De. Smith and the Fall

[GOMG2013]

Lee's dropoff was also due to not having a 1st-team all CUSA free safety playing next to him, IMO. That's why I'm expecting just a slight dropoff with McClain, and only because it's going to be McClain's first year as a starter. I hinted at it in my last post, but I think McClain will surpass Lee eventually.

Same for Jones' replacement. He was just a good, well-rounded corner. I could see his replacement being decent, but I don't know about them being all-CUSA this year like he was. Maybe in 2016. All of his potential replacements were "A" or better recruits out of high school (Jackson twins, Grindle, and Chad Davis). The talent is there, but they don't have the experience yet.

I keep saying it, but I just don't see who is a likely candidate to be all conference this year. We can have solid players across the board, but without all CUSA players on defense I don't know if we'll be able to do what we did in 2013 where we just ran the ball and killed clock on offense and leaned on the defense and ST. In 2013 we did have those guys making big plays, with Bellazin being towards the top CUSA in sacks, Orr making a lot of TFLs and plays near the LOS, and Trice getting interceptions and tackles near the LOS.

I just think we're going to need Smith and the offense to win shootouts on occasion. Especially on the road, where our defense has been very bad in every year under Mccarney except 2013.

Im hoping for a few 2nd team and honorable mentions this year with 6 wins and preparing for a big run in 2016.

[foutsrouts]

I think the seniors we lost were our best players. So I can see the JUCO guys being improvements from the players we have back. I think McClain, who I'm very high on, will be a slight dropoff from Lairamie Lee (although I think McClain has more potential), whoever takes over for Akunne will be a dropoff, James Gray will be an improvement from Wade, whoever takes over for James Jones will be a dropoff, whoever takes over for Lincoln will probably be a dropoff, and I could see Combs being as productive as Mason was last year. These are just what I'm thinking, not for sure. Also if Finney wins the job he should be an improvement from A Wallace and Scott at MLB, but they're still on the team.

The one place I'm expecting better production of the guys we're replacing is James Gray at FS taking over for Wade. Other than that, I don't know how realistic it is to expect much better production than guys like Akunne, Jones, and Lee. At least this year. After guys like Combs, Finney, Gray, McClain, and Tillman Johnson have a year under their belts I could really see them forming a good defense in 2016. I'm just uncertain about next year.

Again, it goes back to who has all conference potential. These JUCO guys may be good pickups, but I don't think it's realistic to expect them to be all-CUSA in their first year as a D1 player. Who can be all-CUSA on this defense? If we don't have any all-CUSA players than I don't see how this can be a defense we can lean on. So who has a chance in 2015?

Personally, I'm not sure that a new guy's individual potential to become all-USA at this point is a make or break issue, since being a major multi-year team contributor, along with the overall quality of your defense (as well as overall record) can have a huge impact on all-CUSA selection. If just a couple of the newcomers on D can make a serious impact, then I think we have a chance to be pretty good on defense. Of course we could really use some serious "Abbey-like" improvement from upperclassmen like Wallace, Wallace, and Whitfield to really seal the deal on defense.

[Ben Gooding]

One thing I think our fans may be be doing dangerously is expecting too much of these JUCOs in their first year here. Especially the defensive guys. We lost our two best defensive players (Akunne and Jones) and some solid players who were multi-year contributors. We had some good JUCO additions, but I think expecting that these guys will give us an improvement in their first year, with everyone learning a new system under Cosh, may be expecting too much.

I've brought up the stats, but we give up less than 14 points/game in our wins under Mccarney. He wants to win low-scoring, heavy running games where he keeps the clock ticking and keeps passing to a minimum. Can we do that this year? Can we do that with Mcnulty, or any other bus-driver type QB? Let's take a look at the defense.

In our two years of CUSA play we've had 5 defensive players earn First or Second Team All-CUSA honors. Aaron Bellazin, Zach Orr, Marcus Trice, Derek Akunne, and James Jones. All of those players fit 3 criteria entering the season:

1. Was highly recruited (at least a "B" recruit, usually better

2. Had D1 experience (starting and rotational experience)

3. Had panned out (proven they were good and not a bust).

If you look at our defense, we don't have anyone who fits all three of those criteria heading into this year. Those JUCO guys have no D1 experience, and while some are solid pickups, the chances of them being all-CUSA this year is not great. If our defense has 0 all-CUSA guys then that's not a defense we can lean on.

Hopefully some of these guys can buck the trend and prove that you don't need all three of those criteria to be all-CUSA. But if it proves true and we don't get have any all-CUSA players this year then we'll need to score more than we usually do to win. Bus drivers won't cut it in that case.

I guess a question would be, unbiased opinion, what makes us believe we may be improved on defense this year?

I think the D will be improved. The DL was pressing the entire D into a big liability all season. I think with the experience that Wallace gained will go a long way. I also think Tillman Johnson is going to be a really good player. Tauualo has a redshirt year under his belt and I expect him to be a big contributor. A lot of players got valuable experience along that DL and I expect the DL to be much better. Unlike the OL the DL can and usually does make or break a D. Whereas skill position players and solid QB play can hide a lot of the flaws if an OL. Again, I expect the D to be much better bc of our inevitably (can't be much worse) improved DL. You also keep asking who is going to be our All-CUSA player on D. I don't know in what capacity, but someone on the DL will be All-CUSA. Could be Combs, Wallace, Johnson, Polk, Taaulo, etc. but someone will be. GMG

[BillySee58]

Personally, I'm not sure that a new guy's individual potential to become all-USA at this point is a make or break issue, since being a major multi-year team contributor, along with the overall quality of your defense (as well as overall record) can have a huge impact on all-CUSA selection. If just a couple of the newcomers on D can make a serious impact, then I think we have a chance to be pretty good on defense. Of course we could really use some serious "Abbey-like" improvement from upperclassmen like Wallace, Wallace, and Whitfield to really seal the deal on defense.

I agree that it shouldn't be a thing that could make or break our year. But I'm afraid there's a chance that may be the case this year.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but the odds are not in our favor. My whole point is that, because of that very realistic possibility, we need to be preparing this offense to be one that can win games and not just not lose games. With this schedule and the odds this defense is facing, going for the 2013 offense formula may not be a good idea.

Edited February 18, 2015 by BillySee58

[BillySee58]

I think the D will be improved. The DL was pressing the entire D into a big liability all season. I think with the experience that Wallace gained will go a long way. I also think Tillman Johnson is going to be a really good player. Tauualo has a redshirt year under his belt and I expect him to be a big contributor. A lot of players got valuable experience along that DL and I expect the DL to be much better. Unlike the OL the DL can and usually does make or break a D. Whereas skill position players and solid QB play can hide a lot of the flaws if an OL. Again, I expect the D to be much better bc of our inevitably (can't be much worse) improved DL. You also keep asking who is going to be our All-CUSA player on D. I don't know in what capacity, but someone on the DL will be All-CUSA. Could be Combs, Wallace, Johnson, Polk, Taaulo, etc. but someone will be. GMG

GOMG2013 and I have talked about it on here before, but a lot of people have said how bad our defensive line played last year and how they "kept getting blown off the ball". If you really watched them play in between the lines, they weren't that bad and we were definitely weaker at linebacker, especially outside of Akunne. Defensive line was not a strength, or a unit we could lean on to get us CUSA wins, but they were not an awful unit. Lacked an all-CUSA guy, which the chances of that happening this year are fairly high as well.

We're also losing our two best 3-down defensive linemen in Alex Lincoln and Daryl Mason. Simply naming names and saying "I don't know in what capacity, but someone on the DL will be All-CUSA" isn't exactly unbiased evidence that shows there may be legitimate reason to expect an all-CUSA season out of someone. I could see solid contributions from all these guys too. But at some point you need more than that.

Again, it can happen but it's going to take someone bucking the trend and having a season that no one really saw coming. If it happens, then great. But the odds are not good and when you play against the odds enough, you'll get burned. We saw that last year when we tried to win games with a lot of players who were not highly recruited out of high school or we were their only offer. Because of that, we can't prepare this offense for a bus-driver type approach and think that'll be enough to get us to a bowl like it did in 2013.

[GreenMachine]

I think the D will be improved. The DL was pressing the entire D into a big liability all season. I think with the experience that Wallace gained will go a long way. I also think Tillman Johnson is going to be a really good player. Tauualo has a redshirt year under his belt and I expect him to be a big contributor. A lot of players got valuable experience along that DL and I expect the DL to be much better. Unlike the OL the DL can and usually does make or break a D. Whereas skill position players and solid QB play can hide a lot of the flaws if an OL. Again, I expect the D to be much better bc of our inevitably (can't be much worse) improved DL. You also keep asking who is going to be our All-CUSA player on D. I don't know in what capacity, but someone on the DL will be All-CUSA. Could be Combs, Wallace, Johnson, Polk, Taaulo, etc. but someone will be. GMG

what do you think about Flusche from Muenster? How is he progressing in D1 after playing 1a high school football?

[UNTLifer]

I could argue that we had the same questions entering the 2013 season and look at what that team accomplished. My biggest concern is replacing the years of experience on the OL. True, they didn't play to expectations last year, but that is a lot of starts to replace.

[Aldo]

Good point. Yes I'd probably say my concerns going into spring would rank as follows:

1. OL

2. LB

3. DB

I know our discussion has been how our middle-of-the-pack D could be improved this season and potentially prop up McNulty to push us into closer games, but w/out an o-line to improve our rush yds/attempt and our 3rd down conversions, I guess it's a moot point.

[BillySee58]

I could argue that we had the same questions entering the 2013 season and look at what that team accomplished. My biggest concern is replacing the years of experience on the OL. True, they didn't play to expectations last year, but that is a lot of starts to replace.

You could argue it, but like I've said, I would counter that argument by saying we had 3 players on defense who were primed for all-CUSA years. Which allowed us to lean on that defense, as well as a good group of starters around those 3.

Aaron Bellazin was second on the team in sacks with 5 the year before in 2012, and started about half the games, and was probably second on the team in snaps at defensive end. He was also a highly recruited high school player ("A" recruit) so he had the size and talent. Zach Orr was obviously coming off two straight seasons as our leading tackler and captain and was a highly recruited player as well ("B+") with multiple CUSA offers. And Marcus Trice at that point had a year of starting experience under his belt, and proved he could make plays in 2012, despite not having a great year. He was also an "A+" recruit coming out of high school, so clearly the talent was there. Once he had the experience under his belt he was able to make the plays he showed he could make in 2012, but with more consistency.

We just don't anyone on this defense who has those qualifications heading into 2015 that those guys did heading into 2013. Hoping that these guys beat the odds and having it be a pleasant surprise if it happens is one thing. But expecting it (i.e. choosing to go conservative on offense and lean on the defense to win us games like in 2013) is very dangerous. Which is why I think we need to prep this offense to be one that can win games, and not just not lose games.

[UNT90]

Good point. Yes I'd probably say my concerns going into spring would rank as follows:

1. OL

2. LB

3. DB

I know our discussion has been how our middle-of-the-pack D could be improved this season and potentially prop up McNulty to push us into closer games, but w/out an o-line to improve our rush yds/attempt and our 3rd down conversions, I guess it's a moot point.

Funny, my top three are:

1. QB

2. QB

3. QB

The way we answer these three very important questions will determine how we do this season.

Edited February 18, 2015 by UNT90

[Aldo]

I didn't put QB on the list because it's under "I know what I know". My concerns are filed under "I don't know what I don't know".

In regards to 2013, it was a seminal year that I don't think we will see any time soon with this roster.

[UNTLifer]

We could have Andrew Luck back there and he's not doing anything without an OL.

[UNT90]

We could have the best offensive line in school history and the passing game would still suck with the QBs we had last year.

We know the returning QBs are a weakness. We don't know how the OL will work out.

[UNTLifer]

Chicken or the egg.