untjim1995

We are going to beat them. It may be by less than a TD, but we will beat them. They have no developed talent. Morris isn't going to change that in his first year. They might be a better as the season goes, but I still bet they don't win more than 3 games at best. I do think Morris could pull a June Jones and make marked improvement in his second year at the Hilltop, but I also think its just as likely that he could be their next Phil Bennett, Mike Cavan, Tom Rossley, etc... I tihnk we win a late game by being in better game shape and making fewer mistakes, maybe even coming from behind to win, but we will beat them. Mac's teams play up for "rivalry" games--he knows how to motivate his players to beat the team that his players and fans hate the most. Its why he had a winning record against Iowa while in Ames, when Iowa State rarely beat them before he got there. I'll say it again...if we cannot beat SMU, there's not one other FBS team on our schedule we will beat.

FIFY

What are your expectaitons, realistically, for this upcoming season?

This. Thinking anti-trust suit here is about the same as USFL vs NFL...it won't end well for the G5s. Look, we blew it decades ago. We decided to play football at a level that killed the chance of ever getting the program up to the P5 level of today. We are behind ever school in the MWC and AAC, as well as a school or two in the MAC, for ever getting a P5 spot. In our own market, it took pissant SMU moving to the AAC just to get us into CUSA or else we are stuck still in the SBC. You can bitch about the truth, but the leadership here didn't care about big time athletics, so Cerebus' point about becoming the best G5 team we can be is all you can hope for now. And if you believe that we are going to eventually be playing in a conference above us right now, its just not happening. Right now, we are an underachiever in G5. Let's aim to just be an achiever at this level first, then look at becoming an overachiever at this level, like Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, Northern Illinois, UH, UCF, and others have been in recent years. Those of us on the outside are officially out after the last legislation passed. This COA BS will be the end of college football amateurism. There's no way we can pay what the P5s pay or even the high dollar G5 institutions. We think Dan McCarney and Tony Benford have colossal contracts...they aren't anything compared to the coaches in any P5 school and a lot of G5 schools. UNT90, we see eye-to-eye on a lot of this stuff, but the courts and the legislatures are full of P5 graduates and their pockets are lined by P5 money and their media. Our only chance now of ever being nationally known for anything athletically is in basketball, because of the current setup of the NCAA Tournament. Assuming that doesn't change radically from its current setup, you can become a Gonzaga-type program from outside the P6 in basketball (includes the Big East). But we have severely crushed that hope with the hire of and retainment of Tony Benford, who's colossal $325k salary is apparently too much to buyout beyond a year (shocking...). The P5 is probably, at best, stay at its current number of 66 if you include BYU, but there are more schools that are liable to get drop-kicked out (ahem, Baylor, TCU, and ISU) than get a chance to move up (UConn and maybe one of Cincy, UCF, and Memphis). We aren't going to be in that group, for one big reason--we chose not to fund a winning program. Everything else we have endured and dealt with all come from that decision.

I completely agree. If this game is even close, I will be shocked. I don't think it will be as bad as the Nicholls State game last season, but I see us just drilling this team. Seriously, without a doubt, after Portland State, the least talented team on our schedule is SMU. Playing in our backyard, even at their stadium, still should be a win. There won't be one other team we will play less talented than SMU. And they have absolutely no home field advantage when they play us, even down there. After those two teams, your best bets are against the three CUSA West teams that are at the bottom with us, USM, UTSA, and UTEP--in order of weakest to strongest. Playing UTEP here is the only reason they are listed, but I do think we can beat them here.Those three are 50/50 games. After that, Rice, WKU, @‌La Tech, @‌ Marshall, and @‌ MUTS are games we have a shot, but probably don't win unless we get a lot of breaks. I think we win 3-4 games this season, with 5+ wins being a real surprise, and less than 3 being a complete disaster.

I agree with absolutely everything you posted here, TTG...except the last sentences. There is no way his seat gets hot until after the 2016 season, unless he wins a combined 2 games or less in back-to-back seasons. Even then, I doubt we are gonna buy him out before he has one last year left on his contract. I see 2017 bringing us three possible options, all of which are just about equal, in my opinion. One, Mac has a bad year, following three bad seasons, and gets fired at some point. Two, he has a bowl season in 2017 and gets another extension, just less than the one he just received, like a 2-3 year extension. Or Three, Mac announces he will retire at the end of 2018 and UNT lets him run out the clock on his complete contract. I trust Mac to develop his lines and that his defense and special teams will keep getting better as they get stronger. I expect that our running game will get better by 2017. I also expect that his QB will be some combo of Derek Thompson/Mini Mac, a guy who doesn't get you killed with stupid turnovers, but cannot win you games on their shoulders. They will handoff 2/3rds of the time and throw short, safe passes on most dropbacks. If your running game and defense are outstanding and you create a lot of turnovers, you will get to a bowl game. If not, then you won't ever win more than 5 games. Whether we want to admit it or not, this season is all about development. If we win 5 games or more, Chico probably stays. If not, he goes. Then next year, you aim for #hit6 again. And finally, in 2017, you look at 7+ wins again as a real possibility, having stronger depth, bigger lines, and an experienced busdriver again.

How long have you followed UNT Sports? Its been a long time, as in many decades, correct? That fork has already been stuck in you and me for years--we just continue to go and watch the team(s) play, unlike the other 98% of the university's family.

McNulty is number one on the depth chart and will start at SMU. What all of you Damarcus Smith fans aren't even considering is that he is behind both McNulty and Greer in Chico's and Mac's heads. This offense doesn't even come close to using the strengths that Damarcus Smith offers--its meant for a busdriver, preferably an experienced busdriver. In 2013, that was Derek Thompson, who had an incredible defense and special teams with an easier schedule. In 2015, McNulty will get the first two months to show his stuff, just with a worse defense and special teams and a much, much harder schedule. My guess is that we will see MiniMac start the first four games. If we lose at USM, then we will see another QB against might Portland State. If that QB doesn't get it done, MiniMac will get the job back by the time we play UTSA at home, as Mac is going to go with the QB that has the best chance at beating the RoadBirds. I see two for-sure wins on this schedule: @‌SMU and at home against Portland State. If you cannot win those two, you won't beat anyone else. But assuming you can, @‌USM, UTSA, and UTEP remian your best chances for wins. Win 2 of those three and it gets us to 4-8, which I think is about where we will finish.

That's already happened, but the P5s still pay us to play them. When that money faucet stops, the G5s will face teh music. Its why Benson of the Sun Belt has actually been speaking the truth about the fact that their schools are "addicted" to the easy pay games at P5 powerhouses. He knows, since he used to run the WAC with Boise State, and Fresno State, that with the right scheduling, you can get a BCS Bowl bid and make more money. But it takes risk and investments. Marshall did that last year and fell short of a BCS Bowl, but probably helped them with their fanbase to donate more to the program.The Helwig approach of 3 bodybag games away from home was impossible to overcome, but RV's 1 or 2 bodybag games a year hasn't been much better. As crazy as Benson is, his point on these P5 bloodbaths is dead-on. But those opportunities are going to go away soon enough and there isn't a thing that non-P5s will be able to do about it. Those schools control the networks, the NCAA, the state and federal legislatures, and the bowls. When the schism occurs, which I think will be within 10 years, those of us sitting outside of the gate are going to have to decide something very important. Will football continue to be worth playing? Its a question that will be incredibly difficult to answer for sure. Will folks show up to watch us play SMU, UTSA, UTEP, Tulsa, UH, etc...or will they just stay away, like they did when we were 1-aa, as if the current G5 teams are basically the same as Nicholls State and McNeese State. Its not hard to imagine schools like SMU and Tulane flat out dropping the program versus keeping it going, but I don't know about the other public schools in the region. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, for sure.

Here's my worry about doing a meeting like that...I don't think that they all like UNT Football, as a matter of fact, I strongly believe that many of them loathe the program because of its costs and its "boorishness". These people like arts and music, just like their constituents. I wouldn't put it past all of them to get together in a confernece room and decide to drop football altogether, then use Apogee for high school games and concerts, as well as to make it the home of The Green Brigade. There's no way you can convince me that all of those people care about UNT Athletics, much less want to raise them to a higher level--that would cost money. I do think that all of them would want to make sure that music got taken care of properly, though...and Apogee would make for a fine marching band venue in their minds. Athletics won't get elevated here unless the BOR/administration make a concerned pivot towards increasing funding of the program. I don't care if our budget is top 3 in CUSA right now. If it means that we are stuck with bad coaches, then that figure doesn't equate to anything good. And right now, Tony Benford is getting a 4th year as our coach because we can't/won't buy him out, just as we did with Todd Dodge and Vic Trilli in years past, as well as Darrell Dickey back in 2001 when a BOR member flat out told RV he couldn't fire him in the middle of a season, even tough he was 0-5 at that point in his 4th year, following three seasons where he went 8-26. Until winning at revenue sports becomes the ultimate goal, which would require a complete sea change at the top levels of the BOR and administration, you are going to see Coach Mac get three more years on his contract, bar none. He can literally go 0-12 this year and next and keep his job witht he current mindset. And RV is here for life, no matter what. That part cannot even be debated. If you get 14 years here with the records of the revenue sports he has had, you know he really can just stay here until he wants to retire. I don't see us going down a different path. The city doesn't want it, the university's leadership doesn't want to fund it, and the overwhelming amount of students and alumni don't care. My guess is that the diehards on here will continue to follow and fund the program, while the 5 or 6 big money donors will still get RV's undivided attention so they can brag to their friends about being tight with the AD, and we will still enjoy games at Apogee, because its not decrepit old Fouts, even if the opponenets are basically the same as those we played when we were playing at Fouts. Its just how it works around here...it has been for decades, some a bit better (the 60s and 70s) and some a lot worse (the 80s and 90s).

Truly, they seem like the only school out there that has the same issues to deal with, both market-wise and record-wise, albeit SJSU never dropped down to i-aa. We both are afterthoughts, from the media, the state's citizenry, and even our own students, faculty, and alumni.

apathy

I remember thinking like this, especially after moving up to Division 1 in 1995. Then I watched the first regime, Matt Simon's, go 11-22 before he got canned. The I watched Darrell Dickey go 42-64 before he got canned. Then I watched Todd Dodge's regime lead us to a 8-40 record in the enxt four years. And now I've seen Dan McCarney go 22-27 in four years, with at least three more seasons to go. You'll get here, too. At which point, you'll either follow the 98% of alums and students who don't give a rip about UNT sports or you'll join the rest of us, who follow us because they are our team, even though you know a winning season around here comes around about as easy as getting a winning scratch-off lottery ticket. Fan expectations aren't ever going to make any difference if the school's expectations are far below what the fans want. And in our case, the first big problem is that the culture has made it to where there aren't many fans to even begin with, much less care about and fund the program.

Welcome to UNT fandom...its pretty much been this way for the 25 years I've followed the program. You got two things right, for sure--the stadium is nice and our kids play hard. Where this program is right now, this schedule is damn near impossible to expect much more than 5 wins with the current roster we have. Sorry, but Iowa and Tennessee are bought games. Maybe if we had 2013's team again, they wouldn't be--but we don't...at all. Marshall, La Tech, WKU, Rice, and MUTS are much better than we are right now. UTSA, UTEP, and USM are the three teams on the schedule that we are probably competitive with. And SMU and Portland State are the two teams we are better than right now. That's it. Its just sad man, sad...but the AD keeps getting extensions and the head coach has four more years on his contract. The change you want isn't going to happen--even if we went 0-12 this year. The OC will get fired, as well some other coaches on the staff, but the head coach is here for at least three more seasons--and the AD here is a lifer at this point. He has survived this long with the products we have thrown out there, led by his hires, and still gets extended, he basically will get to determine when he retires and what room/venue will get named after him at UNT after he's done.

This is very true. All of those schools have had banner basketball teams over the years, much bigger than their football programs. In some ways, I would rather see a commissioner who was focused on hoops than football. None of the lower G5 conferences can really the current situation we are now in, especially with the paying of players. But it doesn't cost nearly as much to have a basketball team become a winner on the national front because of the current setup in the NCAA and NIT Tournaments. Same actually applies to College Baseball, as well. We all love college football, but we are basically forced to ride the ship in steerage, while the P5s ride first class. In the past, they allowed for one team to at least have a shot at visiting the top of the cruise line, but even that seems like it won't happen much longer. And at some point, the folks on the ship are probably gonna kick off the steerage to float on lifeboats to their next ship or harbor. The scary part of the entire equation is if the P5s really do fully separte at some point from the NCAA, taking their teams to a different setup for their teams. If that ever happens, ESPN, Fox, and CBS will be going absolutely crazy at the thought of only having their pet schools to cover for the future. CBS covers the P5 Basketball Toiurnament--plus the Big East, A_10, and the West Coast Conference, for example. ESPN covers the P5 College World Series. And Fox covers the P5 Football Playoff System. The G5s can probably exist if they fully separate football away from ever playing P5s again, but they cannot exist if the Basketball Tournaments and College World Sereis ever go away. You'd see several schools in the G5 and FCS probably give up on college sports if they cannot at least have the chance to participate in the college basketball and baseball tournaments. Football is one thing, but basketball and baseball, albeit much less popular than college football, are the two revenue sports that allow the little guys a chance at scheduling revenue games against the bigger schools and also gives them the opportunity to actually slay Goliath. I'd give away never playing a P5 school ever again right now if it meant that the NCAA Tournament and College World Series never change a bit in terms of who gets to play for a bid and that it includes everyone.

Compete against teams that people have heard of because they have won big time in football and basketball or what we have been doing for the last umpeen years... When the MWC expands into Texas again, and they take Rice, UTEP, and UTSA, we better be with them. Hell, UTEP would feel like they are bringing their new family to a class reunion--they'd get their old WAC pals back + games in DFW, Houston, and San Antonio. I'd do backflips to have Boise State, AFA, Colorado State, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, and New Mexico as conference mates. I don't care what that looked like in the Big West days, when we are all Sun Belt level programs. Today's MWC, plus three other Texas teams would be a UNT dream come true to me...

The guy who watched over the worst accounting fiasco that a university in Texas has ever had to admit...and yet didn't get punished, admonished, or even his wrists slapped by the BOR, who instead looked at all of this and EXTENDED his contract. He must have the College of Music as aprimary beneficiary of his estate...or he holds pictures of the BOR members in questionable "positions"

The biggest problem that the P5s are gonna have is having somebody getting the rug pulled out from underneath them with nowhere to go, especially when Wake Forest, Washington State, Mississippi State, and others like them have a place at the table while, potentially, Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, and others don't. In reality, the P4 conferences will probably recognize that its better to go to conferences of 18 just to bring them aboard and invite a selected few out of the G5 to be in their club. You could then break things down regionally in this hypothetical, assuming the NCAA mandated this to ensure that certain teams got included: West UCLA, USC, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Stanford, Utah, Colorado, Boise State, BYU, UT, Tech, TCU, and Baylor South OU, Oklahoma State, Mizzou, Arkansas, A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Memphis East Miami, USF, UCF, Florida State, Clemson, Ga Tech, Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake Forest, Virgina, Va Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, and Uconn North Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, KSU, and Cincy

The ACC will be around, but the Big XII won't--there are too many TV sets in the ACC footprint and too few in the Big XII footprint outside of Texas

I think that is right, except I think that UConn will move up next from the G5, most likely to the ACC. The more I think about it, the more I can see several G5 schools try to go the BYU route and become quasi-P5 by being independent in football. Like it was back before the 90s, we had many independents in football, not just Notre Dame. Miami, FSU, Penn State, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, etc...I could see schools in the top end of the AAC and MWC try this--including UH, UCF, USF, ECU, Memphis, Cincy, Boise State, SDSU, and Fresno State. Each of those schools could partner up with other leagues around them for the other sports, just as BYU and Notre Dame have done.

I completely agree, but what if Gretchen Bataille and the BOR said to RV, "Absolutely no way we are using any funds for that kind of buyout"?

We never have...we have other windows to the university we prop up. In many ways, it amazes me we even still have a football team after they voted to drop it in the early 70s, dropped to 1-aa in the 80s and 90s, then played in Fouts Field in the entirety of the 00's. As a buddy of mine once told me, if the media ever starts polling music programs or art exhibits, you guys at UNT are gonna beat the absolute crap out of the rest of us that care about football and basketball.

Such a classless move...par for the course, though. In his last few years at UNT, we heard that coaching at UNT was the hardest job in America because he was there EVERYDAY, that the few fans we had were MFers, and that his last game at home would involve wearing Hutch Black Jerseys that most middle schools wouldn't wear. Thank goodness that Mattress Mac made us "honor" him by naming the practice fields after him. By the way, I'd go and change that name on the practice fields today--we won't get a red cent from Mattress Mac again and the practice fields don't need to be named after a loser. Make them the Hayden Fry Practice Fields, since he actually won here, unlike any other coach we've had other than Odus Mitchell in the last 60 years.

No season is a throw away, even if the schedule is daunting and the talent is undeveloped. This year plants the seeds for 2016 and beyond.

Yep--we are trying to build up from the ashes. When you look at where we are as a program, compared to the beginning of 2010, you see us in the SBC, playing at Fouts, with Todd Dodge as the head coach. Today looks like heaven compared to that. But the problem is that we are so far behind in the terms of where a real FBS program should be right now, given our location, size, and history of the program. We literally have started trying to catch up about 35 years later than we should have...that's completely on the BOR and leadership of the university. And Tony Benford is proof positive that our view on athletics hasn't changed much...