MGN Inside the Numbers: North Texas Offense Must Improve Explosiveness

Mean_Green09 · August 4, 2015

MGN:

Inside the Numbers: North Texas Offense Must Improve Explosiveness

SilverEagle · August 4, 2015

"North Texas has a long way to go to reach an offense that is capable of being noticed on a national level. I will say that I do think NT is capable of reaching Boise St type of stats. Its going to take Coach Mac seeing the light and opening the offense up. I know its hard for a defensive minded guy like McCarney to take the reigns off his offense, but in order to awaken the sleeping giant he better do it. Coach Mac isnt a dummy he has seen the benefits of other defensive minded coaches allowing their offenses to be wide open. You can still have a good defense will a spread up tempo wide open offense."

I believe he doesn't need to look any further than Fort Worth Texas where Gary Patterson, a person who is one of the most defensive minded coaches in the nation, has a very high powered offense.......that gets noticed.

Let's see, where are they ranked nationally?

Are you listening Mac?

Harry · August 4, 2015

Nice article! Good job as always. You know an article is good when it gets you to think about the subject from different perspectives.

This really highlights how important the skill position players will be on offense this year no matter who is under center. I agree with you on Willy Ivery and his potential impact but it did raise a question to me on his issues of holding onto the ball and how that could play into his reps. We all know now how Mac hates, despises turnovers.

It also got me thinking about where turnover margin plays into all this. Interestingly enough last season La. Tech was 10th best in the country in turnover margin with 26 turnovers gained (fumbles and interceptions) and 13 lost netting a margin of 1.08 which I believe means they had over one extra possession to use in every game they played in... the math works like this 26-13=13/12 games=1.08

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/1059

North Texas wasn't horrible with 8 fumbles recovered and 11 int's for 19 turnovers gained and 4 fumbles lost and 14 interceptions for 18 turnovers lost netting them a .08 margin per game avg. It means in 2014 this was basically a wash. I am guessing our turnover margin in 2013 resembled La Tech's in 2014 but I haven't checked that.

So, the catch 22 is, knowing that turnover margin is SO important to Mac and even in a 4-win season we were among the top 50 in turnover margin nationally...how much leeway will he give to players who we know have that explosive capability like a Willy Ivery IF they potentially could turn the ball over. In other words, you have to pick your poison in some regards. The best thing that could happen is for Ivery to learn not to turn the ball over and that would solve a lot of our problems. I have no data to back this up, but I would think that players and plays that are more explosive on average will have a higher risk of a turnover. This backs up the author's spot on question of will Mac "take the reigns off"?

Edited August 4, 2015 by Harry

97and03 · August 5, 2015

The link you supply says:

Last updated - January 14, 2013 Through games of January 8, 2013

1
2
3

This one has 2014 and has LaTech at #5, with a 1.14 margin (42-26, both highest in top 50)

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/29

Shows us at 22-22. You can do that math.

This site shows us at tied for 14 in 2013, with a +11 (34-23) margin (.85)

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort01.html

Both our 4 win season under Mac at 0 TO margin. 5-7 year 19th with .67.

Cr1028 · August 5, 2015

Boykin>McNulty

Offense is handcuffed by the ability of the quarterback. TCU has a Heisman contender at qb, we don't even have an all-conference honorable mention contender.

Green P1 · August 5, 2015

"Inside the Numbers: North Texas Must Improve Explosiveness of WR Screens Thrown Behind the Line of Scrimmage"

fify

Mean_Green09 · August 5, 2015

Boykin>McNulty
Offense is handcuffed by the ability of the quarterback. TCU has a Heisman contender at qb, we don't even have an all-conference honorable mention contender.

I dont believe that we need our QB to be as dynamic as Boykin to have a winning season this year. To get to a Boise Level, yes its going to take a play making QB. No way do we hit 6+ YPP without a player like Boykin or an all conference caliber QB.

I also believe our offense has been handcuffed by the QB, but also the coaching staff. I dont believe the staff has designed the offense in previous years to be explosive. Methodical yes, explosive no. How many teams now a days are able to put together 15+ play long drives? Thats what I felt like our offense was forced to do. If the defense couldnt provide good field position then it makes really tough on offense to score. The average starting field position last year for NT was the 32 yard line . The average starting field position when NT scored TDs was at their own 42. NT started 70 yards or further on 62% of their drives last year. 75% of those drives ended with no points. Last year we werent equipped to be methodical or explosive. This year I believe we have the skill players to have an explosive offense, but I wonder if the coaching staff will design an offense that uses our skill makers strengths.

Aldo · August 5, 2015

I also believe our offense has been handcuffed by the QB, but also the coaching staff. I dont believe the staff has designed the offense in previous years to be explosive. Methodical yes, explosive no. How many teams now a days are able to put together 15+ play long drives? Thats what I felt like our offense was forced to do.

The horizontal passing game is probably my biggest frustration. Sometimes it's used during three receiver sets, but when the receivers are split with two on the far side. So that means you've got to get the ball all the way down there, one guy blocking, and hoping that Harris makes that first guy miss at the LOS. That's not setting your guys up for success.

But (playing devil's advocate here), both Greer and McNulty had inconsistencies throwing balls down the seams over a LB and/or in front of a S. So with the talent that you do have, do you want to risk turnovers, or methodically march it down 4.9 yards every play on screens, dumps, and runs off pistol sets against CUSA level play?

jdennis82 · August 5, 2015

Great article.

I recently visited Knowhuddle.com to find the area NT most needed to improve that would have the greatest correlation to winning and you've identified the top 2 I found..

#1 - Yards per point differential = 69% correlation w/ winning percentage

#2 - Offensive Explosiveness = 63% correlation w/ winning percentage

I am hopeful that our coaching staff has talent enough at the play making positions offensively and in the defensive secondary that should allow them to scheme a greater explosiveness differential in 2015.

FirefightnRick · August 6, 2015

Marshal had the best offense in '13 and came in second just ahead of us.

im all for "Explosiveness" but it takes a "distributor" who is a dual threat. If you don't have that then you had better have a top 25 defense.

Also, it's difficult to be "Explosive" when the most "Explosive" player on the team rarely gets the ball. That's not a lack of "Explosiveness", that's a lack of coaching.

Rick

UNT90 · August 6, 2015

"Sleeping giant"

Give me an F'n break. What we are is a slumbering drawf, and will remain that way until the President and the BOR get serious about athletocs and hire an AD that is a difference maker. RV has been here 14 freaking years and has advanced the needle a millimeter.

But hey, he is a nice guy, so the good old boy system keeps him around. If they do it after a miserable football and basketball season this year, I'm out, as should EVERY supporter of UNT athletocs. Then, just maybe, the president and the BOR would open their eyes to the terrible job performance of this AD over the last 14 years.

Cr1028 · August 6, 2015

"Sleeping giant"

Give me an F'n break. What we are is a slumbering drawf, and will remain that way until the President and the BOR get serious about athletocs and hire an AD that is a difference maker. RV has been here 14 freaking years and has advanced the needle a millimeter.

But hey, he is a nice guy, so the good old boy system keeps him around. If they do it after a miserable football and basketball season this year, I'm out, as should EVERY supporter of UNT athletocs. Then, just maybe, the president and the BOR would open their eyes to the terrible job performance of this AD over the last 14 years.

Let's not go off the deep end. If you could've told the fanbase 14 years ago that over the next 14 years you will have 5 bowl appearances with 2 victories, 4 conference titles. 2 NCAA tournament appearances(don't know how many basketball conference titles or 20 win seasons), have one basketball coach stolen by UT and another by LSU, a new stadium, new practice facility, a better conference, new athletic center, a new softball field and a new soccer field,, I think most fans would've jumped at the chance. How much did NT advance in the 14 years prior to RV? I wasn't around so I don't know.

Marshal had the best offense in '13 and came in second just ahead of us.

im all for "Explosiveness" but it takes a "distributor" who is a dual threat. If you don't have that then you had better have a top 25 defense.
Also, it's difficult to be "Explosive" when the most "Explosive" player on the team rarely gets the ball. That's not a lack of "Explosiveness", that's a lack of coaching.

Rick

or the lack of a distributor

Edited August 6, 2015 by Cr1028

Army of Dad · August 6, 2015

Let's not go off the deep end. If you could've told the fanbase 14 years ago that over the next 14 years you will have 5 bowl appearances with 2 victories, 4 conference titles. 2 NCAA tournament appearances(don't know how many basketball conference titles or 20 win seasons), have one basketball coach stolen by UT and another by LSU, a new stadium, new practice facility, a better conference, new athletic center, a new softball field and a new soccer field,, I think most fans would've jumped at the chance. How much did NT advance in the 14 years prior to RV? I wasn't around so I don't know.

and how many times did Football appear in the Bottom 10 over that last 14 years.

UNT90 · August 6, 2015

And how was the basketball program and football program set back a decade by 2 terrible hires who were allowed to stick around for 4 years?

FOUR YEARS! Even though it was very obvious very early both were in WAY over their head.

UNTcrazy727 · August 6, 2015

Boykin>McNulty
Offense is handcuffed by the ability of the quarterback. TCU has a Heisman contender at qb, we don't even have an all-conference honorable mention contender.

Neither was Derek Thompson

untjim1995 · August 6, 2015

"Sleeping giant"

Give me an F'n break. What we are is a slumbering drawf, and will remain that way until the President and the BOR get serious about athletocs and hire an AD that is a difference maker. RV has been here 14 freaking years and has advanced the needle a millimeter.

But hey, he is a nice guy, so the good old boy system keeps him around. If they do it after a miserable football and basketball season this year, I'm out, as should EVERY supporter of UNT athletocs. Then, just maybe, the president and the BOR would open their eyes to the terrible job performance of this AD over the last 14 years.

It wouldn't change a thing in their eyes if there was a mass exodus. Look at hoops--we went from averaging crowds that are double or triple the size we get now--and yet nothing was done about it because it would cost too much. Known costs are always the first hurdle for the BOR and administration. Everything else follows. Think about it--they literally are just fine with keeping Benford for a 4th year at half the attendance of the year before he got here because it would knowingly cost $325k per year that they had to buy out. Opportunity costs don't even matter...and the same will be true of McCarney, too, if he loses big time in the next two seasons. We won't buyout an extra $650k for anything more than one year. Its just not what we do. Vic Trilli, Todd Dodge, and Tony Benford are all proof of this.

Cr1028 · August 6, 2015

And how was the basketball program and football program set back a decade by 2 terrible hires who were allowed to stick around for 4 years?

FOUR YEARS! Even though it was very obvious very early both were in WAY over their head.

Like it or not, Todd Dodge was a major contributor to our getting Apogee Stadium. I can't say anything good about Benford.