ColoradoEagle

The rumors that I've seen are ~$200m/yr from Apple for rights to all broadcasts (even tier 3), and they even want control of the Pac 12 Network. That was before Colorado left. If that number is accurate, a) it's completely awful from a dollars standpoint, and b) even worse from an exposure standpoint. Again, if accurate, I'd have to imagine it's Pac-9 or bust, maaaybe Pac-10 with SDSU. They're not going to split that money any more than they have to.

Best of luck to anyone whose in-conference games will only ever be seen on Apple TV for the next several years.

I mean, South Florida was in the Big East when it was still a BCS conference. I'd be willing to wager your average fan doesn't care at all about WSU or OSU. They're potentially the next South Florida's, but with less upside.

More potential donors in a room at the same time as a major donation is showcased for the press and other potential donors not in the room.

Then there’s this one. Take with a mountain of salt. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-expansion-rumors-clemson-florida-state-oregon-washington

One of the early prognosticators of CU to the B12 says Arizona is a done deal this week. Fireworks if true.

Roughly equivalent to La Tech standing loyal with CUSA.

The complicating matters are the exit fee for the MWC, and what looks likely to be streaming for a main media partner. Some MWC schools may jump since even the worst case leftovers of Oregon State, Cal, and Washington State are an upgrade over several of the MWC schools and they already have a terrible media deal. AAC schools would be a bit more shortsighted to jump unless there were some sort of guarantee that Oregon, UW, and the Arizonas stay. That’s about the only thing that would make playing on Prime Video and the CW worth it.

I think you'll have a hard time convincing AAC schools to join a conference whose main media partner is streaming. The CUSA6 tried that and know how bad it is, and any of the other 8 who didn't learn from that lesson...good luck.

I had a very long response written out that, in the end, I don't think is necessary. ESPN wants nothing to do with west coast conferences outside of LA. That means, best case scenario, you're looking at maybe a higher dollar amount than AAC with Apple or Amazon as a main media partner. Woof.

Even in DentonStang's dream scenario above, that contract doesn't match current AAC minus SMU/Tulane in exposure or dollars imo. Nevermind that AAC + CSU/AFA is more likely than AAC - SMU/Tulane.

The best of the MWC has half the media deal the AAC does, and the schools dragging down the Pac media deal are suddenly going to catapult them to a fat contract?

It's been UNT for 35 years now. Makes no sense to keep using North Texas for media. You have limited space a lot of the time and you're trying to build a brand. For apparel and whatever, either is fine.

It doesn't matter 100% of the time, no. Some kids may just want to stay close to home, or have a relative at the school, or whatever. But if a kid is on the fence, they're probably going to fall to the side where they're going to feel more comfortable. There are some people who want the cheapest house they can find, but there's way more that want the nicest house they can move into.

Hence the comparison to the Big 12.

UO and UW aren’t going to allow themselves to be seen playing at a half empty 30k stadium in Dallas. The Pac 12 is in the same situation that the Big 12 was years ago. Nothing is going to happen without approval of the two big dogs, and obviously they don’t want SDSU or SMU.

Pac isn’t going to expand by 1.

I'll raise you two crazy pills. What's left of the Pac (WSU, OSU, Cal, Stanford (?)) gets added to the AAC. Pac ceases to exist as a conference. AAC potentially also adds some combination of CSU, AFA, SDSU, Fresno State, and Boise State.

It's looking more and more like the Big 12 and the AAC (and ESPN) are going to be the winners here.

SDSU is getting ready. You grossly misspelled Boise State.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-06-19/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-conference-realignment-mountain-west-pac-12-june-30-deadline-letters-exit-fee Seems like some drama unfolding.

If half the current Pac leaves, you’re left with Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State. Enough to pull in some MWC schools, but that’s about it. Media contract for that group probably wouldn’t be much higher than the AAC. Definitely not enough to justify the higher travel costs. Also it would cease to be a P5 conference at that point.

MWC, sure. For the AAC, I doubt ESPN just sits around and lets its inventory get raided by a competitor. Also I’m sure there’ll be a clause in whatever media deal the Pac does get that triggers renegotiation if certain members or a certain percentage of the conference leaves, and it won’t be $22m per school.