Mike Jackson

I really don’t think that will happen unless big decision makers forget the lesson the decline of boxing taught them. You can only sell false hope to the bottom half of the top 80 programs by revenue so long. I say 80 because I believe at least half of FBS programs won’t be viable for financially to continue to compete with the new FBS. If if schools like Stanford drop down to FCS or kill football altogether it could get really bad. These huge schools are trying to drop conference “dead weight” schools but they hurt the middle tier programs. If you aren’t elite but in the 2 mega conferences non-conference games are the fun games for your fans. They don’t have the product to support pay per view without the collective taking a huge financial bath. The Longhorns Network is basically pay per view and ESPN lost money on it. (Even forcing it into the sports packages of people who didn’t want the channel). Either way I am watching less over the long haul. The year before Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M left the drama of the bad blood made me watch more. But once they settled into the SEC & Big 10 and the matchups were no longer brand new I watched considerably less.

I really hope I am wrong but I see this as the beginning of the end of CFB as we know and love it. You just can't march the money train backwards or employ real revenue sharing that makes the other USA Sports Leagues successful. Either these new media rights deals will be wildly profitable for the outlets and they will subsequently have to pay the players or they will expand the playoff to 16 with a smaller field of teams playing at the FBS level. The regular season product will be deluded even more. In 2032 the networks will have the data to figure out the viability of these super conference media rights deals and I don't think the numbers will be as good as they hope for. There will be an uptick for the SEC at least early on if Texas and OU are good. But the reality of the viewership numbers of UCLA & USC games versus all those middle tier Big 10 teams looking just like the viewership numbers of those LA teams versus the all the middle and lower tier Pac 12 teams they play now.

Here is a summary why I think this the beginning of the end. The leadership can't see past the money carrot in front of their noses right now. That quote unfortunately is indicative of how the leadership is not analyzing CFB markets imo. Otherwise they wouldn't be making some of the moves they are making. Northeast coast people have the least interest in College Football. Otherwise Syracuse and Pitt would have been gobbled up by the Big 10 with Penn State. I don't recall Rutgers ever being good except for a very brief stint and even then the increase revenue that winning did wasn't enough to retain hot coaches. The viewership for these the markets they are "adding" are the same. You really think USC football fans weren't watching Ohio State vs (Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Penn State) when both teams are ranked? I believe they are growing the pie less that they will be slicing it up. However the decline won't show up until the ink on these deals are long dried. There will be a financial reckoning the next time these media rights deal are negotiated. Yes they are getting the broadcast rights to a few more "good media" games. But they are going to get a lot of turds for instance UCLA vs (all the midtier and lower Big 10 teams) will be turds rating wise. Advertisers will see those rating figures and balk at the commercial placement fee. I think you are halfway correct. They are killing this goose with greed imo. I don't know how the media outlets will view a drastic reorganization after the diminished returns they will experience halfway through these new rights contracts. They are either going to end up paying these players outright and separating from the NCAA or taking a step back. College football is a regional sport and they refuse to analyze and organize it that way. Strong regional interest drives national interest not the reverse. People outside of Texas and Oklahoma want to watch the Red River Shootout because of the passion of the local fans making it exciting. Excitement means investment in the programs in talent, facilities and money. All those things are built upon history. So the SEC addition of UT and OU make sense. These secondary moves just don't imo. The Big 10 adding UCLA vs USC might cost them the Thanksgiving weekend rivalry games if they have a conference semi-final. As I am writing this I am writing this I am listening to Colin Cowherd explain how Iowa, and Wisconsin fan are going to fill up the LA stadiums for a regular season Big 10 game. I think that is comically incorrect especially if those teams roll into the LA unranked or if USC is bad. The numbers will be even worse for UCLA games versus those teams. Also I am wondering how hard Fox will negotiate with the Big 10. It isn't like there another big entity that can offer them the same size check and broadcast outlets. NBC Universal isn't that plays right into Notre Dame's advantage. Disney/ABC might do they really want to invest heavily in both the SEC and Big 10? Disney's balance sheet isn't rock solid and bidding too much to be the exclusive outlet for all CFB's biggest brands financially complicates pitching for NFL Sunday Ticket. You can lose money on one of those properties and survive. Colin is also citing "lack of big games" problem with CFB basing that looking at the first 2 weekends of games this season. Why are those games "small" the very schools he thinks are so valuable are scheduling G5 at home to beat up on and even if one of those G5 teams upsets that big boy school the game will be dismissed in the playoff/bowl selection process. That won't change with conference realignment.

I don't think there done with expansion especially the Big 10. And the biggest brands in the PAC 12 remain are looking to align themselves with big brands east of the Rockies. Now they could stand firm invite the best 2 programs available that make geographic sense. Also in that conference semi final week we lose a ton of tradition. We wouldn't get the Thanksgiving weekend rivarly games. And 6-8 team playoff scenerion has always made me puke. As long don't have automatic Qualifying for G5 conference winners you G5 will never get a shot. These leaders are determine ring the neck of the golden goose to get the absolute most golden eggs but they are going to choke it to death IMO.

Wardly I think it is all wishful thinking for fans of all but the 20-36 most marketable CFB brand schools. There used to be a time when P5 also-rans legitimately had a path to the national championship by winning their conference. Now with 18 to 20 team or more team conferences there is no way to eliminate subjectivity from the conference championship process unless you have a conference playoff. Can you schedule that playoff for 3 weeks in November without killing a ton of tradition? Probably not. All this expansion is happening without no consideration of the product they offered in the past compared to what the product will be in the future. Are they totally eliminating non-conference games? Even with 13 game all in conference games that will leave 5 conference rivals you play once every 5 years. The numbers are even worse the bigger the conference gets and if you allow non-conference scheduling. This utter garbage so tired of the Talking Heads on TV trying to defend/explain this as anything else than a pure money grab. I think at this point I am 100% in favor of paying these players out right. Pay them and then allow them to pay for their education to maintain their eligibility to play. No discounted tuition for out-of-state players because they should pay out of state tuition out the salary. Same thing with private institutions. The private school tuition is the private school tuition whether you are an unpaid volunteer walk-on or the 5 star QB with a 6 figure salary.. Disconnect football from the NCAA and the title IX requirements. Let’s stop all the fakery, if they’re going to kill it making it corporate stop doing it half ass and let the free market determine the viability. It will be nice for a couple of years but when 70% or more FBS programs Drop football or drop down level even mighty will feel the pain. Because when that 70% drop down you can’t have paid employees/ semi pro players, playing real amateurs without serious Litigation exposure. So then you’re left with about 20 to 35 teams in a new semi pro league. They are going to lose 50% of the viewership and therefore 50% of the revenue.

I’m listening to the Talking Heads on TV sell this nonsense to us, I am in a scorched mood. I think it’s much worse than people realize because they don’t understand college football and its appeal. Regional rivalries is the thing that sets college football apart from pro leagues. Yes no matter what the set up is when the biggest brands play each other is good for ratings. You don’t need a conference to make those things happen. But eventually alumni and fans who don’t have a great connections to these elite brand schools are going to lose interest in watching their games. So let’s take the top 25 revenue college football brands out there and put them in a conference. As passionate as college football fan as I am, I am not watching any of the games except the classic rivalries and Championship games. After all these movements are completed, and the networks start seeing the limited return on investment for all these other small brand in conference matchups they are going to adjust their next contract offerings accordingly. Is anyone really excited to see USC versus Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa and Maryland? When USC gets Back to playing at a level that it should be, they will be beating all those teams I listed 80% of the time. So what’s the appeal in watching them? There is no natural geographic rivalry. College football will not work as some kind of quasi semi-pro league without tradition propping up interest. There will always be games but very soon the only the extreme elite dominating brands will have more than 30,000 fans at their games and significant TV viewing numbers consistently. I see the bowl woeful bowl game numbers as a predictor of what the vast majority of regular season games will look like that aren’t the classic rivalies or 2 top 25 brand playing each other. Same phenomenon we saw with the expansion Of postseason conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament field. Regular season NCAA basketball might as well be dead. If you have a magical game against one of the big brands and have a decent season: “congratulations Northwestern” Ohio State, USC, Michigan or Penn State is playing in the conference championship game even if you beat one of them head to head and y’all have the same record. Now go and take your conference media rights check and go play in the corner.

No it's not just that many Athletic Departments that don't even play D1 Football are far ahead of us. We have to stop giving leadership here credit for actually trying because many of their predecessors didn't. I know my can do attitude only goes so far at work when we aren't getting the results we want. And this just in: Not only are only just trying hard (at best) it seems we are not trying smart. We have the opportunity to be the first Division 1 NCAA Gymnastics program in the entire state. Not only that but we probably have leadership experience locally that either currently at TWU's D2 program or has in the past that would jump at the opportunity to start up a D1 program. And to those wanting North Texas to jump into the field of 22 other D1 baseball programs in the state think about this; the easiest way to balance our the title 9 scholarship requirements would be a gymnastics program offsetting those new baseball scholarships. I haven't heard a single whisper of UNT starting D1 Gymnastics program.

I respectfuly disagree. I will give you Arkansas State is a step below. But to local fans I think Tulane=Tulsa=Southeren Miss. At least Southern miss had Brett Farve. Now if you are talking trips to away games vs those teams, absolutely better experience for our fan going to New Orleans area and Tulsa. But that wasn't the point being made. And most fans that travel to away are already coming to Denton regularly for games as long as we aren't playing a FCS team. We might get one conference game vs Memphis before they leave-- and based on recent conference buy out news 99% certain it is just a game fullfilling the non-conference game contract we already had. My summary is here to save you some time Comparing teams we never shared a division with ones we do now isn’t an apples vs apples comparison. if the team we “left behind” are achieving more since we left them kind a silly to tout getting them off the schedule as beneficial to attendance at Apogee any undefeated top 20 ranked G5 in a late season match up is going to ramp up the attendance at Apogee MTSU we didn't play them every year in CUSA. And I don't think it is accurate assessment to lump in UL and any other team we left behind in the Sun Belt when we moved to CUSA. And ironically UL bigger national splash after "we left them behind" Google "ragin' Cajun football ranked" Then Google "Mean Green Footall ranked" Troy vs UAB - that is a push, they are in the same state. One shutdown their program for a couple year not related to Covid the other one is Troy. WKU vs UTSA - yes UTSA is better. Also not a fair comparison because since the Sun Belt days they've been in another Divsion. So we didn't add UTSA by moving up to AAC. We "lost" WKU coming to Denton every 3 to 4 years? FIA vs South Florida - neither of them drawing Mean Green fans Apogee in their infrequent visits. South Florida unquestionably the better brand but only for TV audience imo. “North Texas vs South Florida” has a nice symmetrical sound to it. USA (assuming you mean South Alabama) vs Tulsa. Well I don’t think that we were ever looking at being in a division with South Alabama and playing them annually. We only shared the Sun Belt Conference at the FBS level in 2013. So is it fair to say we “left them behind” when they never really caught up?

Then those are longer conferences imo. I certainly won't be interested whatever garbage criteria they use to come up with a conference champion let alone shoe horning a 4 loss UT team into the playoff. You won't have schedule that really fairly determines who best in the conference on the field with no subjectivity.

Way more detrimental long term than NIL. I already watch less CFB that doesn't involve a team on UNT's schedule. We might be getting Longhorns vs Aggies back but it won't be the same. Also the time is quickly approaching that stupid arguments for 3 loss SEC or Big 10 team get into the 4 team playoff are made. Baseball killed itself for decades as an elite cartel if a few running the sport killing competition in board rooms before spring training. This is very Reminiscent of that. The elite are gathering buffer schools around them in conference to make the competition look somewhat legitimate. Meanwhile 60% to 75% of these P5 conference schools won't ever be mentioned in 4 team playoff talk for the next 20 years by the midpoint of any given season. 🤷🏽‍♂️

I think winning is the important thing as long as you aren't playing bigger brands. Do you really think Tulsa and Tulane are going to put more of our fans in Apogee? Are Temple and South Florida moving the needle in Denton? Navy might be the only team we MIGHT see each season (depending on whatever conference scheduling the new AAC adopts) that puts a few extra buts in seats. What kind of attendance bump do you expect that independent of us winning.?

Who was really pining for an update on the brother of a QB prospect who didn't work out for UNT? Especially if they are going to a school completely off the local radar?

We just keep inching in land as the incoming tide washes the beach away imo. I would be really curious to see what our attendance looked like if we play Texas Tech, OSU, Baylor, and Houston, every year and were around 0.500 in those games. We were already playing SMU regularly and the other teams that will be new to our conference schedule really won't do anything for attendance even if we are 0.750 against them.

Nobody “leftover” from the Big 12 really moves the needle especially if the teams they already passed over aren’t an option. I mention serval months ago in another discussion that the PAC 12 should be kicking themselves for not getting into the state of Texas. None of the religious schools “available” move the needle either except Notre Dame. Baylor is an Ann Richard’s directive away from being Rice. TCU punches above its weight on the field but when they are mediocre who is watching them alumni and a few people in DFW? Nobody not in those 2 groups except rabid CFB fans are making their games appointment TV. KU and KSU gives you those entire states, elite basketball and penetration in the Kansas City media market. Like I said it's my opinion that the logical best moves for the Pac 12 presented itself when Big 12 had their first defections. Academically they didn't want OU or OSU. They should have offer the Longhorns and whatever team they wanted to bring with them. If that failed, next choice would be Houston and another in state school they wanted to bring with them. Like it or not the whole state of Texas had been picked clean of schools that could move the needle significantly for a P5 conference not already in the state.

Interesting logical but more complicated than one would assume. The PAC 12 gave all those school the stiff arm before and they made it known for over two they don’t want religious schools in the conference. I think they reach out to the KU & KSU before those schools. An unpopular but very easy replacements for the LA teams that would provide similar geographic balance would be San Diego State & Fresno State. Having San Diego all to themselves and in the PAC 12 without a pro team could make them unquestionably a top 40 program. They already have a brand new stadium that is yet to host its first game. What would be the drawback of a 4 star who have to redshirt at another program choosing to go San Diego instead? Bad weather, shortage of pretty women, or lack of fun things to do. 🤷🏽‍♂️ Lol

https://meangreensports.com/sports/tickets That is the link. In is at the top of the page with other old articles. 🤷🏽‍♂️

I thought about posting a whole new topic but what I was about to post separately fits here perfect now that you mentioned this. Like a good fan/alumni I skipped the other ticket sites and went to ours to browse UTEP vs North Texas tickets . But what was on the first page that greeted me? — A “Reduce capacity notice” from almost 2 years ago. Now that is the way to get a fan excited about engaging with the program. 😮🤦🏽‍♂️ A minor detail and easy to fix. I don’t understand why that is still up. Doesn’t reinforce my faith in the leadership at all.

If he is actually good, he will be going to the NFL after the 2023 season. I think he make Arch have redshirt season. I don’t see Quin transferring to a G5 school if lives up to 50% of his hype.

I hope you are right. Your analysis is very balanced and it should be the criteria for bringing him back. Highly unlikely he hits that positive late season streak IMO especially with 5 of starting front 7 from defense last year gone now. The DB room has been the weak link under Seth most of his tenure. I hate to imagine both major parts of the defense struggling all year.

Okay College Football guru (and anyone who agrees with him). When were we in a conference with Texas, Texas A&M, and Tech. How many Heisman Trophy winners or finalist do we have? How many 1st Team All American's post Mean Joe? How many times has the Mean Green cracked the top 15 in the ranking? And are you really going to make the case a great DT in since the triple option and wishbone went out of style can generate the same buzz among casual fans that a great QB can? 🙄. (And even during that era the QB was only second in hype SOMETIMES to running backs). So no, this is not a fair comparison or similar test case we are far below where Houston in the Football landscape then and even more so now. (How seriously do you think boards the Big 12, Pac 10, or even the MWC considered adding us?). Come on, I hate detail our program's lack of cachet but that was a ridiculous comparison.

Even if it isn’t us, I would love to see a recruit like Arch at a G5 school. (As long as it isn’t SMU or UTSA). What would it look like? Does he sellout Apogee? Do we get enough recruits and experience enough success to have a lasting positive impact lasting 10 years or more? It would be a great test case for NIL justification. If it can be shown in receipts that a recruit can lift program financially beyond what he might receive through NIL then the arguing against NIL becomes even harder. I would love for North Texas to be the test case. No better place to do it a program in a huge football hungry market with demographics to be on par with all but the richest teams in P5.

Man I needed to be quicker on the draw NT93 was too fast. With a crowded QB room with one another all time hyped QB that has already transferred into the program in on the roster, this could be another train wreck. The Applewhite v Simms controversy likely cost them a national championship game appearance.

Okay then fold the program right? If you are asserting the best this program can do is 0.425 there is no point. If we can’t replicate what UTSA has done that is a failure of leadership here. And we can absolutely run the table in CUSA no juggernauts in this conference.

You mean fans aren’t excited to see Seth get chance to post his 4th consecutive losing season?

Last year? How about the last 3? That UTSA game shouldn’t have saved his job especially since it was followed up by a convincing loss to powerhouse Miami of Ohio in a basically a home game. I still say if the weather was dry and not extremely windy UTSA is close in that game minimally and they like win. He is under 0.500 now with an opportunity to post his 4th consecutive losing season. Any hope is just regular fandom wishful thinking. We all hope against logic that this is a great season. But I can’t fault anyone for being realistic about a team whose high water mark appears to be 5-7. And that ends up being the case EVERYONE should fuming mad they brought Seth back to essentially waste time but “save” money. 🤷🏽‍♂️