Better to be lucky than good

[Harry]

As our fans ponder the endless lists of prospective coaches who could potentially lead this program, a couple of things crossed my mind.

One is that without a doubt, it helps to have lady luck on your side.  Right now there are 7 openings with UNT at the bottom of the food chain that consists of the likes of USC, South Carolina, Miami etc...  So, even if you pinpoint the perfect candidate(s) early on, the truth of the matter is, if they are desirable and other programs want them you may not get the guy at the top of your list.  We may have 10-15 openings before all is said and done.

But a lot of it could depend on luck.  For instance, say your guy is third on the list at Miami.  If Miami decides that Butch Davis needs to reincarnate them to their glory days out of the blue, it would likely keep your guy in the mix, since Davis is not a traditional candidate in the sense that a Willie Fritz might be.  If Miami takes Davis, that could lead UCF to consider Mario Cristobal who might not be there if USF fires Willie Taggart late in the season.   Willie Fritz may be interested in North Texas today.  But if Illinois raises its skirt late in the season he would most surely listen.  So why would Willie Fritz be willing to commit to UNT early?  Truth is he wouldn't and he's be crazy to.

Unless the wheels fall of in H-Town, Tom Hermann could be considered for both of the USC openings.  Does that take Applewhite out of the mix?  Most likely... But what if Houston decided Applewhite is not ready yet?  And he gets angry and stomps off and calls North Texas? 

My point is, the landscape is ever changing and frankly while you can make confidential connections now, you really will be hard pressed to get the pick of the litter to commit early.  Any viable candidate will - at the advisement of their agent -  hold out until the final decisions are made up the food chain.  And why wouldn't they?  A place like Houston has defined itself as a production house for great p5 coaches.  A place like the USC's have every possible advantage known to mankind and offer millions of dollars.

Here's what we know.  The whole consultant and committee idea was scrapped.  It didn't work out last time and it saves us money we can spend on the next staff.  North Texas will have to bump up their salaries but looking at how things stand now we are already are in the top 2-3 of C-USA.  My sincere hope is they will move us into the top spot but that remains to be seen and will depend on the candidate and the staff he brings.  It needs to be very clear to the BOR and Smatresk etc, that $200-$500K can be the difference between getting a star and just the best guy.  Money talks -- if there are concerns about the situation here believe me, some extra green helps alleviate those concerns.

Personally, I have a MUCH better feel about this hire than back when we hired Mac.  Why?  Our compensation is looking to be competitive and we learned a lot from the Mac experience.  I am convinced that recruiting will be paramount in this hire.  I do not think it was in the last one, I think it was somewhat taken for granted that Mac would "handle" it.

I am also distancing a little from the really young coordinator candidates.  After scouring the lists, it is apparent to me that there are plenty of 40-50 year olds with impressive resumes and the desire to move up the food chain.  Make no mistake, you need a guy who wants to reach the upper levels of college football as a HEAD COACH.  When you research guys and look at their track records it doesn't always mean they have to be coordinators at a p5 powerhouse although that doesn't hurt.  A guy who has been successful at a lower level could also be quite attractive since they are actually running the show and are not just handling one component.  With all this said, I still like Major Applewhite and there are some other young coordinators who I believe would make great hires.

A lot of the focus has been on offensive minded candidates. So the logical next step is to focus on offensive coordinators etc.   I also think that if you are willing to fund the UNT offensive coordinator position at a higher level, there is no reason why you couldn't bring in a defensive minded head coach and be quite successful.  I am just saying we don't have to limit ourselves in terms of quality candidates if we are committed financially to bringing in a top notch coordinator to open up the offense.

I also don't have a problem with taking a long hard look at the Sun Belt.  I know this may bother some, however, if a coach can win and recruit consistently at that level we can't afford to ignore that.  Some will say, why would a Sun Belt coach consider North Texas?  It's simple, they would make more money, have more money for their assistants, have better location and facilities and more upside here.  It may not offer as big a splash, but it is probably a safer move than bringing in a young guy who has never been a head coach before.  Just something to consider.

I also am of the belief that Texas ties are important.   They don't have to only have been in Texas, but I need them to have had some experience here and some track record of success here.  The days of position only coaches that don't recruit are over.  I sincerely hope that Tommy Perry and Kevin Patrick will be given full consideration on the new staff because they have the recruiting ability we covet.

For now, keep your fingers crossed because luck may play a bigger role in this hire than you might think.

Edited October 27, 2015 by Harry

[Silent Eagle]

Agree- it doesn't have to be the youthful hungry head coach. Up until his complacency, Mack Brown killed all competition as an older coach who employed young, talented specialty coaches and allowed them to run the systems they wanted to run and use the players that fit their scheme. What killed him was he was too detached, which is a risk assumed by all CEO style coaches. However, if the new coach is one with experience and an actual winning background that has a history of letting his staff do their jobs and has the charisma and energy to make talent believe in his desired end state for the program. 

I am not saying that I'm ok with a retread that could use glories of yesteryear to try to lure high school players into his lair. Mangino is not the answer. Houston Nutt is not the answer. But, simply looking at Texas Tech with coach bro at the helm and their moderate level of success is not reason enough to for me to buy off on that being the ultimate solution to the myriad of problems in the dystopian existence in which our athletic department exists. 

I just simply demand a thorough search and enough buying power to ensure a return on our investment. 

[drex]

I think that luck plays a big part in 'the fit', once the new coach gets to Denton.  Some will love Denton and the challenges here, while some (who thought UNT was their best option) might find that they just cannot hack it here.  Hope the gods are on our side this time.

[SilverEagle]

Well Harry, if RV really is the main person making the decision about this hire (please let our president be a major part of it) then I'm certainly counting (and praying) on luck to finally come around and smile on North Texas. Because being "good" will not come into play.

[oldguystudent]

Our collective spite and personal hatred seems so strong the we unconsciously desire perpetual failure because it substantiates our confirmation bias. 

Face, meet spiteful nose.

[SilverEagle]

Our collective spite and personal hatred seems so strong the we unconsciously desire perpetual failure because it substantiates our confirmation bias. 

Face, meet spiteful nose.

That was certainly my observation of our administrators who eventually hired Hayden Fry's replacement. They disliked Coach Fry so much that any sort of suggestion about the next hire that might have had Hayden Fry's name associated with it was ignored. And while they were at it, they ran Jitter Nolan, (the President who was responsible for hiring Hayden Fry) out of town as quickly as they could.

Spite and resentment. It's an old tradition here at North Texas. I wonder how that could be translated into an organized yell like "Riff Ram"

I'm just hoping that before I, and GrayEagle, DallasGreen, Wardly, UNTLifer, Plummer, DeepGreen, FFR...(and many others who have been ever hopeful about North Texas) move on to the next plane of existence, we get to see North Texas finally reach at least most of it's potential in athletics.

 

Edited October 27, 2015 by SilverEagle

[casual fan]

Well Harry, if RV really is the main person making the decision about this hire (please let our president be a major part of it) then I'm certainly counting (and praying) on luck to finally come around and smile on North Texas. Because being "good" will not come into play.

Luck is what happens when preparation and opportunity meet.

But, what is it called  when Preparation H and opportunity meet?

[forevereagle]

Luck is what happens when preparation and opportunity meet.

But, what is it called  when Preparation H and opportunity meet?

Relief?

[SilverEagle]

Luck is what happens when preparation and opportunity meet.

But, what is it called  when Preparation H and opportunity meet?

Very good, and Mrs Silver approves as well.

[HoustonEagle]

Just get Willie Fritz here and lets put this thing to bed.