'15 JUCO DL Jareid Combs (Iowa)

GrayEagle · January 24, 2015

Billy, I think that this is a big step in the right direction. However, I believe that both recruiting ratings and offers should be considered in the rating.

For recruiting ratings I would use the composite rating on 247 Sports. They attempt to compute a number similar to their own for the major recruiting services. That takes out the highs and lows. The downside would be that sometimes only one has rated the player so that must become the mark. If none of the majors has given a rating then you should rate the recruit based on the nearest matching information of one that has been rated. You know enough about recruits that your judgment would be respected. You should also be free to raise or lower those with only one rating using your judgment as to whether that figure is overrated or underrated.

Your figure for offers seems to be spot on. I do believe, however, that sometimes the number of offers is compromised by early commitments. As an example, I have no doubt that Ashton Preston would have several more offers if he were still uncommitted. Again, you should have the leeway to adjust your rating based on that provision. Average the two (unweighted or weighted) to arrive at your final number.

Obviously, it's your call as to whether you use a letter or number system but a number system would allow comparison against the other recruiting services after modification by 247. Still, I would be far less inclined to even look at the other ratings if you are, in essence, doing that for us.

Lest I forget...great job in your recruiting analysis and information.

Edited January 24, 2015 by GrayEagle

NT03 · January 24, 2015

Fun Fact - not 1 starter in the Super Bowl was a 5 star recruit

BillySee58 · January 24, 2015

Billy, I think that this is a big step in the right direction. However, I believe that both recruiting ratings and offers should be considered in the rating.

For recruiting ratings I would use the composite rating on 247 Sports. They attempt to compute a number similar to their own for the major recruiting services. That takes out the highs and lows. The downside would be that sometimes only one has rated the player so that must become the mark. If none of the majors has given a rating then you should rate the recruit based on the nearest matching information of one that has been rated. You know enough about recruits that your judgment would be respected. You should also be free to raise or lower those with only one rating using your judgment as to whether that figure is overrated or underrated.

Your figure for offers seems to be spot on. I do believe, however, that sometimes the number of offers is compromised by early commitments. As an example, I have no doubt that Ashton Preston would have several more offers if he were still uncommitted. Again, you should have the leeway to adjust your rating based on that provision. Average the two (unweighted or weighted) to arrive at your final number.

Obviously, it's your call as to whether you use a letter or number system but a number system would allow comparison against the other recruiting services after modification by 247. Still, I would be far less inclined to even look at the other ratings if you are, in essence, doing that for us.

Lest I forget...great job in your recruiting analysis and information.

I am familiar with 247's composite rankings. I do agree that, as far as opinionated ratings go, it is the best. Here's my post in Cody Wheeler's thread, regarding how our commits don't continually get reevaluated through signing day like the commits of other schools who have pay sites and subsites with the major recruiting websites will get reevaluated and get rating bumps.

Since committing to Texas Tech, Wheeler has picked up a 3-star rating on both Scout and ESPN. Which, again, is another example of why UNT fans need to pay much, much more attention to our recruits' and commits' offer lists.
Wheeler absolutely deserves to be a low 3-star and high 2-star (depending on the site). He was that caliber player before Tech offered. The thing is, our commits don't get the time of day when it comes to getting rating bumps and reevaluated, or sometimes even seriously evaluated the first time. We don't have subsites on the major recruiting websites and we don't have subscribers pestering the site analysts for our commits to get another evaluation and rating. Texas Tech does. Rivals didn't even bother to make Wheeler a profile until Tech became a serious possibility. The other sites either didn't rate Wheeler or gave him an initial rating which they didn't bother to reevaluate since he was just committed to us.
Usually offer lists and star ratings do equal out pretty well. But star ratings are still secondary to offer lists when it comes to being the best predictor of a kids' ability to be a good D1 player, and show how good a job a school is doing recruiting against other schools.

I semi disagree with the point you make about early commits not getting more offers because of committing early. They could get more offers, but the thing is, our "early" commits aren't committing that early. The evaluation period starts, essentially, after National Signing Day for the previous class. February through June are the big months where the majority of offers are given out. Preston committed in July and was one of our last high school players offered during the evaluation period. He did have a chance to go through the entire evaluation period. Schools did have time to evaluate him and decide whether or not to offer.

Which is my point. Even our "early" commits are still committing late enough where they are going through the evaluation period uncommitted. They're still giving other schools the entire evaluation period to offer them.

Edited January 24, 2015 by BillySee58

greenminer · January 24, 2015

Fun Fact - not 1 starter in the Super Bowl was a 5 star recruit

That's kinda interesting. Where did you find that tidbit?

Harry · January 24, 2015

Fun Fact - not 1 starter in the Super Bowl was a 5 star recruit

Pretty neat stat indeed!

GreenFlag · January 24, 2015

Pretty neat stat indeed!

But they had an impressive list of offers.

Billy, have you done a ranking of CUSA teams past classes? Now that would be interesting. I do think you are on to something.

NT03 · January 24, 2015

Pitt just got a commit from a JUCO DE. Hopefully we can stratch them off the list. Combs is a must get IMO!!

BillySee58 · January 24, 2015

But they had an impressive list of offers.
Billy, have you done a ranking of CUSA teams past classes? Now that would be interesting. I do think you are on to something.

Yeah, the thing you have to take into account with talking about NFL players and what they were as recruits is that there are thousands of 2-stars and unrated kids playing college football, while there are only about 30 5-stars a year. So, just by mass numbers, there are going to be more of those guys drafted and on NFL teams. But there's a much higher percentage of 5-stars making it than 4-stars, higher percentage of 4-stars than 3-stars, etc.

The rating system I've made is a little more tailored for us, more than any CUSA school. Rice and UTSA as well, maybe UTEP but their recruiting demographic is different being way out in El Paso. Take schools like WKU and MTSU for example. The area they recruit in has more FCS schools than FBS schools. In Texas we have 12 FBS schools. So there are more schools to offer kids over here. As opposed to a recruit in Nashville. Offer lists will look different for kids in different states than Texas.

Pitt just got a commit from a JUCO DE. Hopefully we can stratch them off the list. Combs is a must get IMO!!

Awesome! The fact that we were still his leader after he left the Cincinnati visit was a great sign for us. Hopefully KP finishes strong with Combs. Edited January 24, 2015 by BillySee58

FirefightnRick · January 25, 2015

Fun Fact - not 1 starter in the Super Bowl was a 5 star recruit

Which is why I just don't take a ton of stock into the ratings and recruiting services, and I don't buy DM's excuse about recruiting at North Texas.

Non of our current NFL guys were all world players. They were all world at heart, determination and fearlessness. And the good evaluators know how to find them and bring them in.

Rick

Brett Vito · January 26, 2015

MGB update: UNT coaches visit as decision looms

http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2015/01/monday-afternoon-recruiting-notes-combs-update.html/

Harry · January 26, 2015

Wow not good that it is Memphis. They could spell trouble for us. I wonder if Dickey is involved.

MeanGreenTexan · January 26, 2015

Wow not good that it is Memphis. They could spell trouble for us. I wonder if Dickey is involved.

Dickey can't really say much about anything (truthfully) at NT anymore. Things have drastically changed since he was here.

BillySee58 · January 26, 2015

About 3 spots left now. We got a JUCO CB and a high school receiver. Those were the two positions we were deadset on adding. Hopefully one of the remaining spots is Combs. After that I'd like to add Watson, then maybe the JUCO OT Thomas. Would be a decent finish for us.

Harry · January 26, 2015

Dickey can't really say much about anything (truthfully) at NT anymore. Things have drastically changed since he was here.

Not insinuating he would ever say anything negative -- he loved the place and the potential we have... just wonder if he is who is recruiting the kid for Memphis. Heck, it could be him or even Ryan Walters for that matter who was here just last year...

Mean Green 93-98 · January 26, 2015

I'm guessing that Memphis is not a major threat at this point. He is scheduled to take his official to Memphis this next weekend, and yet he says he will make a decision tomorrow. While not decisive, that and pretty much everything he's said leans UNT's way.

Edited January 26, 2015 by Mean Green 93-98

MEANGREENCOACH2 · January 26, 2015

Making his decision tomorrow is great but still visiting their campus has me worried.

Harry · January 26, 2015

Memphis already has a commit from a defensive end in Dallas named Khalil Johnson (Dallas Kimball). Johnson is visiting Memphis this weekend. Memphis has Combs coming in on the 30th...

Get this, with Johnson, Memphis also has defensive end commits from the following:

Demarco Montgomery East Miss CC (signed)

John McDougle Memphis (committed)

Emmanuel Cooper Arkadelphia Ark (committed)

Peyton Jones Memphis

That is 5 defensive ends in one class! And they still want one more. If I was UNT I would be playing the playing time card big time!

TheReal_jayD · January 26, 2015

Commits to UNT per vito

Harry · January 26, 2015

Commits to UNT per vito

That's a real nice pickup. Glad to hear of this.

Harry · January 26, 2015

Just added him to our official commit list which is up to 23 now. Nice to see he has 3 years to play 2.

Mean Green 93-98 · January 26, 2015

Great news! He shows as a commit on Rivals as well.

It sure is a JUCO-heavy class, but I guess you take the best talent where you find it.

BillySee58 · January 27, 2015

Awesome! Hope he just cancels the Memphis visit altogether. Great job by Mac and especially by KP! I think he starts next year

Edited January 27, 2015 by BillySee58

Ben Gooding · January 27, 2015

This is a good get that I can applaud. Clap, clap,

clap, clap, clap.

Now go flip that guy that's trying to go to El Paso.

GMG.

UNT90 · January 27, 2015

Awesome! Hope he just cancels the Memphis visit altogether. Great job by Mac and especially by KP! I think he starts next year

Billy, do you know how many JUCOs we have signed compared to how many from the 2012 class are you longer with the team?

It would be interesting to see if we are simply making up for a bad class or if we have decided to rely heavier on JUCOs.

BillySee58 · January 27, 2015

Billy, do you know how many JUCOs we have signed compared to how many from the 2012 class are you longer with the team?
It would be interesting to see if we are simply making up for a bad class or if we have decided to rely heavier on JUCOs.

Yeah, it is. We had 21 high school signings, I believe, and 11 are gone. I talk about offer lists all the time, but that class may have had the least offers per signing of any of Coach Mccarney's classes, and that's before a lot of them started leaving. I think 10 didn't have any other FBS offers. We also had a decently high number of defections in the 2011 class (would be redshirt seniors this year), and the 2013 class was not a big high school class either.

We just haven't gotten very much production out of the 2012 guys. Most of them still have two years left, as redshirt juniors, but it's pretty obvious that if that class had panned out the way you would hope we wouldn't be needing to sign this many JUCOs heading into year 5. Hopefully they take it personally this spring and don't let the new guys come in and take all the spots.