Greendylan

Sadly, I don't even care in the least who we play next year. I'll cheer for us, but our AD has already raised the white flag for next season.

My how far we've fallen. This time a year ago we would have bristled at a 14 or 16 seed in the NCAA tournament. Now "14 if not 16" is a possible win total for next season . . . and that's the extremist view. If only there were something we could do to restore hope . . .

Good fix . . . and that's exactly the point. Why will any alumni (other than the most hardcore of us) give their time and/or money to a program whose leadership is shouting "We don't care!"

Even more embarrassing than our current trajectory (barring a miracle recruit) to finish with around 25 losses is the message we're sending to the college basketball world.

You raise some excellent points, and I can certainly appreciate this line of thinking. My concern is that a potential recruit might come across this message board and think, "Wow, after such a disappointing season, I expected more of them to be pissed off. I guess they're just so used to sucking that it isn't even a big deal any more." Based on some posts here, one would think we had been in the middle of a complete and utter rebuilding phase after years of irrelevance heading into this season. In reality, we had been a good team for several years and finally were poised to become a great team on the national stage. I'm so foolishly optimistic that I actually believe that even without Tony Mitchell we have the talent to have a decent season next year and finish near the top of CUSA--with the right leadership. So, honest question: Did some of you honestly see signs from this season that our current coaching incarnation will bounce back next year with a winning season? If you did not see such signs but you still want to see another year or two out of them, then should I assume that you don't believe our players are very good and that realistically no coach could have won with them? Or, third option, do you simply not advocate a coaching change because you know we can't afford it anyway, so it's best not to even publicly discuss it and admit our financial woes?

Agreed!

I know that Walton was an important component of our team chemistry. I'm even willing to take a leap and accept that losing our only legitimate, consistent three-point threat completely changed the game plan. However, we finished about 200 spots lower in RPI (246) than we were supposed to based on most preseason projections. I don't think there's any player in the nation who is capable of affecting a team either positively or negatively to that extent. If losing one player crushed our plans that much, then what will our record be after losing Mitchell? Will we be winless? With all due respect to those more optimistic about next year, I still don't think there are many Division I programs in the nation that would return a coaching staff after such a humiliating catastrophe. Once again, I hope I'm wrong--it's happened before.

The ultimate flag of surrender will come the day that no one publicly complains after a massively disappointing season. In fact, I'm already so dismayed by the complacency of many on here.

Back to the original point of this thread: no teams in Texas. Do I even need to explain the difference between us and all the usual suspects? Next year there will be two or three ranked Texas teams and four or five tournament teams, and we won't be one of them.

This is what troubles me the most about moving forward with Benford. Mitchell is as good as gone. So, even if, by some miracle, our coaching staff suddenly figures things out over the course of the next several months, we still will finish with fewer wins next year. I just don't see any realistic way to expect even the same performance as this season.

Out of the 124 current athletic programs that field BCS (Division IA) football in addition to men's and women's basketball, only North Texas, South Alabama, and New Mexico State have had neither a bowl appearance nor a basketball postseason win (NCAA or NIT) since 2004. South Alabama hasn't really had a chance yet in football, and they did receive an at-large NCAA bid during that span, which we never have. New Mexico State had three NCAA appearances to our two during the past eight years. Granted, this is only one way of measuring athletic department performance, and I'm kind of arbitrarily picking a year for obvious reasons. Furthermore, I'm neglecting all other sports. Still, I think the facts above show why some of us are starting to get really frustrated with futility in the major sports--especially now that it looks like we're married to a men's basketball coach who may sink the program for years to come, if he's allowed to continue.

I respect your point of view in this statement above. In truth, I used to routinely avoid making negative comments because of the obvious concerns with impugning one's own alma mater. In the past I did personally email RV as opposed to publicly voicing my concerns. However, in this particular case, I feel that the damage to our basketball program is already so severe that public criticism is necessary--anything really to pressure those with decision-making abilities to see the situation as it actually stands. Also, I think any collateral damage to our athletic department's reputation through public criticism of one particular head coach is moot because we have probably already lost all credibility with potential recruits, new donors, fans, etc. by touting our "greatest team ever" and then turning out to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Praising and supporting the return of the aforementioned head coach would be the ultimate signal of surrender by this athletic department. It would essentially be saying, "We have no standards here. Success really isn't that important to us and probably isn't even attainable, so just sit back and enjoy barely competing at a Division One level." Additionally, as I've said before, I don't think it's fair to Tony Benford to make the guy endure another season or two that will assuredly destroy his coaching career. Maybe it isn't entirely his fault that he didn't succeed this past season. In fact, that's certainly a plausibility. However, I did not see ANY evidence of progress throughout the year. Loss to a Division II team, 0-5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe/Lafayette (four of those losses by double digits, including a blowout in the first round of the SBC tournament). We were 3-14 against Division I teams with a better than 200 RPI. We didn't just fail to achieve our goals this season; we failed about as badly as it is possible to fail in almost every way imaginable, and we concluded the campaign by being obliterated by a team with a 221 RPI. And, if you look at when the losses occurred, there really isn't any realistic way to blame the injuries. So, please, can anyone honestly say that we are headed in the right direction? I mean, next year could be better (It will mostly likely be far, far worse once we lose an NBA quality player), but why should we settle for just better than terrible when we never should have been in a rebuilding process in the first place? I don't doubt that Coach Benford and his staff will do everything within their abilities "to make this program into something special." Based on the evidence I saw this past season, however, he and his staff do not have the ability to succeed at this university. If he had a record of success as a head coach elsewhere, then I would give him more time, but such a line does not exist on his resume. I REALLY hope that I'm wrong. It's possible. But it's also possible, given our history, that we will dedicate ourselves to the ideas of "hope," "next year," "potential," and "some day"...and all of this will end up sinking our basketball program to the bottom dregs of Division One. We're almost there already (RPI of 255), and another year under the same leadership and without Tony Mitchell could drop us into the 300s. If that happens, the best case scenario would be that we would then hire an amazing coach who over the course of the next 5 or 6 years would try to mend our ailing recruiting pipelines and maybe, with a lot of luck, get us to a winning record in CUSA within the next decade. Sound extreme? Take a look at football: The MAJORITY of Division One teams make a bowl game each year, and we haven't been to one in eight years. Again, I REALLY hope that I'm wrong. I'm not privy to any inside information, and if there are crucial details that I don't know that are causing me to speak out of turn, then I apologize. I'm also open to alternative opinions, and if anyone can explain to me what about this season suggests future success, I'm willing to listen. To say, "what's the harm in giving it one more year?" is a mistake, I believe, in this case. First, another horrible year would COMPLETELY erase any success we had under JJ, assuming we haven't already squandered all our reputation points from two relatively recent NCAA tournament appearances and several consecutive 20-win seasons. Second, I don't see the logic in continuing something that is almost certain to fail, at great cost, just because it could theoretically, by some miracle, work. By that rationale, why ever fire anyone? I mean, there's always a chance that any given coach will suddenly "get it" and figure out how to win. One season is not a large sample size, but it was probably the best opportunity we could have given a new head coach: returning NBA first-round draft pick caliber player, pretty much all the starters returning, regular finishes in the conference championship game, preseason rankings somewhere in the vicinity of 25-75 (some higher). If he couldn't succeed under those circumstances, then why will it work next year? Many mid-major coaches go their whole careers without having a Tony Mitchell. We could give Benford 30 more years, and he would likely not have that much talent to work with again. So, even if he tremendously improves as a coach, that might still only get us back to the same record we had this season. This isn't about "hatred." I have nothing personally against Benford, RV, or anyone else in the athletic department. In fact, I'm quite sure they are all good, decent people. I just don't want to see another 5,6,7,8, or more years go by with our athletic program having been rendered completely irrelevant even in our own state. What if we continue to finish below .500 in football? What if basketball becomes the perennial cellar dweller of CUSA? We will lose SO many thousands of alumni who will come and go without having a single iota of pride in UNT athletics. That means that we will suffer mightily on the fundraising front long after the current leaders of our school and athletic department have retired or otherwise moved on. We stand to lose so much respect in the eyes of recruits, high school coaches, donors, alumni, students, and college basketball fans in general if we accept the results of this season with anything other than outrage.

Let's consider what transpired with the Southern Miss football program this past season. First, I should point out that not only are they our future conference mates, but they are also quite historically similar to UNT as an institution. In other words, they are our slightly smaller peer. So, after one disastrous season, they recognized that they had made a mistake in hiring Ellis Johnson, and they announced his dismissal three days after their season ended. Even though they were on the hook for a 2.1 million dollar buyout, they made the only sensible choice: to not let a very successful program be destroyed by incompetence just to save short term money. Additionally, they didn't even have a clause in his contract that subtracted future coaching salaries from the buyout. We do have such a stipulation for Benford, and the buyout isn't nearly as expensive. If we are truly much less financially solvent than Southern Miss, then we need to really take a long look in the mirror and decide if it is even possible for us to succeed in major division one athletics. If we do have the financial ability but not the will to make a change, then we need to question the leadership of our athletic program.

Don't get me wrong, I do take pride in our successes in sports like soccer, etc. But . . . how many Bubas Cups have we won since joining the Sun Belt?

You know, I've been thinking about something lately: I read a lot of opinions on this board that advocate avoiding "negativity." I actually think that utter complacency, even when facing the most dramatic and shocking disappointment, is the ultimate demonstration of negativity. To me, accepting the results of this basketball season and blindly, based on zero evidence whatsoever, assuming that next year will be much better, is the definition of negativity, even defeatism. This line of thinking assumes that we have no ability to improve to even a passable level and should just smile, gladly swallow whatever poison we're given, and then say "thank you" by opening up our wallets. Positivity is declaring that we can and will be a serious, highly competitive Division I program and that any coach completely unable to accomplish this should be removed immediately.

RV has been really impressive in developing facilities and working conference realignment. And, he does deserve immense credit for hiring Johnny Jones. However, he also made possibly the worst hire in the history of UNT athletics (Dodge). Then, he hired a guy (Benford) who completely destroyed (in a single season) everything that his one crown jewel hire (JJ) accomplished. Make no mistake about it; our once proud basketball program is now completely broken and about to have substantially less talent next year. We will be rebuilding from the bottom. So, the great accomplishments of RV's one (at least in the major sports) solid hire were completely nullified in record time by yet another one of his massive mistake hires. Consequently, I don't know how you can rate his hiring record as anything but poor. McCarney may be an incomplete--but it is an incomplete because we're allowing him the time to dig out of the bottomless hole that another RV hire left us in (a hire that may have been one of the worst in all of college athletics over the past 10 or 20 years). The only way for RV to rectify his own mistake at this point would be to pull a financial rabbit out of his hat and find a way to pay the buyout and replace Benford with a coach capable of an immediate turnaround--a turnaround that shouldn't be necessary for a program that just played with its self-proclaimed "best team ever."

Sadly, ULL 84 UNT 72

I agree, but I think that FIU's recent history proves that top notch talent (by SBC standards at least) cannot overcome incompetent head coaching.

So, let me get this straight. One could summarize the writer's "OUTLOOK" as essentially saying, "the team has plenty of talent and experience, but is it enough to overcome the ineptitude of the head coach?"

. . . or that you really want the job.

Exactly. It may not matter in the great scheme of things, but there is a very small list of viable options that don't fall into the "recent I-AA/FCS" category. Now that CUSA has selected (based on proximity to metropolitan centers) quite a few schools that are either currently or recently I-AA (as you correctly note above), they may be loath to add another. Of course, the prestige levels of the two schools may really have little to do with history at this point. Who knows?

I have great respect for both ASU and ULL, especially considering what they have each accomplished in recent years. I slightly favor ULL, though I could see a case being made either way. Jonesboro is only about an hour from Memphis; Lafayette is just over two hours from New Orleans. However, CUSA may really want to retain a foothold in southern Louisiana rather than build a brand in a new territory--though LSU will always command primary attention anyway. I suppose that approach depends upon their marketing strategy, but it is also important to note that Lafayette holds a huge advantage in terms of combined metropolitan statistical population (about 550,000 to 160,000). Both are great college towns that support their teams, so local population may not be a significant factor. Regarding attendance, they have both done well in recent years, as one would assume. ASU averaged about 4,000 more in home football attendance for 2012, but ULL had about 8,000 more per home game in 2011. In men's basketball home attendance last year ULL came out ahead with 3,566 vs. 2,815 for ASU. Just for the sake of comparison, UNT and WKU averaged 4,006 and 3,993 respectively. All of that is somewhat of a wash, but I think ULL may hold one additional trump card over ASU (or UNT for that matter): they were never IAA/FCS. As far as general perception, one could consider ULL to at least APPEAR to be the more established program.

This win felt great, but it does conjure up questions about those ULM games, especially the latter one. How could we have lost--twice--by double digits to a team with an RPI of 296? My theory, based upon the complete meltdown while up by 15, is that this team has really suffered from a psychological/ego problem all year long. It doesn't seem likely that for 2/3s of the game we outplayed them, and then suddenly, well into the second half, their coach drew up a masterful game plan that just obliterated us. I'm starting to think that our team could really benefit from a visit from a sports psychologist. Actually, if memory serves me correctly, they did meet with someone before the year, so who knows? Regardless, I have to think that last night may go a long way in rebuilding some lost confidence.

After really delving way into the tiebreaking procedures, I'm pretty sure that FAU will ultimately hold the advantage over ULL even if they lose to FIU and ULL beats ULM on Saturday. Thus, we will be playing ULL no matter what.

Because Troy lost tonight, they can only tie us if they win Saturday, and we hold the tiebreaker with the sweep. Thus, we are the 9 seed. The winner of the 8 vs. 9 game will play MTSU in the second round.