Why this year is so important for UNT Football

Harry · September 17, 2015

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Overall the last 10 years have not been kind to UNT football with only one winning season. However, Mac can point to the fact we have been overall trending upward since he arrived in 2011. When you average together Mac's 4 seasons thus far, he is winning 5.5 games a year. This is much higher than his predecessor Todd Dodge who only averaged 2 wins a season in the same time frame.

So - if you look at this historically, Mac has an argument that his 4 years have borne more fruit than UNT has seen from it's football program in some time. And he can point to academics, where he is clearly head and shoulders above really any coach in modern history.

Back to my original point -- Mac had a down year in 2014 and he needs to pick it back up in 2015 to reverse the trend. Frankly, Todd Dodge is Mac's best friend as his overall record does not set the bar very high. But, the trends on winning and losing matter.. Mac could tell recruits back in 2011-13 that for the most part UNT was trending back up and poised to make it's mark. The 4-win season in 2014 has us going in the opposite direction and that is why turning things around in 2015 is so important.

If it were me, I would look at the entire situation, our facilities, our academic support, our conference, our budget and build that around an on average 6 win season. Anything less than that is unacceptable. Now, I am willing to give a coach some time to get there. But 6 wins should be the minimum expectation for us in C-USA. Right now Mac is sitting at 5.5 and clearly 2013 was a huge boost to his average. However, 2015 could impact it... how much yet we do not know. It will be interesting.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Harry

Cr1028 · September 17, 2015

I have a different take. The graph to me shows that we bottomed out when Dodge's first recruiting class was composed of sophomores and redshirt freshman. He and Canales had the team on an upward trend from there. Despite a small dip in 2012, the upward trend continued with McCarney until Dodge's final recruiting class had reached their senior and redshirt junior seasons(our bowl season). When all but a few Dodge recruits(Y'Barbo, Antonio Johnson, Teegarden, M. Smith) had exhausted their eligibility, the team regressed to about where we were when Dickey and Dodge left. Other than one bowl win and 9-win season, are we better off than we were five years ago? or nine years ago? Just a question.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Cr1028

UNTcrazy727 · September 17, 2015

Honestly, any other program who takes itself seriously would fire Mac if he didn't win 5 games this year. Will we? I'm not sure, but based on some of Flyonthewall's posts this week, I think Mac's seat is WAY hotter than some of us think. And as crazy as it seems, I really wouldn't be surprised to see Mac dismissed if we start off the season 0-5, with the fifth loss being to Portland State on homecoming. IMO, what makes Mac's seat so hot is that all the improvements he made record wise were led by Dodge recruits. Since his guys took over, the program has dropped back down to almost Dodge level with no signs of improvement. I think y'all really highlighted this on the podcast when y'all wondered who would play QB next year because we have NO ONE ready.

In the podcast y'all also talked about how schools don't fire coaches mid-season, but WE fired Dodge in the middle of the 2010 season and actually saw immediate improvement with Canales as head coach. Speaking of Canales, some people like to blame him for our awful offense, but if you look back to when he was OC under Dodge and head coach, the offense was dynamic and actually moved the ball up and down the field. I think if Mac were to be fired during the season you would see a drastic change in our offense. Not saying Canales should be considered for the job because he might have the biggest hand in our current QB situation. Plus, whenever Mac is let go we need to completely clean house.

Edited September 17, 2015 by UNTcrazy727

Harry · September 17, 2015

Not saying Canales should be considered for the job because he might have the biggest hand in our current QB situation. And whenever Mac is let go we need to completely clean house.

Has there ever been a coach hired as interim twice in the same program? Let's see someone research that.

Cr1028 · September 17, 2015

For all of Dodge's failures, in his four recruiting classes, he brought us four quality quarterbacks. The only four quarterbacks Dodge signed were, in order, Giovanni Vizza, Riley Dodge, Derek Thompson, and Derek Teegarden. Other than Teegarden moving to receiver, this is an impressive list.

McCarney's first four recruiting classes included 7 quarterback signees. They were Cooper Jones, Andrew McNulty, Brent Osborn, Dajon Williams, Brock Berglund, Josh Greer, and Connor Means. I would take Riley, DT, or Vizza over any qb Mac has signed here yet. I hope 2015 qb signee Damarcus Smith becomes the exception and not the rule when it comes to McCarney quarterback recruits.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Cr1028

Cerebus · September 17, 2015

Has there ever been a coach hired as interim twice in the same program? Let's see someone research that.

Wasn't Snyder hired as an interim,once stepping out of the AD's chair, at Kansas State?

Marty · September 17, 2015

For all of Dodge's failures, in his four recruiting classes, he brought us four quality quarterbacks. The only four quarterbacks Dodge signed were, in order, Giovanni Vizza, Riley Dodge, Derek Thompson, and Derek Teegarden. Other than Teegarden moving to receiver, this is an impressive list.
McCarney's first four recruiting classes included 7 quarterback signees. They were Cooper Jones, Andrew McNulty, Brent Osborn, Dajon Williams, Brock Berglund, Josh Greer, and Connor Means. I would take Riley, DT, or Vizza over any qb Mac has signed here yet. I hope 2015 qb signee Damarcus Smith becomes the exception and not the rule when it comes to McCarney quarterback recruits.

Nathan Tune walked on during the Dodge era also. I'd take him over anyone we have right now.

Cr1028 · September 17, 2015

Nathan Tune walked on during the Dodge era also. I'd take him over anyone we have right now.

I believe he walked on with Dickey but yes, he was still better than what we have. Dodge coached him up well. Dodge was and is a great qb coach, he just made poor choices for assistant coaches.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Cr1028

Censored by Laurie · September 17, 2015

I want to contribute substantively to this conversation...I really do...but @Harry I just can't mentally get past the fact that your y-axis is labeled in 2.4 win intervals. can you explain your rationale here?

Cerebus · September 17, 2015

I believe he walked on with Dickey but yes, he was still better than what we have.

Yes he redshirted in 2006, Dickey's last year.

meanrob · September 17, 2015

Under the last three years of Dodge and Canales here's where the offense finished-

2008- 72nd (20 pts a game)

2009- 55th (26 pts a game)

2010- 79th (24 pts a game)

Better than Mac but not "dynamic". Not even the NCAA average. This was with Dunbar.

Take a look what NIU or Ark State have averaged over the same period. "Offensive starved" doesn't even begin to state the problem.

Cerebus · September 17, 2015

I want to contribute substantively to this conversation...I really do...but @Harry I just can't mentally get past the fact that your y-axis is labeled in 2.4 win intervals. can you explain your rationale here?

12 wins spread over a 10 step graph. Every second step is labelled.

As to WHY that was done... only God and Harry know.

UNTcrazy727 · September 17, 2015

Under the last three years of Dodge and Canales here's where the offense finished-
2008- 72nd (20 pts a game)
2009- 55th (26 pts a game)
2010- 79th (24 pts a game)
Better than Mac but not "dynamic". Not even the NCAA average. This was with Dunbar.
Take a look what NIU or Ark State have averaged over the same period. "Offensive starved" doesn't even begin to state the problem.

I don't think Canales got here until 2010... and I never said we put up a ton of points, but compared to what we have now those offenses were dynamic and could at least move the ball.

Cr1028 · September 17, 2015

Under the last three years of Dodge and Canales here's where the offense finished-
2008- 72nd (20 pts a game)
2009- 55th (26 pts a game)
2010- 79th (24 pts a game)
Better than Mac but not "dynamic". Not even the NCAA average. This was with Dunbar.
Take a look what NIU or Ark State have averaged over the same period. "Offensive starved" doesn't even begin to state the problem.

2008-57th (363yds/game)

2009-36th (409yds/game)

2010-64th (375yds/game)

His offense could move the ball between the 20s, he just wouldn't get out of that damn shotgun at the goal line.

For comparison,

2014-117th (326yds/game) take out the 526 we put up on Nicholls and it drops to (283yds/game) which would be 125th. Dodge's defenses sucked, his special teams weren't good, but he knew who could play quarterback and who couldn't. For crying out loud he had Chase freaking Baine putting up McNulty-like numbers without the interceptions.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Cr1028

meanrob · September 17, 2015

I don't think Canales got here until 2010... and I never said we put up a ton of points, but compared to what we have now those offenses were dynamic and could at least move the ball.

Wasn't meaning to take a shot at you, just showing how low the bar is around here for solid offensive football. When we are an average NCAA offense we are ecstatic.

2008-57th (363yds/game)
2009-36th (409yds/game)
2010-64th (375yds/game)
His offense could move the ball between the 20s, he just wouldn't get out of that damn shotgun at the goal line.

I agree that was part of the problem but with Dunbar we still finished as a below average offense.

Harry · September 17, 2015

@Censored by Laurie =

Cerebus · September 17, 2015

@Censored by Laurie =

LOL.

People, the program is in such a state that Harry is sloshed enough to post this at 12:45PM. If you can't think of any other reason why we need a change in leadership, think of Harry's liver.

ETA:

Harry's response to this post:

Edited September 17, 2015 by Cerebus

UNT90 · September 17, 2015

Last year was the important year. We really needed a follow up bowl season.

The failure to recruit a QB cost this program all of it's momentum.

Aldo · September 17, 2015

We talk about cleaning house, but who do we *not* want to see gone? Cosh (only seen 1 game, solid pedigree), KP, Simmonds (recruiting), Hicks/Carter (DBs have been good/some recruiting), Tommy Perry.

Anyone I'm missing?

Edited September 17, 2015 by Aldo
emphasis on "not"

Mean_Green09 · September 17, 2015

Last year was the important year. We really needed a follow up bowl season.
The failure to recruit a QB cost this program all of it's momentum.

This is spot on Sir! Last year was the important year. We needed to capitalize on success and continue to grow the program. Instead things got stale and outsiders now look at 2013 like it was a fluke. Recruiting also took a hit. Yes the staff found some good players, but it wasnt because of the bowl season in 2013. We failed in an epic way in 2014. It really pointed out the McCarney flaws. That year was supposed to be his type of players, but yet we heard all the bs about its hard to recruit here, and we dont have enough D1 players. I dont see Chad Morris complaining about his talent. No he is making it work bc he knows his system works. Mac's ultimate failure will be like most coaches. It will be his inability to find a QB. He also failed to adapt his program to the new times. Love him for 2013 even though he under achieved with a good team. Dislike him for putting our program behind. I hate playing catch-up. Also if you're going to change you offensive scheme like we have about 3 times under Mac then please bring in a different OC.

untjim1995 · September 17, 2015

Last year was the important year. We really needed a follow up bowl season.
The failure to recruit a QB cost this program all of it's momentum.

This. Last year was the latest reincarnation of us "North Texas-ing" our situation yet again. Just as we did in the SBC bowl years when played OOC or after that run in 2005 when we hosted Tulsa and lost a heartbreaker 54-2, this past season was the wasted one...

I feel like this year is just a re-trenching year. The schedule is ridiculous and harder than any we have played in recent years. The head coach has 4 years left on his contract, so he isn't going anywhere until the end of the 2016 season, bare minimum, probably 2017. If Todd Dodge and Tony Benford got 4th years of their 5 year contracts, McCarney, who makes more than both of them combined, will get a 4th year.

My expectation for this season was that we finish 3-4 wins--now that we have lost to SMU, I don't see more than 2 wins. So next season, with a new OC, the goal is to get back to 3-4 wins, then aim for a winning season again in 2017. It sucks terribly to look at it this way, but I don't know how you can reasonably think anything different about the current season and the one to follow. 2017 is the earliest we can have a better, more experienced busdriver that could be combined with an effective defense and special teams.

I think the reality here is that we could easily be looking at the rest of 2015 and 2016 providing us with a total of somewhere between 4-6 wins combined. The bottoming out, hopefully, will be this season.

adman · September 17, 2015

. Not saying Canales should be considered for the job because he might have the biggest hand in our current QB situation. Plus, whenever Mac is let go we need to completely clean house.

Canales has been OC/QB coach for SIX YEARS at North Texas. Six. Let that sink in. Six years and not one QB who can even qualify as an average CUSA level QB.

We talk about cleaning house, but who do we not want to see gone? Cosh (only seen 1 game, solid pedigree), KP, Simmonds (recruiting), Hicks/Carter (DBs have been good/some recruiting), Tommy Perry.
Anyone I'm missing?

We sure as hell don't want Tommy Perry leaving. Solid recruiter identifies good talent and Special Teams are fantastic under him. Sadly, he'll get poached sooner rather than later.

Edited September 17, 2015 by adman

Cr1028 · September 17, 2015

Canales has been OC/QB coach for SEVEN YEARS at North Texas. Seven. Let that sink in. Seven years and not one QB who can even qualify as an average CUSA level QB.

This is his sixth year(only one more than #5). He was here for all but one year of DT and he was at the very least an average CUSA level QB. The Broncos didn't invite him over as a favor to Mac, that's for sure. I like that he is wearing the Darrell Dickey memorial patch.

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