Greendylan

We will most likely go 0-2 in Jamaica, but if we are to get a win, this will be it. The Utah State game is going to be ugly.

Rice has been pretty competitive in their home games but just hasn't quite come up with a win, which is partially due to the level of competition. They've lost at home to Baylor by 8, Louisiana Tech by 3 (in OT), Southern Miss by 14, and Marshall by 13. They also lost at home to Texas and Wake Forest by larger margins way back in September, but I don't think those games are particularly relevant to this discussion. I would imagine that Rice feels like they've played fairly well against teams that are WAY better than North Texas and that this is a prime opportunity to finally break through with a win, as it is their last home game. Meanwhile, we are winless on the road and seem to be headed the wrong direction. Other than Cal, in every other road game we've significantly underperformed vs. the point spread. I want to be optimistic, but I'm really having a hard time viewing this as anything other than a tossup--at best. I tend to think the team that comes out more fired up and desperate to end their season on a high note will win, and I'm not so sure that's going to be North Texas.

The way things are looking, we may not reach 30 points against Utah State.

Regardless, this is embarrassing and we may need to recognize that we are pretty helpless outside of Fine. Without him, we may just be a bottom ten team.

He's looked pretty checked out today.

For those who believe we will be just fine next year with a new QB, here's a preview. This is a Todd Dodge team with Mason Fine. Without Fine, well . . . exhibit A. 3 wins should be the expectation next year, and realistically it could be worse.

One truth that I have had confirmed again and again is that Littrell's UNT simply does not convert 4th and short and does not stop teams from converting on 4th and short. It's pretty much a guarantee every time.

We aren't playing well, and deserve to be behind, but the number of holding/block in the back calls that Louisiana Tech blatantly gets away with is absolutely mind blowing.

Seems optimistic. To put it in perspective, those are about the same odds that they gave Charlotte against us.

Woah, woah, woah... I think Holtz is a class act and a credit to the conference. I didn't mean in any way to imply that he, or any other coaches, were being "disrespectful" in an offensive, personal sense. I meant "respect" in an athletic competition context--as in "the safeties were creeping up since they didn't respect the QB's deep ball." It's not an inappropriate, hateful remark but rather an observation of one's competitive advantage in some area against an opponent.

"Prison GMG is no fairy-tale world.”

Here's a simple (and fairly obvious) way of putting it: Our offense is good, but it isn't as consistently good as our defense is consistently bad. Thus, pick whatever score total you think we are capable of reaching against a strong, complete team like Louisiana Tech (maybe mid-30s to low-40s at best), and then keep in mind that even if we get to that amount, LT will be able to pretty much name whatever point total they need to reach against us to comfortably coast to a 3-4 score win.

There's a certain degree of gamesmanship in those preseason picks. But, it also does speak to just how highly they think of Fine. Also, there's this: https://athlonsports.com/college-football/conference-usa-coaches-talk-anonymously-about-conference-foes-2019

Yeah, honestly over the course of the past couple seasons, the theme that I have picked up on over and over from CUSA coaches (when you look beyond the obligatory "coach speak") is that they do not respect North Texas. They respect Mason Fine, but they do not think the rest of the team has any talent that they need to worry about. Even last year, I kind of got that impression, and I suspect that they're seeing this year as confirmation of their talent assessment. I don't agree with that sentiment, and I hope our players are noticing.

That's exactly what I thought. I had been waiting all season to see play calling that actually complemented our passing game rather than trying to force it to overcome its own weaknesses.

You get extra practice time and more exposure for your program when you play in a bowl game. Even in the midst of a disappointing season, we could still gain a lot from a bowl appearance. If Fine is healthy, we are probably looking at 3-4 more wins. If he is either out or nowhere near 100%, then sadly I think we're facing 0-2 more wins. This team, as currently constructed, is not a sure bet to beat any team on our schedule, if we are playing with an unproven QB. With Siggers also being doubtful, we are running out of playmakers on offense.

This isn't going to be close.

Yeah, someone needs to be thoroughly groomed to be the QB next year. I wouldn't give up on Aune being that guy, but someone, anyone (other than Fine) has got to get meaningful minutes this season--at least on occasion. A couple handoffs at the end of a game now and then accomplish nothing. There's going to be some dropoff in QB play from this season to next no matter what we do, but if we don't at least have average QB performance next year, then we're probably looking at around a 3 win season.

I really think that Rice and UTEP are headed the right direction and might cause some headaches for the CUSA contenders this season.

Here's the way I see it: This year is phase one of a rebuilding process (defense). Next year will be phase two (offense). The year after that MAY be (if a really good QB emerges) the point when we're back to being as talented as we were last season (2018). And, in some important ways, we have already commenced the offense's rebuilding process since Guyton/Bussey are gone and we're trying things out with a new OC who has not yet figured out how to harness Fine's talent.

Before the season began, that would have seemed a game or two low to me. As of right now, that would be a relief. Unless we pull off an upset at Southern Miss, we will fall to 2-4. How often does a team start 2-4 and then finish with 6 straight wins? 7-5 is probably the ceiling of realistic outcomes.

I'm going to partially agree with you. Yes, the top two teams in CUSA often end up matched against the top two teams from the MAC/Sun Belt. Winning the CUSA championship does not necessarily mean playing a ranked AAC team or a P5 opponent or anything like that--although those are within the realm of possibility. I would also agree that the MAC may not produce any type of top-tier champion this year and is probably pretty much the equivalent of CUSA. However, the Sun Belt has at least two teams that I sadly think would destroy this North Texas team right now. I'm only referring to current status, though, as we might improve considerably throughout the season. Two questions: 1. If we play a 6/7-win team that has finished 3rd/4th/5th place in the MAC (or something equivalent) in a bowl game and win, does that constitute a major step forward as a program? 2. Is this North Texas team capable of beating (or even staying competitive against) an 8-10 win team from any other conference? I'm asking not to be rhetorical but because I honestly don't know. My gut tells me that this is probably just not our year and that we should be very relieved just to get to 6 wins and a bowl game of any sort, if that happens. I just hope we are able to develop the backup QBs this year and catch up to SMU in the off-season transfer market battle, because those are really our only possibilities to avoid a big drop off next year.

A few points: I would absolutely love to win CUSA and go on a winning streak while doing so. Having said that, imagine what that would do to solidify CUSA's image of being an absolutely terrible conference. Also, unless we REALLY improve throughout the season, we would, as conference champions, likely be headed to a bowl game to play a top-level G5 team, which means we would almost certainly be blown out by 30ish points. In reality, I think a little more complete team will emerge in CUSA, and North Texas will struggle to win 6 games. Next year will probably be worse as we'll really be in the midst of a rebuilding project. Hopefully I'm wrong about everything and we'll prove ourselves on the road against a solid Southern Miss team.

Well, we can absolutely destroy the terrible teams. Now we need to learn to beat the mediocre teams. We have regressed quite a bit since last season.