McCarney’s candid remarks about the situation at UNT

[Eagle1855]

I could cite coach after coach that signed on with historically bad programs and turned the program around. I dont think it would do any good because our fan base is OK with bad to mediocre football.

No, please do. We want to learn. We want to be better as fans and as a football team. Tell us.

[Ben Gooding]

Nope. Do your research and see for yourself.

One coach instantly comes to mind...

His first HC gig he took a program that had previously went 33-64 the previous 10 years. He came in, for only 3 seasons, but went 20-13 and won their first and only conference championship in his final year.

In his second HC job the program went 76-38-3 (not bad). But he came in and in his 12 year he went 122-27-1. Accolades are endless.

The 10 years before his hiring this team went 49-65. Since he has taken over in 2005 he is 80-42 at the same school. This is his 3rd and current HC job.

Point is, winners win and losers don't. Where a given coach is at is just an excuse. 2/3 of these programs were horrible before his hiring and the other was a middle of the pack school for basically their entire existence. He took 3 relatively bad teams and turned them all into extremely competitive football teams. Granted this guy is a shoe in HOF, but this is just the first coach to come to mind.

Who's #1 & 3 in the country right now? And #3 team has a former HS coach. Both teams historically pitiful. Granted there hasn't been stability established, but you're getting the point.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Ben Gooding

[CMJ]

Nope. Do your research and see for yourself.

One coach instantly comes to mind...

His first HC gig he took a program that had previously went 33-64 the previous 10 years. He came in, for only 3 seasons, but went 20-13 and won their first and only conference championship in his final year.

In his second HC job the program went 76-38-3 (not bad). But he came in and in his 12 year he went 122-27-1. Accolades are endless.

The 10 years before his hiring this team went 49-65. Since he has taken over in 2005 he is 80-42 at the same school. This is his 3rd and current HC job.

Point is, winners win and losers don't. Where a given coach is at is just an excuse. 2/3 of these programs were horrible before his hiring and the other was a middle of the pack school for basically their entire existence. He took 3 relatively bad teams and turned them all into extremely competitive football teams. Granted this guy is a shoe in HOF, but this is just the first coach to come to mind.

Who's #1 & 3 in the country right now? And #3 team has a former HS coach. Both teams historically pitiful. Granted there hasn't been stability established, but you're getting the point.

I'm guessing you're referring to Steve Spurrier. Technically he didn't win Duke's only league title. It was their first in over 25 years though.

Edited October 17, 2014 by CMJ

[CMJ]

Ok? 80's football is not quite the same as football in 2014. Also, JJ is not Nick Saban.

You're right....Jimmy Johnson won a national title in college and won in the NFL. Saban only proved he can win in college.

I'm not saying he's a better coach than Saban per se, but you're the one who implied he wasn't. I just had to offer the counter argument.

[CMJ]

I could cite coach after coach that signed on with historically bad programs and turned the program around. I dont think it would do any good because our fan base is OK with bad to mediocre football.

What's the time period on this? Meaning, if a coach has a great initial turnaround, but gets hired away, does he get credit for a turnaround? Because there's no way to really measure if he was having a flash in the pan season or was setting up for sustained success.

If sustained success is the key, I'd say Bill Snyder, Steve Spurrier, and maybe Frank Beamer are all that come to mind.

Edited October 17, 2014 by CMJ

[Got5onIt]

1) Nick is a damn fine coach.

2) ISU is tough. No way to tell if pre-LSU Saban would have done well.

It's a bit of an empty conversation: there's just no way to tell. The only thing we know is that Mac has amazing skins on the wall as an assistant/coordinator, but has elected as a HC to do really really tough gigs, and it shows in his overall HC record.

This is why I like Mac so much. He was willing to take on tough challenges and dig programs out of the college football abyss. My problem with Mac is that I think he severely underestimated how tough it was going to be here. He sees what we see, big public university with a new stadium, in the heart of a recruiting hotbed, so his instant thinking is "hell yeah NT can be turned into a winner! ". Year 4 and we're looking at a potential repeat of years 1 & 2.....

[UNT90]

Who's #1 & 3 in the country right now? And #3 team has a former HS coach. Both teams historically pitiful. Granted there hasn't been stability established, but you're getting the point.

This probably your best point. Mississippi St. IS the Iowa St. of the SEC. They are the #2 school in a state where the #1 school is historically below average.

When did we hear from both The Buick and Coach Mac that UNT was a hard place to recruit? When both were having down seasons. Notice how hey never say this when they are winning?

It's excuse making, and quite frankly, I thought Mac was better/different than that. I think this should send a huge alarm to the alumni that this may not be the right guy.

[Eagle1855]

This probably your best point. Mississippi St. IS the Iowa St. of the SEC.

Hardly. While winning on their present scale is novel, winning is far from a new adventure for Mississippi State:

SEC Champions 1941

SEC West Champions 1998

Final AP Poll Ranking 1940, 1941, 1942, 1957, 1974, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2010

Final Coaches Poll Ranking 1963, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2010

Bowl Victories* 1911, 1940, 1963, 1974, 1981, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013

Bowl Appearances* 1911, 1936, 1940, 1963, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

Iowa State would trade every record they have to hold that kind of trophy case. As would we.

Ole Miss? They've been to 30-something bowl games and have players in the HOF and claim 3 national titles. That's hardly a fair comparison to the suck-hole that is Iowa State football

Iowa State has been to 12 bowl games -- 8 of which came in the last 15 years (all 8 of which occured after the day Dan McCarney was hired -- and yes, I realize there are now more bowl games than ever). If you feel you must compare Iowa State to an SEC program, you make want look further north, into the blue hills of the bourbon state at a mostly-basketball school named Kentucky. Their suck has been consistent, on par with that of Iowa State.

I don't really care if McCarney is the long-term solution or not and I'm not defending his employment here. But the notion the guy is nothing more than Dickey 2.0 is absurd.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Eagle1855

[JesseMartin]

I think this should send a huge alarm to the alumni that this may not be the right guy.

Even if you're right...if that alarm goes out to the alumni, then what?

UNT will ignore us unless somebody dumps 7 figures into the program. Even if a collective group has a million between them with a shared mentality, really, when has anyone other than a huge donor (who is usually either a current, former, or soon-to-be Regent) been listened to?

[Eagle1855]

Even if you're right...if that alarm goes out to the alumni, then what?

UNT will ignore us unless somebody dumps 7 figures into the program. Even if a collective group has a million between them with a shared mentality, really, when has anyone other than a huge donor (who is usually either a current, former, or soon-to-be Regent) been listened to?

It's a money game. It has been for a while and it appears it always will be.

As we've said in many other posts, we were late to the party related to investment in the program. Had we done all this before, during, or immediately after the wins in the SBC, the subsequent decade might have looked different. It might have forever altered our course. Or it might not have; who knows. But you get the feeling a window of opportunity opened and we weren't ready. And then it closed -- possibly for good. And thats okay: Tulsa, UH, Boise and many others also got left out, too.

So we can endeavor to be the best of the rest. But, honestly, I don't think this fanbase cares enough to make it happen. We still haven't sold out the stadium -- not even to OPEN it against a notable regional opponent -- at a school of ~35k with 200k+ alum in the area alone.

I will continue to support the program with attendance and with money because my time at UNT is a source of great pride. I am proud of my time there and support the programs related to it just the same. But I've largely abandoned this notion that UNT is this sleeping giant of a program that will inevitably someday make headlines like Boise -- or even UH. Not because it's not possible. Not because we're not in a great position to do so. But because the one missing component is the give a sh*t factor -- and it seems most people who hang a UNT degree on their wall simply don't have it.

Is it a chicken/egg situation? Do people not care because the admin didn't care? Or did the admin not care because it didn't think the people cared?

Maybe the next coach will be a million-dollar hire that the shoulder-shrugging Green can't ignore. Or maybe next year Coach Mac and crew pull a rabbit out of the hat and knock out 10+ wins and a marquee win on the road. Something significant has to happen. And in this landscape, with a surging UTSA program and a Texas State program that is on the rise, it feels like it needs to happen sooner than later.

[VideoEagle]

I could cite coach after coach that signed on with historically bad programs and turned the program around. I dont think it would do any good because our fan base is OK with bad to mediocre football.

Really! I'll need to dig out the link to an actual study published a few years back on "hitting the reset button with coaches." For all of FBS and before that 1a football in over a ten year period, they studied the results after a coaching change. Programs with losing records only improved the next two years roughly 25% of the time. Less than 10% improved in one year. Most turn arounds take four years. There are exceptions, but they are statistically rare. I don't remember the exact percentages, but those are close.

I'm having a hard time with the link on my iPad, but http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00929.x/full . It's a peer reviewed study so if you are going to disagree with the results I expect another study, not just personal analysis. The fact is, firing the head coach only rarely improves a teams record sooner that four years.

[Ben Gooding]

James Franklin to name another. Wherever he goes he wins.

[Ben Gooding]

That study is on a large scale FBS level. A lot of losers to consider in that broad of a sample so of course the stats are going to lean to fit your argument. Winners win. No matter where.

[Stan R]

This probably your best point. Mississippi St. IS the Iowa St. of the SEC. They are the #2 school in a state where the #1 school is historically below average.

When did we hear from both The Buick and Coach Mac that UNT was a hard place to recruit? When both were having down seasons. Notice how hey never say this when they are winning?

It's excuse making, and quite frankly, I thought Mac was better/different than that. I think this should send a huge alarm to the alumni that this may not be the right guy.

To me this sends a red flag that he isn't liking something else about his situation, really unrelated to recruiting. Is it fan support? Methinks it is. I think he had a different opinion on how fast the fans would turn around after one season and he isn't seeing it and he's losing his motivation. Maybe he's feeling his age too? Anyway I agree with you that this is a red flag because it smacks of an attitude turnaround for the worse at the top.

That attitude cascades down from the top, in every organization on the planet. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see if things improve.

[VideoEagle]

That study is on a large scale FBS level. A lot of losers to consider in that broad of a sample so of course the stats are going to lean to fit your argument. Winners win. No matter where.

Dude, I can name hundreds of Lotto Texas winners, but I'm not going to bet my retirement on the lottery and I doubt you will either! Statistically it just doesn't work!

[hickoryhouse]

That study is on a large scale FBS level. A lot of losers to consider in that broad of a sample so of course the stats are going to lean to fit your argument. Winners win. No matter where.

Wasn't Todd Dodge a BIG winner in the high school ranks? He didn't win here.

[Eagle1855]

James Franklin to name another. Wherever he goes he wins.

You've named a couple coaches over a period of a few decades that have managed to turn around a program (and really went out on a limb saying Nick Saban could win at Iowa State).

There are over 120 schools that play Division 1 football. Which means at any given time, there are at least that many coaches. And each of those programs has likely had at least 4 coaches in the past few decades. Assuming there's some overlap, that's a sample size that's likely well over 400 coaches. You've named just a couple that have managed to win "against the odds" in that time period.

I'm not sure what your point is. I'm not sure you even know what your point is, other than to take a contrarian position without citing any actual figures, while telling us to "go look it up for ourselves." It's not my point to support, so I'll pass.

[DirtySavage]

Just win out and this will all go away.....

[untjim1995]

This probably your best point. Mississippi St. IS the Iowa St. of the SEC. They are the #2 school in a state where the #1 school is historically below average.

When did we hear from both The Buick and Coach Mac that UNT was a hard place to recruit? When both were having down seasons. Notice how hey never say this when they are winning?

It's excuse making, and quite frankly, I thought Mac was better/different than that. I think this should send a huge alarm to the alumni that this may not be the right guy.

To me, if Dan McCarney is saying this stuff in his 4th year here, it should send a huge alarm to all of us that somehow still care about this program that there may not EVER be the right guy here...there may just be too much to overcome here to be a consistent winner at the FBS level.

I know some will point to the Dickey years that we won, but we had three winning seasons in a row, and the last one in 2004, we only beat the SBC teams we played--we even lost to FAU at home when they weren't even in the conference yet that year. So, to me, the 2002 and 2003 teams, are the only time I have seen a consistent winner that was able to play with almost anybody. Other than those two years and last season, the other years have been mediocre to oh-my-gawd-this-is-how-my-alma-mater-plays-football bad.

I'll always follow this program because they are mine. But I always tell my friends and co-workers that my favorite team doesn't play football at the same level as their favorite P5 program, that the field is too tilted to their advantage. My team plays at the G5 level, against teams that we should be able to compete with, UAB game this past weekend notwithstanding. But I don't believe that there is anything from the past or present that makes me believe it is anything but hard to coach here--from recruiting players, building a fanbase, and funding the program, nothing about that has been anything but difficult. And I would bet a large sum of money that Coach Mac never thought this job could prove to still be this hard after almost 4 years of being here, especially coming after a 9 win season and a bowl win in front of 40k UNT fans. Frankly, I didn't think it would be, either, which is why this all worries me as much as it now does.

[UNT90]

To me, if Dan McCarney is saying this stuff in his 4th year here, it should send a huge alarm to all of us that somehow still care about this program that there may not EVER be the right guy here...there may just be too much to overcome here to be a consistent winner at the FBS level.

I know some will point to the Dickey years that we won, but we had three winning seasons in a row, and the last one in 2004, we only beat the SBC teams we played--we even lost to FAU at home when they weren't even in the conference yet that year. So, to me, the 2002 and 2003 teams, are the only time I have seen a consistent winner that was able to play with almost anybody. Other than those two years and last season, the other years have been mediocre to oh-my-gawd-this-is-how-my-alma-mater-plays-football bad.

I'll always follow this program because they are mine. But I always tell my friends and co-workers that my favorite team doesn't play football at the same level as their favorite P5 program, that the field is too tilted to their advantage. My team plays at the G5 level, against teams that we should be able to compete with, UAB game this past weekend notwithstanding. But I don't believe that there is anything from the past or present that makes me believe it is anything but hard to coach here--from recruiting players, building a fanbase, and funding the program, nothing about that has been anything but difficult. And I would bet a large sum of money that Coach Mac never thought this job could prove to still be this hard after almost 4 years of being here, especially coming after a 9 win season and a bowl win in front of 40k UNT fans. Frankly, I didn't think it would be, either, which is why this all worries me as much as it now does.

Remember this was only said after people started questioning Mac's recruiting. It is excuse making, plain and simple.

There is no reason that this program cannot be a consistent winner in CUSA. If Mac can't recruit here, he is simply the wrong person for the job.

That is the uncomfortable reality.

[Ben Gooding]

You've named a couple coaches over a period of a few decades that have managed to turn around a program (and really went out on a limb saying Nick Saban could win at Iowa State).

There are over 120 schools that play Division 1 football. Which means at any given time, there are at least that many coaches. And each of those programs has likely had at least 4 coaches in the past few decades. Assuming there's some overlap, that's a sample size that's likely well over 400 coaches. You've named just a couple that have managed to win "against the odds" in that time period.

I'm not sure what your point is. I'm not sure you even know what your point is, other than to take a contrarian position without citing any actual figures, while telling us to "go look it up for ourselves." It's not my point to support, so I'll pass.

I citied the only figure you need. Winners win (period). My point is to squash all this BS crying of it's hard to recruit/win here. I am sure Billy could pull up some recruiting classes over the last 4 years at MAC, MWC, CUSA and even Sun Belt schools that are crushing us on the recruiting trail but are against even bigger odds.

[MeanGreenHoops]

To me this sends a red flag that he isn't liking something else about his situation, really unrelated to recruiting. Is it fan support? Methinks it is. I think he had a different opinion on how fast the fans would turn around after one season and he isn't seeing it and he's losing his motivation. Maybe he's feeling his age too? Anyway I agree with you that this is a red flag because it smacks of an attitude turnaround for the worse at the top.

That attitude cascades down from the top, in every organization on the planet. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see if things improve.

I think you're right. Look Mac didn't know anything about this program when he took it over. He only knew what he was told during the interview period. I'm sure RV and Pohl told him how much had changed recently, how attendance was improving and we were so ready for a winner to support. He took that (which I've heard him say) and looked at Texas and though, man I could do that and they'll be so thankful. Heck there's how ever many 100K alums in the area.

Like a lot of jobs, once you've been there awhile, you realize things aren't going to change or aren't likely to change without major shifts from the highest level, and those are unlikely to occur.

[untjim1995]

Remember this was only said after people started questioning Mac's recruiting. It is excuse making, plain and simple.

There is no reason that this program cannot be a consistent winner in CUSA. If Mac can't recruit here, he is simply the wrong person for the job.

That is the uncomfortable reality.

My point is this--even if we compete for CUSA titles (like last year), our recruiting can still suck because we may have to just depend on development here versus getting in recruits who can contribute right away at a higher level than "oh he did awesome against Nicholls State as a sophomore, so I bet he's the QB for the future here for sure." Not that you personally think that, because I know you don't, but there is just not much here on this roster that is developed talent. And we cannot take away from the fact that CUSA today is mostly the SBC 2.0.

I will say this: I thought we had a fully developed and talented OLine, but they have sucked something fierce so far, in my opinion, which also hurts McCarney's coaching directly. This was supposed to be the one area he was damn near a coaching genius at, so it would attract better linemen prospects in HS. I say this because he has a lot of blame in this mess, too, not just the school and its warts that don't seem to get removed completely (or at all). But I do think that his positivity is starting to get dulled by the realities he faces here.

I think the uncomfortable reality here isn't that Mac might not be there right guy here--it may be that there is no right guy who can make it succeed here for the long-term.

[Ben Gooding]

There's a story behind not having almost an entire signing class just not here. Of those guys we lost some of the most highly touted guys Mac has brought in. It'd be great to find out what happened there.

Maybe the focus in recruiting needs to be on getting the overall best available players while keeping needs in mind, instead of only going directly after needs while settling with what we can get. The overall talent has to be elevated, maybe this approach could work. That style of recruiting is kind of what Ron Zook did at Florida and then at Illinois. He wasn't a great coach, but he brought boatloads of talent to both schools.

[Cerebus]

Just win out and this will all go away.....

It's happened before, right?