How Much Time Do We Give The New Coach To Get Us Bowl Eligible

untjim1995 · November 4, 2015

We have had four winning seasons in 21 years as a FBS team...including 1 in the last 11, covering three head coaches and one interim coach in the last 10.5 years. We are 36-92 in that stretch. That's winning less than 3 games for every 10 you play.

Expecting a new coach to change that in one year, with a roster that is ranked extremely low by the recruiting agencies and hasn't exactly been developed into anything special, seems a tad homerish to me. But then again, there are a lot of people here who think RV is just fine as an AD, Chico should be the head coach because he beat UTSA, and that we have a squad full of players that are just diamonds in the rough...

SMU will only have a 1 year head start on us. They're just as bad as those other teams you listed as beatable... and we'll have them at Apogee. Definitely winnable.

True, but I'm going on the premise that SMUs recruiting class will be much better than ours this year, which piggy backs on the previous classes that they had better talent than we had. A coach who hasn't quit on his team and has a scheme that will be able to attract quality talent for a G5 program should make SMU better next year--at least better than we are going to be to start next year. That's why I think we aren't going to be at a place by our opener next September to beat them.

Now, by 2017 or 2018, that's a whole different deal. If we don't beat them by then, I'll be afraid we failed again with our next hire, unless SMU becomes a big AAC team.

Ben Gooding · November 4, 2015

We have had four winning seasons in 21 years as a FBS team...including 1 in the last 11, covering three head coaches and one interim coach in the last 10.5 years. We are 36-92 in that stretch. That's winning less than 3 games for every 10 you play.
Expecting a new coach to change that in one year, with a roster that is ranked extremely low by the recruiting agencies and hasn't exactly been developed into anything special, seems a tad homerish to me. But then again, there are a lot of people here who think RV is just fine as an AD, Chico should be the head coach because he beat UTSA, and that we have a squad full of players that are just diamonds in the rough...
True, but I'm going on the premise that SMUs recruiting class will be much better than ours this year, which piggy backs on the previous classes that they had better talent than we had. A coach who hasn't quit on his team and has a scheme that will be able to attract quality talent for a G5 program should make SMU better next year--at least better than we are going to be to start next year. That's why I think we aren't going to be at a place by our opener next September to beat them.
Now, by 2017 or 2018, that's a whole different deal. If we don't beat them by then, I'll be afraid we failed again with our next hire, unless SMU becomes a big AAC team.

Hard to argue with that. But we have the horses to beat them next year. We had the horses to beat them THIS year, but Dan Mccarney said no thank you because he has a friend named Jim and Jim has a son named Andrew. And that was obviously more important to Dan than winning.

MeanGreenTexan · November 4, 2015

We have had four winning seasons in 21 years as a FBS team...including 1 in the last 11, covering three head coaches and one interim coach in the last 10.5 years. We are 36-92 in that stretch. That's winning less than 3 games for every 10 you play.
Expecting a new coach to change that in one year, with a roster that is ranked extremely low by the recruiting agencies and hasn't exactly been developed into anything special, seems a tad homerish to me. But then again, there are a lot of people here who think RV is just fine as an AD, Chico should be the head coach because he beat UTSA, and that we have a squad full of players that are just diamonds in the rough...
True, but I'm going on the premise that SMUs recruiting class will be much better than ours this year, which piggy backs on the previous classes that they had better talent than we had. A coach who hasn't quit on his team and has a scheme that will be able to attract quality talent for a G5 program should make SMU better next year--at least better than we are going to be to start next year. That's why I think we aren't going to be at a place by our opener next September to beat them.
Now, by 2017 or 2018, that's a whole different deal. If we don't beat them by then, I'll be afraid we failed again with our next hire, unless SMU becomes a big AAC team.

Davis will still be there, so we're going to need to find speedier linebackers. Good thing is though, we basically have Matt Davis starting for us now. Nice runner, accuracy problems. Otherwise, they're not really far enough ahead of us to call that game a loss. There's a strong possibility we wind up with a better record than them. Their last possibility to win will be VS Tulane. I would call UNT's chances against UTEP better than SMU VS Tulane.

untjim1995 · November 4, 2015

Hard to argue with that. But we have the horses to beat them next year. We had the horses to beat them THIS year, but Dan Mccarney said no thank you because he has a friend named Jim and Jim has a son named Andrew. And that was obviously more important to Dan than winning.

Truth...

I would call UNT's chances against UTEP better than SMU VS Tulane.

Truth

GOMG2013 · November 4, 2015

Davis will still be there, so we're going to need to find speedier linebackers. Good thing is though, we basically have Matt Davis starting for us now. Nice runner, accuracy problems. Otherwise, they're not really far enough ahead of us to call that game a loss. There's a strong possibility we wind up with a better record than them. Their last possibility to win will be VS Tulane. I would call UNT's chances against UTEP better than SMU VS Tulane.

hopefully a new coaching staff can get more out of the fast LBs we have with Ellis and minor. Ellis went from being able to hold his own as a true freshman, to all of a sudden not even seeing the field?

UNT90 · November 5, 2015

3 years with improvement every year.

A lot of people on here don't want to admit it to themselves, but we are the worst team in college football. I'm sure there will be posts about unrealized talent potential.

But you are what you are.

Got5onIt · November 5, 2015

3 years. There is talent on both sides of the ball right now. Can he develop that talent? 3 years would be long enough to find out.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Got5onIt

wardly · November 5, 2015

Four years to turn this program around. With the players we have 3 wins would be reasonable for next year.

MeanGreenTexan · November 5, 2015

Four years to turn this program around. With the players we have 3 wins would be reasonable for next year.

I actually kind of think 2 years would be reasonable to expect. As in, we could be bowl-eligible in 2017. If next year's schedule is kind, and we can get the right guy in, we could actually look to be bowl-eligible NEXT year. If LATech cannot land another transfer QB, and they trot Higgins out there next year, they'll be in serious trouble, because Dixon will be gone too... which opens up a remote possibility of a West Division championship... how crazy would that be? Worst loss in FBS history to C-USA West Division champs in 1 season.

Right now, we have one of the best RBs in C-USA. He's going to get better. If you find a guy who can get the right scheme together, you can ride Wilson for another 2 years while accruing guys to run your preferred system.

CMJ · November 5, 2015

3 years with improvement every year.
A lot of people on here don't want to admit it to themselves, but we are the worst team in college football. I'm sure there will be posts about unrealized talent potential.
But you are what you are.

I'm not sure we are the absolute worst (we did just beat another school with the same record as us), but we definitely have the worst single loss of any team...maybe ever.

UNT90 · November 5, 2015

I'm not sure we are the absolute worst (we did just beat another school with the same record as us), but we definitely have the worst single loss of any team...maybe ever.

We were starting our best option at QB. They were starting their 4th best option due to injury.

When healthy, they beat us by at least 2 TDs.

But I will absolutely take it.

If we stay within 21 or La. Tech, I'll back off the worst team claim.

untjim1995 · November 5, 2015

We were starting our best option at QB. They were starting their 4th best option due to injury.
When healthy, they beat us by at least 2 TDs.
But I will absolutely take it.
If we stay within 21 or La. Tech, I'll back off the worst team claim.

Yeah, if UTSA had Bogenshutz healthy, we get rolled. Our defense wouldn't be able to handle a decent QB.

But I'm glad we finally got that UTSA Gorilla off our backs. If we can beat UTEP at the end of the season, to finish with two wins over in-state programs, that would at least help us to win a few recruiting battles against both squads in the winter.

What's really funny is that SMU beat us for their only win, we beat UTSA for our only win, and UTSA beat UTEP for their only win. UTEP has 3 wins because they beat NMSU (in OT), FAU, and Incarnate Word. And NMSU only has one win (over Idaho in OT), too, as does ULM (over FCS Nicholls State). Texas State has 2 wins over South Alabama and Prairie View A&M.

Basically, the bottom 4 Texas teams are really, really, really bad. Regional programs like Rice, La Tech, Tulsa, Tulane, Arkansas State, and ULL will all have a leg up on us, SMU, UTSA, and UTEP in recruiting this fall and winter. I intentionally leave out UH because they are currently light years ahead of the rest of the teams listed.

MeanGreenTexan · November 5, 2015

Yeah, if UTSA had Bogenshutz healthy, we get rolled. Our defense wouldn't be able to handle a decent QB.
But I'm glad we finally got that UTSA Gorilla off our backs. If we can beat UTEP at the end of the season, to finish with two wins over in-state programs, that would at least help us to win a few recruiting battles against both squads in the winter.
What's really funny is that SMU beat us for their only win, we beat UTSA for our only win, and UTSA beat UTEP for their only win. UTEP has 3 wins because they beat NMSU (in OT), FAU, and Incarnate Word. And NMSU only has one win (over Idaho in OT), too, as does ULM (over FCS Nicholls State). Texas State has 2 wins over South Alabama and Prairie View A&M.
Basically, the bottom 4 Texas teams are really, really, really bad. Regional programs like Rice, La Tech, Tulsa, Tulane, Arkansas State, and ULL will all have a leg up on us, SMU, UTSA, and UTEP in recruiting this fall and winter. I intentionally leave out UH because they are currently light years ahead of the rest of the teams listed.

No way. Bogenshutz is not THAT good. He's actually not very good at all, right now. I bet he gets better though.

untjim1995 · November 5, 2015

No way. Bogenshutz is not THAT good. He's actually not very good at all, right now. I bet he gets better though.

He's better than their 4th and 5th string QBs...who damn near pulled off a win on the road against us.

GrandGreen · November 5, 2015

Actually, the McCarney bowl win team was picked very low in the conference. What happened, was that was a very veteran team with a few exceptional players and leaders. Next year's team is going to lose about 5 starters and should be substantially better at about every position. They are going to have to get a lot better at linebacker and wide receiver, but I can definitely see a chance for 6 wins or more. The West division with the exception of La Tech does not look unbeatable. NT's Smith, Wilson, Kirby, Rice, Buyers and McClain should be all conference level players and good leaders . Add what should be the best kicking game in the conference, and with the right coaching staff; I don't think it is going to take three years for NT to get to a breakeven team.

MeanGreenTexan · November 5, 2015

He's better than their 4th and 5th string QBs...who damn near pulled off a win on the road against us.

I guess. In a McNulty is better than Greer kind of way. No way UNT was going to get "rolled" in that game. That is a terrible TEAM.

Aldo · November 5, 2015

3 years with improvement every year.
A lot of people on here don't want to admit it to themselves, but we are the worst team in college football. I'm sure there will be posts about unrealized talent potential.
But you are what you are.

But, unrealized potential...

Army of Dad · November 5, 2015

Actually, the McCarney bowl win team was picked very low in the conference. What happened, was that was a very veteran team with a few exceptional players and leaders. Next year's team is going to lose about 5 starters and should be substantially better at about every position. They are going to have to get a lot better at linebacker and wide receiver, but I can definitely see a chance for 6 wins or more. The West division with the exception of La Tech does not look unbeatable. NT's Smith, Wilson, Kirby, Rice, Buyers and McClain should be all conference level players and good leaders . Add what should be the best kicking game in the conference, and with the right coaching staff; I don't think it is going to take three years for NT to get to a breakeven team.

This.

Mac's recruiting was awful, BUT it was better in the last two classes. Those guys will be juniors and sophomores (with some red shirts) next year. Combined with a (probably) weaker schedule this team could be bowl eligible next year.

All of that depends on getting a good coach, which is the scariest part of all.

No way UNT was going to get "rolled" in that game.

Why not, an FCS rolled UNT ...

untjim1995 · November 5, 2015

I guess. In a McNulty is better than Greer kind of way. No way UNT was going to get "rolled" in that game. That is a terrible TEAM.

You and I definitely agree on UTSA being terrible...they are really bad. At the beginning of the year, I predicted we would go 4-8, with wins over SMU, Portland State, UTSA, and UTEP. I felt that we would be better than UTSA with what they had coming back and playing them in Denton. My caveat, though, was if we don't beat SMU, there isn't another FBS team we should beat, that Portland State would be our only win. Well, obviously, Portland State rolled us, but it was clear that UTSA would get seal-clubbed by Portland State, too. And UTEP probably fits in that equation, as well.

Edited November 5, 2015 by untjim1995

MeanGreenTexan · November 5, 2015

This.
Mac's recruiting was awful, BUT it was better in the last two classes. Those guys will be juniors and sophomores (with some red shirts) next year. Combined with a (probably) weaker schedule this team could be bowl eligible next year.
All of that depends on getting a good coach, which is the scariest part of all.
Why not, an FCS rolled UNT ...

You were there, right?
The team that played that game VS the one that was blown out by WKU 5 days later were two completely different teams. They quit VS Portland State... probably because they knew they were playing for a lame duck coach. That was not going to happen again once McCarney was fired, and it hasnt. Chico has rallied the troops and has them playing at a level that we should EXPECT them to be playing. Now, similarly to everyone's criticisms of RV, it's time to move FORWARD, UPWARD, ONWARD.... however you want to say it. It's time to get better.

And, I'm simply trying to point out along the way that Mr. Bogenshutz is not that good, right now. He's only a Sophomore. We'll see a very good QB this weekend. We saw a fantastic QB VS WKU. Bogenshutz was not going to be the difference in that game last weekend.

You and I definitely agree on UTSA being terrible...they are really bad. At the beginning of the year, I predicted we would go 4-8, with wins over SMU, Portland State, UTSA, and UTEP. I felt that we would be better than UTSA with what they had coming back and playing them in Denton. My caveat, though, was if we don't beat SMU, there isn't another FBS team we should beat, that Portland State would be our only win. Well, obviously, Portland State rolled us, but it was clear that UTSA would get seal-clubbed by Portland State, too. And UTEP probably fits in that equation, as well.

I disagree with this.
UTSA has not quit on Coker. UTEP has not quit on Kugler either, or they wouldn't have won against FAU 2 weeks ago. Maybe Portland state beats both of those teams, but nowhere near 66-7. You have to know that...

GrayEagle · November 5, 2015

I don't know where you people got it that Sturm is/was their 4th string quarterback. He was their 2nd string quarterback behind Bogenshutz and was their best running quarterback and actually has the best Passing Rating as well.

Bogenshutz was a more accurate passer with a 59% completion percentage but had thrown four interceptions to go with his four touchdown passes. Before playing us Sturm (55% completion rate) had thrown five touchdown passes with only two interceptions giving him the higher rating. In addition, Bogenshutz barely had enough rushing yards to cover his sack losses whereas Sturm has been a true dual threat.

Only one other quarterback has played this year and he has taken only a few snaps.

So, in my opinion, based on the above statistics, we faced UTSA's best quarterback last Saturday.

Edited November 5, 2015 by GrayEagle
word correction

UNT90 · November 5, 2015

No way. Bogenshutz is not THAT good. He's actually not very good at all, right now. I bet he gets better though.

He threw for 300 plus against Arizonia.

When healthy, he is good.

MeanGreenTexan · November 5, 2015

He threw for 300 plus against Arizonia.
When healthy, he is good.

And the very next week and thereafter has looked completely mortal... and concussed. Pretty clear that game was the anomaly.
Why the heck am I arguing about how good UTSA's QB is? Stupid.

rcade · November 5, 2015

They quit VS Portland State... probably because they knew they were playing for a lame duck coach. That was not going to happen again once McCarney was fired, and it hasnt.

I don't understand how players could quit on a coach at homecoming. Even if you don't like your coach, it's your reputation on the line as much as his. No player wants to make SportsCenter for the worst-ever FBS loss to an FCS team.

They're playing for an interim duck in Canales, but that hasn't stopped them from putting in a strong effort.