So the AAC commish was quoted in an article I just posted as stating he KNOWS that some of his AAC schools will leave:
“I’ve been talking to the (athletic directors) and the president of the schools that might leave, and it looks like some of them will."
So, whether the AAC loses 2 or 3 (assuming BYU is one of the 4)... you do have scenarios that could play into UNT being involved.
I think most agree Houston will get in. If that happens, you leave SMU on an island in Texas. I just do not think SMU wants that and they wield a LOT of power in the AAC. If they went with that it would be used against them in recruiting.
C-USA for all its faults still can boast that we have 4 schools in Texas (UNT, UTEP, UTSA and Rice).
So assuming AAC would not leave SMU on an island, who would they take? They have two UT system schools, one in a good market (San Antonio) and another with good basketball in the hinterlands. Neither bring AAC level budgets. Rice is a great academic school which would immediately replace the Houston market but is not the most attractive from a TV contract standpoint. Rice also has a billion dollar endowment but won't spend it on sports so their budget is not AAC level either. And then you have poor ole UNT who is in the same market as SMU and on the other side of the tracks.
My thinking is, with the past relationships Rice has with SMU, Tulsa and Tulane, they would have to be the favorite choice as a travel partner for SMU in Texas.