An honest assessment of 2015 UNT Football

Harry · June 28, 2015

In case you missed it, I thought this write-up provided some of the best analysis out there in regards to UNT's situation heading into the 2015 season.

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A year after winning nine games and putting one of the best mid-major products onto the field, Dan McCarney was tasked with replacing his quarterback, his leading rusher, his two leading receivers (and starting tight end), six members of his defensive front seven, a stud free safety, and one of the best return men in the country. He boasted what was expected to be a good offensive line, a good punter, and ... mysteries.

He didn't solve many. He went through three quarterbacks before he found one who could complete 50 percent without turnovers. He never really found a running back. He found a receiver, but he didn't have a quarterback to get Carlos Harris the ball. His offensive line more or less fell apart. His defense fell apart because of both inconsistency and injury. His defensive coordinator retired.

Building a winner is hard, and no program understands that better than North Texas.

The Mean Green went 18-4 in 1977-78 under Hayden Fry, lost Fry to Iowa, fell to 2-9, and dropped out of the Division I-A ranks. They came back in 1995 and proceeded to go 19-47 over six seasons before breaking through under Darrell Dickey and winning four consecutive Sun Belt titles. And as quickly as it came together, it fell apart. After winning 24 games from 2002-04, North Texas won 13 from 2005-10. McCarney took over after the disastrous Todd Dodge era, won nine games in his first two years, then won nine in his third. And again, it fell apart.

If 2014 was about the depth of the fall, 2015 is about the ferocity of the rebound. With all the experience they didn't have, the Mean Green should bounce back from last year's No. 125 F/+ ranking, but by how much? Five spots? Twenty? McCarney has options on offense and injury-related depth, but we'll find out how much actual talent his roster has.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/3/17/8214539/north-texas-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster#comments

Edited June 28, 2015 by Harry

Cr1028 · June 28, 2015

In case you missed it, I thought this write-up provided some of the best analysis out there in regards to UNT's situation heading into the 2015 season.
----------------
A year after winning nine games and putting one of the best mid-major products onto the field, Dan McCarney was tasked with replacing his quarterback, his leading rusher, his two leading receivers (and starting tight end), six members of his defensive front seven, a stud free safety, and one of the best return men in the country. He boasted what was expected to be a good offensive line, a good punter, and ... mysteries.
He didn't solve many. He went through three quarterbacks before he found one who could complete 50 percent without turnovers. He never really found a running back. He found a receiver, but he didn't have a quarterback to get Carlos Harris the ball. His offensive line more or less fell apart. His defense fell apart because of both inconsistency and injury. His defensive coordinator retired.
Building a winner is hard, and no program understands that better than North Texas.
The Mean Green went 18-4 in 1977-78 under Hayden Fry, lost Fry to Iowa, fell to 2-9, and dropped out of the Division I-A ranks. They came back in 1995 and proceeded to go 19-47 over six seasons before breaking through under Darrell Dickey and winning four consecutive Sun Belt titles. And as quickly as it came together, it fell apart. After winning 24 games from 2002-04, North Texas won 13 from 2005-10. McCarney took over after the disastrous Todd Dodge era, won nine games in his first two years, then won nine in his third. And again, it fell apart.
If 2014 was about the depth of the fall, 2015 is about the ferocity of the rebound. With all the experience they didn't have, the Mean Green should bounce back from last year's No. 125 F/+ ranking, but by how much? Five spots? Twenty? McCarney has options on offense and injury-related depth, but we'll find out how much actual talent his roster has.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/3/17/8214539/north-texas-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster#comments

If he found one, I sure wish he would tell us about him and use him in a game already.

emmitt01 · June 29, 2015

I think too much is made of the QB situation. If Mac were the defensive genius he says he is we could be carried by defense and special teams like we were in 2013. McNulty is the same QB Thompson was.

GreenMachine · June 29, 2015

I think too much is made of the QB situation. If Mac were the defensive genius he says he is we could be carried by defense and special teams like we were in 2013. McNulty is the same QB Thompson was.

Unt90's boner for DT says otherwise.

Cr1028 · June 29, 2015

Unt90's boner for DT says otherwise.

I agree with 90's boner.

SilverEagle · June 29, 2015

I think too much is made of the QB situation. If Mac were the defensive genius he says he is we could be carried by defense and special teams like we were in 2013. McNulty is the same QB Thompson was.

We are deep at RB and WR. So all of it hinges on how our OL and DL develop this fall. If we can consistently open running lanes for our talented (and deep) RB corp, and protect our QB, then we have have an excellent chance of him being a consistent delivery system to our WR's. If our interior DL can start stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage so that our DB's don't turn out to be some of our highest statistical tacklers, then we'll be fine.

untjim1995 · June 29, 2015

The schedule will mask any improvement we may see from the defense, while the OL will be get some great experience that should pay dividends in 2016 and 2017, when the schedule gets back to a more manageable one. The reason I look at 2017 is that we should have an experienced busdriver at QB with a decent OL and a better defense by then. That's when I think a 2013 season could happen again here. 2016 is the year I just want to see us get back to .500. This upcoming year is just about player development--sad, but the schedule is way too much for where we are as a program right now. I see us winning 3-4 this year, 5-6 next year, and 7+ in the year after. The ironic thing about this scenario is that 2017 is the 4th year of Mac's contract, meaning we either fish or cut bait with him after this. RV could easily extend him out another 3-5 years beyond 2018 if he gets a decent season again in 2017.

Edited July 6, 2015 by untjim1995

Harry · June 29, 2015

We are deep at RB and WR. So all of it hinges on how our OL and DL develop this fall. If we can consistently open running lanes for our talented (and deep) RB corp, and protect our QB, then we have have an excellent chance of him being a consistent delivery system to our WR's. If our interior DL can start stuffing the run at the line of scrimmage so that our DB's don't turn out to be some of our highest statistical tacklers, then we'll be fine.

I think stating we are deep is a tad bit of a stretch. Jeff Wilson has not proven yet that he can stay health for a season. At WR we have proven depth with Carlos Harris but Kidsy was inconsistent. I agree with you we could be ok at defense because Courtney Finney is the real deal although we will SORELY miss Akunne.

Say what you will, but we have a nice group of athletes on this roster. As Mac would say, not enough speed but more than we have had in awhile.

Ben Gooding · June 29, 2015

The schedule may be more difficult than most years, but it's navigable. There are question marks on both sides of the ball, but there is also talent there as well. I, for one, disagree with Emmit stating that the QB position is not as important as many are saying. We can't have a 2013 season, consistently. Having a top 25 D takes good recruiting mixed with a lot of experience and that is something a G5 program can't consistently manufacture. A good QB can however mask many issues along an OL and can hide several defensive flaws by simply keeping the O on the field and the D off of it If D Smith is what I think he is, I will say again, this schedule is navigible. I legitimately believe we can start the season at 4-1 to set up a Thursday night televised game vs WKU at home. With a good crowd at hand we will have a shot at that upset. If we start 5-1 then finishing the year at 8-4 or 7-5 is very doable. We really, really need D Smith to come into fall camp showcasing his talents and then (and maybe more difficult) we need Mac to start the best QB on our roster Sep 12 for this to come to fruition. GMG

Fry Guy · June 29, 2015

We really, really need D Smith to come into fall camp showcasing his talents and then (and maybe more difficult) we need Mac to start the best QB on our roster Sep 12 for this to come to fruition. GMG

I couldn't agree with you more.

untjim1995 · June 29, 2015

The schedule may be more difficult than most years, but it's navigable. There are question marks on both sides of the ball, but there is also talent there as well. I, for one, disagree with Emmit stating that the QB position is not as important as many are saying. We can't have a 2013 season, consistently. Having a top 25 D takes good recruiting mixed with a lot of experience and that is something a G5 program can't consistently manufacture. A good QB can however mask many issues along an OL and can hide several defensive flaws by simply keeping the O on the field and the D off of it If D Smith is what I think he is, I will say again, this schedule is navigible. I legitimately believe we can start the season at 4-1 to set up a Thursday night televised game vs WKU at home. With a good crowd at hand we will have a shot at that upset. If we start 5-1 then finishing the year at 8-4 or 7-5 is very doable. We really, really need D Smith to come into fall camp showcasing his talents and then (and maybe more difficult) we need Mac to start the best QB on our roster Sep 12 for this to come to fruition. GMG

McCarney should be National Coach of the Year if this thing goes 8-4...There is not enough green kool-aid out there to make me believe that is even within the realm of possibility with McNulty as the QB and the schedule we face. Damarcus Smith ain't starting here, BG. You're getting your hopes up for something that isn't gonna happen. He might be the starter by October, but he isn't going to be in September.

GOMG2013 · June 29, 2015

The schedule will mask any improvement we may see from the defense, while the OL will be get some great experience that should pay dividends in 2016 and 2017, when the schedule gets back to a more manageable one. The reason I look at 2017 is that we should have an experienced busdriver at QB with a decent OL and a better defense by then. That's when I think a 2013 season could happen again here. 2016 is the year I just want to see us get back to .500. This upcoming year is just about player development--sad, but the schedule is way too much for where we are as a program right now. I see us winning 3-4 this year, 5-6 next year, and 7+ in the year after. The ironic thing about this scenario is that 2017 is the 4th year of Mac's contract, meaning we either fish or cut bait with him after this. RV could easily exteng him out another 3-5 years beyond 2018 if he gets a decent season again in 2017.

5 or 6 wins next year will be a disaster considering there are 33 Juniors on the roster. 2016 sets up as our chance for another 2013 type season. Next year's team will lose Buyers, Bean, Harris, Banogu, Orr and M. Smith, Jimmerson, Thompson and McNulty.

In 2016 We could potentially return 3 starters in the secondary and a nickel. 2 -3 starting LBs, and 3 starting DL. Biggest losses on defense will be Buyers and Orr.

On offense we would return Smiley, Kidsy, D Smith, Rice, Miles, Kirby, Wilson.

And we have a good chance of going 3-1 with an OOC schedule of Florida, SMU, Army, and an easy game scheduled in Apogee against an FCS opponent. Since we have this brutal CUSA schedule this year, I would expect to see an easier one next year with possibly, FAU, FIU, ODU, Char and others. Would mind WKU nect year considering they will be losing a lot.

I'm hoping we can get to at least 5 wins this year and bring back 16-18 starters.

Ben Gooding · June 30, 2015

McCarney should be National Coach of the Year if this thing goes 8-4...There is not enough green kool-aid out there to make me believe that is even within the realm of possibility with McNulty as the QB and the schedule we face. Damarcus Smith ain't starting here, BG. You're getting your hopes up for something that isn't gonna happen. He might be the starter by October, but he isn't going to be in September.

i agree, if AM is our starter going into October before he inevitably gets pulled for D Smith we are looking at 3-4 wins. And if that happens Dan McCarney's head should be rolling out of the athletic complex at seasons end. AM is clear as day not the best available option for optimal success going into the season. DM coaching is in question as is his piss poor management of personnel. The best player should be starting at every position regardless of class, age or experience. Its that simple.

SilverEagle · June 30, 2015

I think stating we are deep is a tad bit of a stretch. Jeff Wilson has not proven yet that he can stay health for a season. At WR we have proven depth with Carlos Harris but Kidsy was inconsistent. I agree with you we could be ok at defense because Courtney Finney is the real deal although we will SORELY miss Akunne.
Say what you will, but we have a nice group of athletes on this roster. As Mac would say, not enough speed but more than we have had in awhile.

Jeff Wilson was playing with mainly raw ability right out of HS (and a very small one at that) last year. We'll see how things go with a full off season of working with weights and coaching. After Wilson and Jimmerson, we have Rollins, Ivery, Ezzard, Tucker, and Porter. Lots of speed and lots of quickness.And they can all catch the ball. For power we have J. Lynn, and he too can catch the ball. Even if two or three of them get hurt, we still have depth.

For experience at WR you left off Smiley. He was more consistent than Kidsey. After watching spring practices, I found the Carthage boys to have very good potential with Rutherford impressing me a little more than Goree. As I've said many times already, Kahn is going to make a great slot receiver. And I hope that (JC WR ) T. Thompson was given a ship because he is real special. We have much better height and a little better speed than we've had in years.

UNT90 · July 3, 2015

I agree with 90's boner.

agreeing is the same as liking, even potentially... loving, right?...

Cr1028 · July 6, 2015

agreeing is the same as liking, even potentially... loving, right?...

Absolutely. I love 90's boner for DT.

North Texas Shep · July 6, 2015

So if this QB problem does work out badly (as many are assuming), we are 3 -9, and Coach Mack is let go. You guys think Chico could do the job?

untjim1995 · July 6, 2015

So if this QB problem does work out badly (as many are assuming), we are 3 -9, and Coach Mack is let go. You guys think Chico could do the job?

Mac could go 0-12 and we ain't firing him to pay for three years of his contract. If we did, we would probably have to hire the head coach at Strickland Middle School to coach here, as it would be all we could afford at that time.

A bad season, less than 4 wins, means that Chico is gone after this year, when his contract runs out--again with the timing of buyouts around here being what determines firings/hirings.

ChristopherRyanWilkes · July 6, 2015

The schedule may be more difficult than most years, but it's navigable. There are question marks on both sides of the ball, but there is also talent there as well. I, for one, disagree with Emmit stating that the QB position is not as important as many are saying. We can't have a 2013 season, consistently. Having a top 25 D takes good recruiting mixed with a lot of experience and that is something a G5 program can't consistently manufacture. A good QB can however mask many issues along an OL and can hide several defensive flaws by simply keeping the O on the field and the D off of it If D Smith is what I think he is, I will say again, this schedule is navigible. I legitimately believe we can start the season at 4-1 to set up a Thursday night televised game vs WKU at home. With a good crowd at hand we will have a shot at that upset. If we start 5-1 then finishing the year at 8-4 or 7-5 is very doable. We really, really need D Smith to come into fall camp showcasing his talents and then (and maybe more difficult) we need Mac to start the best QB on our roster Sep 12 for this to come to fruition. GMG

I never really understood this statement in football.. Of course they have talent, every D1 football program has "talent," or they wouldn't be playing at this level. The question is do they have more talent than the other teams. For me, it's an emphatic no because we didn't last year and I don't see much of a difference this year from last.

North Texas Shep · July 6, 2015

Mac could go 0-12 and we ain't firing him to pay for three years of his contract. If we did, we would probably have to hire the head coach at Strickland Middle School to coach here, as it would be all we could afford at that time.
A bad season, less than 4 wins, means that Chico is gone after this year, when his contract runs out--again with the timing of buyouts around here being what determines firings/hirings.

This all makes me very sad... I forgot about the extension after one good year. Dang, well Coach Mac needs to step up and give us a good year in 2015. I have my tickets and will there to watch however it turns out.

greenit · July 7, 2015

I agree with the thought that Chico is coaching for his job this year, not Mac. Maybe that is why Mac has 'supposedly' agreed to loosen his grip on the offensive reigns a little. We'll see.

TIgreen01 · July 7, 2015

So if this QB problem does work out badly (as many are assuming), we are 3 -9, and Coach Mack is let go. You guys think Chico could do the job?

That all depends on whether or not he's been the one recruiting QBs since Mac arrived. Especially JUCO QBs. If D. Smith turns out to be a player, he'll be the first one he's landed in 4 years that hasn't been a bust! Not a good track record here, so far.

*Also...didn't mean to +/- the post.....new interface got me.

Army of Dad · July 16, 2015

Mac could go 0-12 and we ain't firing him to pay for three years of his contract. If we did, we would probably have to hire the head coach at Strickland Middle School to coach here, as it would be all we could afford at that time.
A bad season, less than 4 wins, means that Chico is gone after this year, when his contract runs out--again with the timing of buyouts around here being what determines firings/hirings.

Just pray you never have to watch a game coached by that staff. I know I'm thankful I won't have to watch any more.