We're paying more than most schools in CUSA and have a new stadium and other advantages that put us near the top in the conference.

It should be possible to put things together faster than 3 years. It's not like CUSA is full of world-beaters, particularly in the west.

Yes, we've been down for a long, long time. But that doesn't makes any more likely or not that THIS time a coach is success faster than three years. I wish I'd save a copy of the study I read back around the time we hired McCarney. It looked at all of the openings for football head coach across all of FBS schools for about ten years and the results over a period of years after the hire. The summary was if a school fired a coach with a losing record and hired a replacement expecting a quick turn around they would be disappointed as that rarely happened. It did happen some, but only rarely. Mostly, it took three years or more for the team to get to a .500 record. That's all of FBS over 10 years so it's not a small sample and included all FBS conferences. 

We might get lucky, but we shouldn't count on it. 

[greenminer]

Our AD has run out of excuses.