Sun Belt Preview

mgsteve · November 11, 2003

College Basketball Preview - Sun Belt Conference

The Sports Network

By Pat Taggart, College Basketball Staff Writer

OUTLOOK: Heading into last season, Western Kentucky and UL-Lafayette were considered the best two teams in the Sun Belt. The two powerhouses certainly lived up to expectations, as the Hilltoppers won the conference tournament title to advance to the NCAA Tournament, while the Ragin' Cajuns earned a NIT berth. More of the same is expected this season, as WKU and ULL will once again be the teams to beat in the East and West, respectively. Arkansas-Little Rock appears to be a team capable of competing with Western Kentucky in the East, as the Trojans have lured a couple of solid juco players to complement Nick Zachery who withdrew his name from the NBA Draft to play one last collegiate season. Middle Tennessee State head coach Kermit Davis lost several seniors from last season's squad, but star guard Tommy Gunn will keep the Blue Raiders competitive every time out. Arkansas State has a chance to surprise some people, but Florida International may not be as fortunate, as the Golden Panthers will likely suffer many more losses than they collect wins this year. Moving over to the West, New Mexico State will lean heavily on James Moore in its effort to overcome UL-Lafayette. The Aggies went 9-6 in league action last season, and reaching double figures in the victory column is certainly a realistic goal. South Alabama surprised many people in head coach John Pelphrey's first season, and the combo of Chris Young and Malerick Bedden ensures another exciting campaign for the Jaguars. Denver had reason to celebrate after beating UL-Lafayette in the first round of the Sun Belt Tournament, and the Pioneers shouldn't be short on confidence considering that many key players are back. New Orleans struggled toward the end of last year and not much is expected of the Privateers in 2003-04. Finally, it's scary to imagine how bad North Texas can be without former star Chris Davis, especially considering that the team won only two league games a year ago.

CONFERENCE CHAMPION: UL-Lafayette

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

EAST:

1. Western Kentucky; 2. Arkansas-Little Rock; 3. Middle Tennessee State; 4. Arkansas State; 5. Florida International

WEST:

1. UL-Lafayette; 2. New Mexico State; 3. South Alabama; 4. Denver; 5. New Orleans; 6. North Texas

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

EAST:

WESTERN KENTUCKY - The Hilltoppers seem to win the East every year, but this season's road to a title will have a few bumps to say the least. Almost every key player has to be replaced because of graduation or otherwise, including all-conference guard Patrick Sparks who decided to transfer. Head coach Dennis Fenton left as well, as his success at Western Kentucky earned him the job at Georgia. Darrin Horn is the new leader of the program, and he will need guard Mike Wells to emerge into a bigger scoring threat. Wells averaged 10.8 ppg a year ago on 51 percent shooting from the floor, including 40.7 percent from three-point range, and he was also named Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year in 2002-03. Forward Todor Pandov is extremely athletic at 6-9, and he will provide a major boost if he can stay healthy. There will be some talented new faces in the lineup, and Nigel Dixon is the most intriguing of the group. A Florida State transfer, Dixon will help the team tremendously if he can keep his weight in check and bang inside.

ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK - The fact that Nick Zachery put off the NBA for another year is good news for him and great news for the Trojans. The star guard still has some room for improvement, and his team has what it takes to unseat the Hilltoppers. Zachery averaged 14.1 ppg a year ago on 40.1 percent shooting from the floor, and he also pulled down 4.1 rpg. Perhaps the most impressive stat of all is that he blocked 2.4 shots per game, a staggering number for a guard. While none of the other Trojans has star power, there are some skilled contributors. Brandon Freeman and Zack Graber will play alongside Zachery in the backcourt, and both juco transfers possess tremendous talent. Forward Jamal Holden will also be a big piece of the puzzle, as he seems to get better with every game.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE - As mentioned above, Tommy Gunn will be counted on to provide plenty of offense for the Blue Raiders. Last season, Gunn averaged 15.9 ppg on 49.8 percent shooting from the floor, including 42.8 percent from three-point range. With a little help from his teammates, Gunn is capable of making a serious run at Sun Belt Player of the Year honors. Fellow guard Keith Connor has not distinguished himself in his first three years with the program, but he will now be asked to make a major contribution. Darrio Scott, a transfer from George Washington, will be asked to contribute right away, and the same can be said for Michael Cuffee, a juco transfer. Middle Tennessee State will certainly be solid, but the pieces aren't in place for a championship run just yet.

ARKANSAS STATE - The Indians relied heavily on the three-point shot last season, and the fact that the team shot just a shade under 40 percent from behind the arc is impressive to say the least. More of the same is expected this year, as several key contributors are back. Tevoris Thompson is the best of the returnees, as he netted 15.3 ppg in 2002-03 on 38 percent shooting from three-point range. Thompson should get plenty of help in the scoring department thanks to the backcourt duo of J.J. Montgomery and DeWarwick Spencer. Montgomery is a juco All-American transfer, and Spencer has managed to get himself eligible. Kim Adams pulled down 9.0 rpg a year ago, and continued tough play on the interior by the big man will help the Indians tremendously.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - Considering that the Golden Panthers won just one of their 14 league tilts a year ago, they can't do much worse this season. They had trouble scoring points, and there doesn't seem to be many answers to the squad's offensive woes. Four juco players and a talented freshman have been added, but expecting too much from those newcomers isn't realistic. One of the few solid scorers back from last season is Junior Matias, a 6-2 senior guard who averaged 12.6 ppg. Fellow backcourt performer Carlos Morban is a decent shooter from three-point range, but needs to look for his shot more often. Belco Bamba and Taurance Johnson are a pair of 6-9 forwards who have some athleticism, but both have plenty to prove. Expecting many more than three league wins from FIU this season is a stretch.

WEST:

UL-LAFAYETTE - With four of the top five scorers from last season back in the fold, it comes as no surprise that the Ragin' Cajuns are the favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference. They have plenty of stability in the middle with Michael Southall, a 6-10 junior who averaged 12.9 ppg and 7.5 rpg a year ago. Brad Boyd, who scored a team-high 16.8 ppg, is back at the shooing guard position, and fellow slasher Laurie Bridges returns 11.9 ppg and 4.8 rpg to the lineup. As if those guards aren't good enough, ULL now has the services of Orien Greene, a transfer from Florida. Greene has SEC talent and will see plenty of time right from the opening game. The Ragin' Cajuns made their most recent trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2000, and a second appearance in five years is a strong possibility.

NEW MEXICO STATE- While there are several players with a realistic shot at winning Sun Belt Player of the Year honors, James Moore may be the favorite. After averaging 18.8 ppg and 6.5 rpg a year ago, the 6-8 senior forward is poised for a sensation final season at NMSU. With 142 career blocks to his credit, Moore can get the job done at both ends of the court. The star will have plenty of work to do, as three strong scorers from last year's squad have moved on. Guard Allen Haynes is a good shooter from three-point range, and he will need to get plenty of looks. James Felder battled injury early last season, and it will be interesting to see if he can provide strong play on the interior now that he is healthy.

SOUTH ALABAMA - Chris Young has never been afraid to shoot the ball, and the 6-1 senior guard will once again fire at will in 2003-04. Young is coming off a season in which he averaged 15.9 ppg in part because of 38.1 percent shooting from three-point range. Malerick Bedden is taller at 6-6, and he netted 13.4 ppg on the strength of 51.5 percent shooting from the floor, including 42.1 percent from behind the arc. Young and Bedden form one of the Sun Belt's top duos, and they will be expected to carry the team. Larry Thompson will help out tremendously, as he appears to be healthy after missing all of last season with injury. If Thompson can once again become a double- digit scorer like he was prior to the injury, USA may challenge UL-Lafayette for the division crown.

DENVER - Terry Carroll was thrilled with his team's effort in the league tournament victory over UL-Lafayette last season, but expecting the Pioneers to be able to keep pace with the Cajuns during the regular season is not really an option at this point. Brett Starkey is clearly the key to the team's success, as he averaged 12 ppg on 50 percent shooting from the floor to go along with 9.7 rpg as a senior. Erik Benzel provides a complement on the perimeter, as he is coming off a campaign in which he averaged 11.2 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting from three-point range. While those two players can be counted on for consistent production, forwards Zelijko Zupic and Carvell McAlister need to prove that they can provide solid contributions every time out. Denver has never won a conference title, and its first won't come this season.

NEW ORLEANS - The fact that the Privateers lost seven of their final 10 games last season and no longer have the benefit of Hector Romero down low is cause for concern. Still, New Orleans can take solace in the presence of Johnell Smith, who averaged 13.7 ppg a year ago in a reserve role. It is unclear if Smith will again serve as a sixth man, but he will definitely see plenty of court time. Fellow guard Kyle Buggs can flat out shoot, as he drained 43.5 percent of his long-range attempts a season ago. Kenrell Martin has some range as well, but he is basically unproven at this point. One player to keep an eye on is Victor Brown, who has good size at 6-9 to go along with some solid talent. New Orleans will remain competitive in most of its games, but it simply can not hang with some of the league's top squads.

NORTH TEXAS - Chris Davis basically carried the Mean Green during his tenure with the program, and the void left by the star's departure figures to be impossible to fill. Considering that North Texas won only two league games with Davis last season, the possibility of a major turnaround seems remote. The good news is that Leonard Hopkins, who missed the majority of last season due to injury, is apparently healthy and prepared to assume the role of being the team's top offensive option. The 6-3 junior guard averaged 12.7 ppg before the injury. Shawnson Johnson is a 6-9 center who transferred from LSU, and it will be interesting to see if he can play up to potential. Michael DeGrate and Will Smith are a pair of seniors who will play a great deal, and both are eager to prove that they can hang. Unfortunately for the Mean Green, many losses are in the future and a last place finish in the SBC West is almost a guarantee.