BillySee58

History does not look favorably on recruiting classes and teams with high counts of players with bad offer lists. Nor does it look favorably on evaluators who go too far off the cusp and over rely on their evaluations when they don't conform with the general consensus. On the college and pro level. I hope Littrell can find those exceptions without expending too many spots.

Let's just go with 25 at this point, haha. I've seen enough contradictory information and loopholes to where that's the only thing I'm really certain of anymore, is that the coaches will find a way to get 25. With as many scholarships as we are short, plus the seniors, we have over 25 open spots.

Mullens was not there when they went 0-12, but your message still comes through. Fine just needs to use this year as a learning tool and make real, steady progress.

O'hara's arm was in a sling on the sideline last week. Think he's been shut down. Not sure how long ago that happened.

1. NorthTexan95 is a dude who tracks this program and our scholarship situation as closely as anyone despite being 1K plus miles away. He has never tried to dub himself a recruiting expert, so not sure who you're quoting there. 2. Experts, as in plural? One guy being logically critical of a recruit means "recruiting experts" are not excited to have him next season? This is both a good justification for a bad game, and potential cause for concern at the same time. Every player is a D1 guy at the next level, obviously. So this is a good test for a QB who is about to go from playing defenses with basically no D1 players to playing in college against only D1 players. Unfortunate to see him not do so well on that test, but also not the end of the world.

Because Mccarney was the worst recruiting head coach in all of FBS, and Mike Grant wasn't too much better when it came to recruiting coordinators. Mccarney didn't get a Twitter account until he signed his extension, and Twitter is such an advantageous communication venue because of how much less limited it is than phone communication. And he used outdated references like Fran Tarkenton that meant nothing to HS kids. Also he thought his name carried a lot more weight than it didn't and was just completely out of touch in general. As for Dodge, he was a good recruited period. His background certainly didn't hurt, but he was successful recruiting JUCO players as well. Not just metroplex high school kids. Again, perception doesn't matter if a new coach can get high school kids to buy him and his program at the present. And if he can do that frequently enough, maybe some coaches and parents still discourage the kid from going there, but the college coach will typically be able to sell them as well by proxy. Johnny Jones is an example of a good recruiter getting good players here. That's all it takes. Not saying we have good perception or that our perception doesn't matter, but I am saying that it will get easily superseded by recruits if the coach can successfully sell them on the program.

An almost identical situation did happen for UT back in 09-10 with the transfer of Jeronne Maymon. He transferred at the end of the fall 2009 semester to UT, had to sit out that spring and fall 2010 before being deemed eligible in spring 2011. If this appeal isn't won, it's not like it's just because we are not in a power conference. There is precedent of him needing to sit out two semesters, even at the big conferences. https://www.google.com/amp/host.madison.com/sports/columnists/jim_polzin/marquette-blindsided-by-maymon-s-exit/article_8b7a5036-eb84-11de-971c-001cc4c03286.amp.html

True, but his program didn't really compete with the best of the Big XII until he got these 4-star recruits who were offered by some of the top programs in the country. https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/11828 https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/15117

I've read comments from some of these coaches thinking we're not division 1 because we aren't in one of the premier conferences. Many are not like GMG24. Their parents most likely watching either their alma mater or nationally televised games like 95+% of people who watch college football. Yes parents and coaches typically have more background than recruits, but if our coach impresses them and they trust him with their son and believe in his product, that trumps preconceptions. Did the coaches and parents not know about our history back in 2008? Didn't seem to deter us from landing a top 100 class and number 1 in our conference.

I still don't understand why people think high school recruits are college football historians and aficionados to the point that they have concept on the history of a school that doesn't have nationally televised games. Out of the next 10 high school recruits we offer, I would be very surprised if a single one of them could tell us who our previous athletic director was or who either of our last two head football coaches were at the moment we offer. Same goes for their parents. Who here could've named who the athletic director was if someone would've asked you on your first day on campus? Or how about if they asked you who the AD at North Texas was when you were in high school? I remember last year our coaches asked recruits who between Trevor Moore and Kenny Buyers was the starting CB and which was the starting kicker, and more recruits thought Moore was the CB. These kids aren't watching UNT football unless they are already committed or are already seriously considering us. My senior class had 6 division 1 signees. Only 2 or 3 of those guys actually spent substantial time watching college football before they committed, and the college football they were watching and paying attention to was the nationally televised teams like Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, USC, etc. Look at Todd Dodge's 2008 class and their offer lists. https://northtexas.rivals.com/commitments/football/2008 These guys chose us over notable programs, and they didn't care about our history, our conference, or our awful stadium. Dodge lifted us above 100 on the recruiting lists with less to work with than Littrell. Dodge was a good recruiter and was able to successfully sell them on his program right then and there. That's all it takes. The current coaches are the program to these recruits and even their parents. Not players who played here before they were born, or prior athletic directors, or prior coaches. We're recruiting teenage high school kids. Not 50-year olds who have spent the last 30 years watching college football all day every fall Saturday.

And to add to that, the idea that it doesn't matter if our signees don't have any other offers as long as Littrell thinks they can play and they fit our system is flawed, similarly. The other coaches are recruiting to their system as well. And the other coaches are good evaluators as well. There is no shortcut from winning recruiting battles for players other teams want.

Sure thing! The thing about high school kids is they really are blank canvases, so to speak. For us who have followed the team for any length of time, we know the history but high school kids typically do not. Unless their parents went to North Texas, they really have no concept of us or any CUSA program, for that matter. They most likely grew up watching the games on CBS, ABC, and ESPN which we don't play on (ESPN3/360 doesn't count). Also, we try to forget the Dodge years and feel like it is a black cloud on this program that will linger forever. But for recruiting, it never happened! Not because of how hard we try to forget about it, but because the current HS seniors were in 6th grade the last time Todd Dodge coached a game for North Texas. They were born in late 1998 or early 1999. They don't know about the Dodge era. They definitely don't know about before then, and unless Mccarney offered them before he was fired, they most likely don't know who Dan Mccarney is. Like I said, these kids are blank canvases. They know what the coach recruiting them tells them, their parents if they have parents who do their homework, and what their HS coaches tell them, and maybe some research the proactive ones do on their own. The facilities are here, the students and campus are here, and the proximity works in our favor. If we have good recruiting coaches, it doesn't matter what we did or didn't do before they were born or before they really spent time watching college football.

Recruiting. First of all, we're in Texas which produces the most FBS recruits in the country at typically 350+ per year. https://www.google.com/amp/www.footballstudyhall.com/platform/amp/2013/9/11/4718442/college-football-state-texas-california-florida But an excuse Mccarney subtly liked to bring up is that there are 12 FBS programs (which Mac would incorrectly say 12 Division 1 programs) in the state of Texas. It has been mentioned on here as well. But, it's Texas. If you look at in-state three-star or better recruits per FBS program, Texas still has has one of the most dense rates in the country at over 20 three-star or better recruits per FBS program in Texas. One of just six states in the country that has over 20 three-stars per FBS program, with Florida being the only other state that hosts another CUSA school(s). https://www.google.com/amp/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football-recruiting/2015/4/15/8143431/states-most-players-recruits But we don't just have the advantage of being in Texas. The quadrant, if you will, of Texas that we are in is the one where Texas produces the majority of its NFL players. Take a look at this map and look how many NFL players are produced in DFW and out in the sparsely populated East Texas. http://batchgeo.com/map/69d2f3e3a2caec281c38a7e8d263ae11 And again, back to East Texas, this is possibly our biggest advantage. Because East Texas is so spread out, the players there don't get recruited as heavily. Let's say you're a coach coming to recruit from out of state. What's a more efficient use of your budget: flying to DFW, getting a rental car, and driving within a 30 miles radius of the airport where every school you visit has 2-6 FBS-caliber seniors, OR driving 2-3 hours one way out to a small town in East Texas that maybe has one FBS caliber-recruit and there isn't another for 40 miles? This is why Jeff Wilson and La'Darius Hamilton don't get many offers. But we're close enough to make that drive and get these guys. Had Wilson and Hamilton played high school ball at places like Coppell or Allen, their offer lists wouldn't even resemble the ones that they actually had. And then there's our school size and local alumni base. I'll defer to @Cerebuson this one, but I'd imagine we have more local alumni than any school in CUSA. We've done an awful job of getting club membership out of these alumni, which has been well chronicled by Cerebus as well. Don't mistake bad leadership and management with being at an inherent disadvantage.

Email untfootball@unt.edu or tweet at the coaches.

Exactly. When evaluating a recruit, college coaches don't evaluate film, or live play, in terms of good plays and bad plays. They evaluate in terms of ability and capabilities. Did this dude get smaller? Did he get weaker? Did he get less athletic? Even if he is having a "bad season" are our coaches watching every snap of his amidst our own season? I don't necessarily buy the "bad season" narrative. Maybe he is grading out lower this year than last, but unless his traits and abilities have evaporated then I just don't believe that's enough to pull an offer.

So the coaches pulled the offer because his high school team is too run-oriented, despite being perfectly fine offering and accepting a commitment in the first place back when his high school team had run the ball even more. That's just not how it works. They evaluate the player and project his skills. They saw him live at a camp. They determined he could fit their scheme and what plays his high school ran after that are irrelevant.

Then why would we have offered in the first place?

Look at our all-conference players since we joined CUSA. Their offer lists aren't spectacular (except for Trice and maybe Lemon), but they had offers nonetheless. Good, solid G5/Non-AQ offer lists. Zach Orr - Louisiana Tech, San Diego State, Tulsa, UTEP https://rivals.com/content/prospects/24112 Aaron Bellazin - Buffalo, ULM, San Diego State, SMU, UTEP https://rivals.com/content/prospects/64241 Mason Y'Barbo - Houston, ULM, and some FCS schools - Can't find the Vito article from back when he committed, but that's what he had Derek Akunne - Air Force, Colorado State, Western Kentucky https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/28192 Cyril Lemon - FIU, Houston, La Tech, Missouri, New Mexico State, Rice https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/52411 Marcus Trice - At least 9 P5/BCS AQ conferences https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/55424 James Jones - Houston, Troy, Miss. State, New Mexico http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/_/id/172128/james-jones Chancellor - No other FBS offers https://rivals.com/content/prospects/18180 *^Also, I've said this before, but the positions that consistently are the biggest exception to this are smaller, speedy receivers, defensive backs (more often corners), and QBs. That's because these guys often don't get many, or any offers if they're undersized but that's not in their job description. If they can make people miss, get open, catch the ball, cover people, throw the ball/run an offense then they don't need to have plus-size for their position. Anyways it just comes down to the law of averages. Individual recruits, it doesn't really matter. Over the course of an entire recruiting class and team, these guys are the ones who are much more likely to become all-conference guys than recruits with no other FBS offers. Obviously there are other variables but, ceteris paribus, the more of these recruits you have on your roster, the more likely you are to have more all-conference guys. Or, in the case of last year, if you don't really have any of these guys as your upperclassmen, that's a good recipe for ending with no all-conference guys, which we did.

On an individual level, there are all kinds of examples of players with pedestrian offer lists, or two-stars becoming exceptional players, or the opposite. But study after study has shown that the more highly recruited/rated player, the higher likelihood of that player becoming a starter/all-conference/drafted/etc. Over the course of a recruiting class or a roster, it just becomes an example of the law of averages. The beauty of saving a few spots late is getting guys whose other offers have expired because those schools' classes filled up. While still not winning recruiting battles in that case, the player is just as good usually. Is it really a noteworthy job of identifying talent when you get a guy plenty of other schools did offer but no longer have room for? I've been an advocate of getting a player or two each class without any other FBS offers. The problem is signing too many of those guys like in 2012. Sure you get a Carlos Harris every once in a while, but a whole class of that gets you the senior class on a 1-11 team. Even if Littrell and his staff are good evaluators, that doesn't mean their top options are going to be kids no one else wants. It will be the opposite more times than not.

I disagree. Don't think his opinion is viewed negatively, just don't think it holds anymore weight than most that of the average CUSA coach. At least for now.

I've followed that so closely ever since the 25-per-class cap was enacted, and I've seen so much contradicting information and loopholes. First Mccarney had to count four walkons, placed on scholarship with less than two seasons as a walkon, toward our 2014 class. Then the next season we did the same thing and still signed 25. And haven't counted those since, and to my knowledge that rule didn't go away. I'd say it's safest to assume the staff finds a way to get 25. JayD is spot on with this one. If you look at the players we signed, we didn't hardly win any head-to-head recruiting battles. Some didn't have any other FBS offers, and most of players that did have offer lists were no longer being actively recruited by the schools that did offer them. Like Hamilton (Texas State) and Moore (Rice), and all of those late JUCOs were basically free agents with other schools out of spots. Winning recruiting battles has to pick up.

This is not a flash in the pan, sir. Their recruiting has been exceptional since Fleck got there after the 2012 season. Been mentioning it on here for a couple years now.

Oh, I know Mike has. He's been contacting the staff about this kid for a couple years. Just getting the contact info out again.

untfootball@unt.edu, or tweet at the coaches

Sure. I said I really doubt Littrell would use a spot, as in spot in the signing class, on Hoston. Never said I thought he would deny an attempt at him walking on.