Greendylan

Repeating the words "terrible take" doesn't actually change the substance of the discussion. Again, seeding matters. Getting guys back (who may not even be 100% when they get back) just in time for the conference tournament may be too late. Having key guys out at a bad time can take you out of contention. If you want to say that hypothetically we would currently be contenders if we hadn't had these injuries, then I would agree with you. But, this current team does not seem headed for a high enough seed to have a realistic shot in the AAC tournament. Who knows? Maybe we'll get guys back way earlier than expected, and that could change everything.

1. I don't think there's anything inherently illogical about the sentiment that seeding in conference tournaments matters. When you don't get the advantage of a double bye and thus have to play more games, while also not having the chance of upsets allowing you to avoid the best teams, that's a huge disadvantage. Look, when healthy, I think we have as good of a chance as anyone to win the AAC. We have a great roster and a great coach, and they have a tough style of play that has almost let them sneak out some big wins despite the absence of multiple starters. But, I just don't think that any team in the AAC is good enough to win the conference tournament from the 7 seed or lower, which is where our current trajectory suggests we will be at the end of the regular season. I should have more clearly emphasized from the start that my frustration is with the really unfortunate luck of the injuries during a critical stretch--not an indictment of the program as a whole or something like that. 2. I'm not disagreeing with the point that "injuries make a huge difference." In fact, that's exactly my point, which is why I also said the following:

Oh, I completely agree, but this seems to be the roster we have to work with for the foreseeable future. The odds of any team winning the tournament from the 7-9 seed (or somewhere around there) is extremely low, even if we do get guys back then. It's no one's fault...just the present reality.

We've played 6 games against the top 5 teams in the conference and have won 1 of those games. 6 games is statistically significant to say we are not among those top teams. Could be a different story with a healthier roster, but at this point it is what it is, sadly.

Sadly, this is not going to be a "wait until the conference tournament" kind of year. I think it's safe to say at this point that we are no longer contenders. Injuries may have a lot to do with that, but that's just where we are one way or another, which is middle of the pack.

You do have a point. Spelling rarely overshadows the quality of one's content. Having said that, it does, in some cases, affect credibility--makes it seem like there wasn't a lot of thought/fact checking involved (whether that's the case or not) before spewing forth a post. Also (and I'll acknowledge here that this is probably an exaggerated concern), I sometimes wonder if our players question how serious our fanbase really is when they peruse this site and see that even the most dedicated fans aren't sure of our star players' names. Not trying to call anyone out...typos happen to all of us on occasion. Just some random thoughts here...

Or . . . maybe trying to help the man land an NIL sponsorship?

It's also worth mentioning that out of the 59 D1 men's basketball games played last night (including a PAC-12 game featuring a top-10 team), North Texas had the highest attendance.

I'll just add to this that the rapid development of Edwards (since he's been brought up quite a lot in this thread) has been one of the biggest reasons NT is near the top of the AAC standings right now. He was forced into the starting lineup due to injury (unlike TP who spent his whole first season out of JC as the 6th man), and he's responded well to that pressure.

Interesting... I tend to think that an AQ emerging from the AAC would have necessarily earned a couple impressive wins in the conference tournament and would end up as at least a 12-seed. Of course upsets could derail that. And, I'm assuming that a contender wins it all--not some surprise from the bottom half of the conference.

I would hardly call either of them lemons. We were fortunate to get Rogers, and I will be ecstatic if we land Morris.

I have no idea how the season will turn out in the end with months to go, but as of right now, this does not feel like a team that is progressing.

Sure, there were questions about how well Harris would bounce back from his injuries, but he was the CUSA MVP last year and led his team to a conference championship. He got a six figure NIL deal to stay in San Antonio, and he finished this season as a 1st team AAC all-conference QB. He was and is a star college QB and could have made good money somewhere else, even if that amount would have been somewhat reduced due to injury history. Rogers may very well have a higher market value this off-season than Harris did last year, but I think it still stands as an apt example of a local NIL collective deciding that it's really important to keep their QB for one more year.

I don't know if it's fair to call this a generation-specific issue. There are a lot of reasons for players to enter the portal, so without citing data, should we assume that leaving "because things don't go their way" is the dominant factor? If you were to use North Texas as an example, it seems that the vast majority of our players transferring out (according to sources with inside knowledge) were asked/encouraged to do so by the coaching staff. Sure, they could just defy the urging of their own coaches and try to work harder or something, but those same coaches hold the power to pull their scholarships, if they so choose. It would be risky/foolish not to take their suggestion. In the case of star players choosing to leave of their own volition, they are usually being offered massive NIL increases. I hate to lose those guys, but some of them have family obligations or other reasons why they can't in good conscience turn down . . .oh, let's say $150,000 to play football for a year elsewhere vs. maybe just a few thousand to stay. I highly doubt that previous generations would be any more likely to choose having their family live in poverty with that kind of money on the table. Are there exceptions to my examples, where someone bolts for little or no significant pay raise or leaves for money despite having plenty already? Sure, of course. But, I still believe those exceptions could be found in any generation. Also, one could further make the case that coaches of ALL generations are just as likely to take off for a money grab despite having committed to whatever length contract.

Yes, exactly. Or, to put it another way, there is no such thing as a rebuilding year anymore. Every season is a one-off, and if you end up 5-7 (or worse) then the coaching staff just simply lost that year. They aren't ever "building" toward anything in the future. The good news is that you get to try again the next season with a new roll of the dice and an almost entirely new roster. Having a good system (on both sides of the ball) is important--in some ways that's the ONLY thing coaches are paid for nowadays, as developing "culture" is no longer relevant, and recruiting is based on the strength of NIL collectives). But, having said that, there is zero benefit in developing a system that cannot be effectively and fully implemented between spring practice and the following August. (I'm looking at you, 3-3-5!) If it takes players you don't have on your roster to run it, then why are you wasting everyone's time teaching it to a group of players who can't do it effectively, won't be able to have a successful season with it, and won't be around next season to continue it? I do think the various NT NIL collectives should marshall their resources and at least make a play at countering the massive offers coming at Rogers. I know they probably can't afford to pay him market value without blowing all the money needed to pay a whole host of other players. But, let's at least try to make him a fair offer--like UTSA did to keep Harris after last season. QB is so important to this offense that I shudder to think of how badly this season could have gone if we hadn't found the right guy. Letting him walk without a fight is very risky...

Tulsa: A Quick Look *Their offense has players who are live human beings with a pulse *Thus, the North Texas defense will give up a TD on just about every drive

We played two games against solid power conference opponents on neutral territory--teams that are expected to finish in the bottom half of their respective conferences, but respectable opponents nonetheless. They were both pretty close to being toss-ups, going into them, so losing both really, really sucks. I still am generally optimistic about the season, but this was a massive swing and a miss. The rest of our schedule is filled with teams that either are going to be extremely difficult to beat or teams that won't really move the needle much, win or lose. Disclaimer: I'm probably placing too much psychic weight on each basketball game, due to our football program being in disarray...

I guess it's likely we'll play Towson in the last place game. Really hope we can salvage something out of this.

If Rogers leads the offense to a TD on every single drive, we will be in the game!!

...and these are just the raw numbers. The real story is far worse since we've only played teams not known for their offense. If we had played good teams with high-powered passing attacks or something like that, then we would likely be averaging more than a 100 yards per game worse than every single other team. That's why I used the term "historically bad" in another thread. That is not meant as hyperbole.

I'm not sure "growing pains" is an accurate description of what we're experiencing. It shouldn't require NCAA-record-book levels of yardage surrendered to go through a shift in philosophy. If it does, then we have to ask if that change was an epic mistake.

Whether or not it's a bit, I'll say this about the "entertainment" value of this game: the only reason it was a back and forth game was because we have a historically bad defense that allowed one of the most pedestrian offenses in all of D1 football to go wild and rack up points/yards that they probably won't replicate all season. Being so inept on one side of the ball that we stumble into a dogfight with a really bad team that we blew out the past two years isn't entertaining to me. To be clear, there are entertaining close losses where two great teams show what they can do and trade swings and your team just falls short in the end. This was nowhere near what happened last night.

The total yardage in the Cal game was 600+ to roughly 200. Those are the type of numbers you see when a top-10 team plays an FCS school. Since Cal is likely not even close to being in the top-10, then one could extrapolate some pretty bleak notions about where NT sits at present. BUT . . . it was just one game with a new system on both sides of the ball. FIU is probably close to the bottom 10 in all of FBS. If we lose or win a very close game, then it will confirm that the Cal performance was no anomaly. For the record, I do think we'll show some substantial improvement.

Totally agree. There's a lot that we need to fix off the field...portal strategy, NIL transactions, etc. But, regardless, there was also an in-game coaching failure, considering we went from generally competitive (though losing) in the first half to disaster in the second half. One coaching staff made the right chess moves at halftime and the other was stumped. Not a good sign, but I don't want to be too harsh about that particular point after just one game. We'll see if this was an anomaly or the start of a trend...

I should also point out that it's OK, as others have pointed out, that we are a basketball school. We can't afford to get enough players through NIL for a full football roster, but basketball is a little different. That's simply the economic reality...