SMU2006

A lot of these matchups are going to be offered as a digital subscription package (ESPN+ or something similar) so game windows or overlapping content isn't really an issue anymore.

Its happening (and it'll come together VERY quickly)

The PAC-12 imploded because USC/UCLA knew they had a golden ticket to the Big 10 and shot down expansion in the wake of Texas/OU to the SEC. The PAC could've had TCU, Texas Tech, OK State, and Kansas. They could've killed the Big 12 but the PAC commish foolishly trusted USC/UCLA. Further, their media deal was set to expire with no penalties for leaving the conference. Not entirely Kliavkoff's fault but still absolutely insane. There are valuable properties on the west coast. The PAC is consolidating what they can with respect to brands but now they need markets. They know this. MWC/AAC know this. Just a matter if they can make the money work.

Who is to say they won't be a bidder? I'm sure they'll want to kick the tires. My point is the value will be absorbed elsewhere. If they are moving puzzle pieces to bid on the PAC then they'll be fine brokering a deal to assist Tulane/Memphis. Even if they don't I could see a streamer like Apple (in tandem with a linear distributor) having interest in the PAC.

Tennessee fans like winning. You have a fan base that has been 20 years in the wilderness and now they smell national relevance. I love it.

They'll do the same thing they did when the AAC lost teams to the Big 12. Go grab schools from another ESPN property (ex. Sun Belt/MAC)

If they are able to secure Memphis, Tulane, and a few others it'll be a decent media package. Content is still king and having the best G5 conference will have value in the marketplace. What that looks like on a $/team basis that's anyone's guess.

8 teams isn't going to be enough content for a media partner. You have to get to 10 (minimum) but 12 would be ideal. That's where the Texas schools come in with markets and travel partners for Memphis/Tulane.

Tulsa and Rice are probably dropping football in the next ten years. The PAC needs markets after they've secured the best MWC brands. Memphis, Tulane, UNT, and UTSA are the obvious choices. I'm sure they'd love to have UNLV but the political entanglements with UN-Reno are making that problematic. I do think UNLV will eventually find their way to break free of their ties to UN-Reno but they might be too late if the PAC lures 4-5 schools from the AAC.

If the Big 12 is pillaged I could see a scenario where UNT gets in there.

A little inside baseball here but needless to say there is no realistic scenario where UNT is a member of the ACC. Big 12 TV contract runs through 2029. ACC will target Utah, Kansas, and Arizona. There is a reason the ACC schedule model runs through 2030. They are going shopping when the Big 12 has to go to market and renegotiate without Texas/OU.

San Antonio >>>> San Marcos They've also had more sustained success than Texas State. UTSA has been among the best G5 football programs over the last 5-7 years. Texas State has been good for a year (also tied to their magic coach who they will not be able to retain).

Memphis is 100% not a candidate for the ACC. Tulane is a fringe candidate and doesn't have the deep pockets to broker their way into the league. USF has a real chance but we're talking 8-10 years down the road. If you are any of these schools and the PAC is a sure thing you'd be foolish not to take it. It is going to be clearly the top G5 league and could garner a decent media rights package. You are also 99% assured of getting your league champion into the playoff. You can wait around for an ACC offer that is a ten year off prayer or you can take the sure thing now. If they are thinking strategically the PAC will extend offers to Memphis, Tulane, USF, UNT, and UTSA/Texas State. Crush the AAC and the MWC and turn their attentions to securing the media deal.

Several G5's are going to have to make some difficult choices on football in the coming years. UNT will be okay but schools like Tulsa, UTEP, Ark State, etc. could be forced to shut it down.

The new PAC won't be treated like a power conference but it will unquestionably be the dominant G5 conference in both football and basketball. We'll see what kind of pitch they're able to make to Memphis/Tulane but if they are able to lure them out of the AAC it will be an absolute war between any of the remaining viable options for PAC expansion.

None of it really makes sense. It'll be dictated by a combination of factors: 1) ESPN and the PAC war chest brokering schools out of their existing conferences/contracts 2) Strength of identifiable football brands and TV markets 3) Access to the playoff; what combination of schools makes the PAC the clear front runner in G5? All of those things tell me that, at a minimum, four schools will be added to the PAC. Depending on how the numbers work it could be as many as eight but I doubt they do that many. Six schools sounds about right but again it'll be dictated by some combination of 1-3 above.

One game is irrelevant to how these things go. I still think there is a very good chance the PAC extends invites to UNLV, Memphis, UNT, UTSA, Tulane, and potentially USF. They need markets in the absolute worst way in addition to burying their competition (MWC/AAC). It makes too much sense but it'll depend on who ESPN decides they want to join the league.

who hurt you?

So you'd rather continue playing Tulsa, Rice, UAB, FAU, and Temple? Like it or not the PAC is going to be the best non P4 conference and will get their champion into the at-large G5 spot virtually every year. That has value.

The potential for being left out is going to create a ton of anxiety. PAC is making a move to create the best non P4 conference in the country that will almost assuredly get the one at-large bid to the playoff. You better believe there is gonna be an all out war between schools in the MWC and AAC to get in.

#12 Tampa (USF)

This might be Rice's only saving grace. They absolutely have the donor base to fund a move but based on recent history they have zero interest in being competitive in football. Rice's combination of academics, money, and location could be interesting to the PAC but they are seriously lacking commitment to athletics. I think that alone puts them behind UNT, UTSA, and Texas State.

You're thinking of it the wrong way. You're right that the PAC will not do anything to help UNLV. They are hoping that the defections of the four MWC will create a panic from schools like UNLV to do whatever they can to get in. This could mean funding their own buyouts of the existing MWC and foregoing a certain percentage (or all) media rights. The PAC has all the leverage now. It'll be interesting to see which schools can both financially and institutionally incentive the PAC to extend an invite b/c now the AAC and MWC are in danger of losing "best G5" status to the PAC.