Arkstfan

Hawaii has contemplated independence for years. They can pull it off in football and there is some political pressure to go that route but the problem is all the other sports. WCC isn't likely to invite them because they don't fit the profile and the Big West members cannot afford to invite them because they cannot afford the travel in all sports without subsidy. The WAC may end up sticking at 8 for the time being simply because Montana is likely to turn down an invite. Cal Davis and Cal Poly lack the funds to expand their stadiums and there is some doubt whether Sacramento State has the funds to operate at that level. If the WAC had its druthers, they would take Davis and Montana right now. That may open the door for Texas State but you have to wonder how they are going to make it work. Buy-in last time was $750,000 over three years and using the same accounting method, Texas State would be looking at a million dollar buy-in. Texas State from what I've gathered wants desperately into the Sun Belt and views the WAC as their back-up if they cannot get in. From what I have heard, both Texas State and UTSA have approached the WAC and the reception has not been warm but the WAC understands that if something doesn't break they are going to end up feeling pressured to add Texas State. The problem is that Hawaii, Fresno, San Jose State, Idaho, and Nevada do not want a Texas school, especially an FCS. I don't know where USU is in the mix but NMSU and La.Tech would be the only likely support. Texas State will be the measure of how desperate the WAC is. If they believe another raid is imminent and none of their preferred choices are available they will take Texas State.

Look a Nebraska. If you look at DMA's no way the Big 10 wants them. But the Big 10 understands that people in Chicago, LA, NY, and Miami who are football fans are likely to watch Nebraska if the game is available.

If the Pac-10 takes six and the Big 10 takes one or two, they are under six members. They lose the autobids and the basketball money is divided among the schools that earned it rather than the league. The full Big XII doesn't earn enough money to get Arkansas, a crippled Big XII certainly wouldn't.

Think it was $120,000.

Omaha paper reporting that the schools have until Sunday to accept. Stanford has no problems with Texas. Stanford is going to have huge problems with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and to a lesser degree OU.

Here is where I'm at on it all after way too much time spent working contacts across multiple leagues. My Big 10 contact says the league has known about this for a few days and will likely accelerate their expansion. Big 10 may be done by a week from Friday (June 18). The stance has changed from courting Notre Dame to giving them an ultimatum. The Irish don't respond well to those but the odds are they get royally hosed if they fail to join. If Notre Dame says no, Big 10 probably takes Nebraska and Missouri with Rutgers but there is some sentiment to pursue Maryland, Duke, and North Carolina instead of Rutgers. If Notre Dame joins, its Nebraska, Missouri and possibly Rutgers and Syracuse. SEC is going to make a last play for Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Texas is a almost assuredly a definite no. Oklahoma probably is as well. TAMU feels they are being bullied into the Pac-10 and not being treated as an equal. The question is are they willing to ditch Texas, Texas Tech, and OU over mashed feelings. If it were the AD's call probably yes, but I think the academics and politics of it all lean toward TAMU going along. SEC is going to have a serious fight over expanding. They are looking at a Duke/UNC combo, UVA/VPI combo, and considering Florida State, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Miami. If TAMU comes along, Duke/UNC, Florida State is the probable preference. If TAMU goes SEC, Pac-10 will try to get Kansas alone and might fall back to Utah. Big XII is probably left with Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Iowa State. There will be an attempt by MWC to grab all four. Big East will make a play as well. Most likely the four try start a new conference with TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, Louisville and Cincinnati. If they choose to go to 14 or 16, they probably look at New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, BYU, Utah, UTEP, Tulane and outside shot of Southern Miss. ACC is left with 8 and Big East is at 4 to 6, probably 4. The two consolidate into a 12 team league, and probably add Temple and UCF. Less likely but still possible, ECU comes in. If Miami is gone FAU or FIU might sneak in but the thinking is Miami is left out. 16th spot is between Marshall and UAB if they go to 16 to keep up with everyone else. CUSA at this point is expected to lose at least six, maybe 8. If they lose 8, it is game over. If they lose six they retain their units but have to immediately add two just to remain an FBS league. Sun Belt likely absorbs CUSA probably taking CUSA name, if they are at 6 the units stay with the league, if they are at 4 they are gone. If CUSA is at 6, All Sun Belt football with possible exception of either USA or ULM goes into CUSA along with La.Tech. WAC is at 7 MWC is at as many as 9 and as few 5. If MWC is at 7 or 9 they take Fresno, Nevada, Hawaii, and think about Idaho, NMSU, USU, and SJSU and may or may not take all or some. If they are at 5 they are absorbed by the WAC and only debate is whether to use the MWC name or WAC name. Most likely no impact at all on the MAC other than losing football only member Temple. If the pace holds with rapid movements, by July 1, we are reading articles about this being the last season of 11 FBS conferences before going to an 8 conference alignment.

They were in during our first go-round with the Big West. SJSU is also the answer to this trivia question. Name the only FBS team Arkansas State has hosted as a money game. They came to Little Rock in 2002 for a guarantee and no return game.

Financially it would be an outstanding move for the Sun Belt. Based on current numbers the Sun Belt moves out of the 4/5 slot in BCS non-AQ revenue to #3 and the WAC falls from #2 to #4.

Academics absolutely matter when discussing the Big 10. Notre Dame is the only non-AAU school the Big 10 would consider. Recent information indicates that the Big 10 Network derives more income from advertising than subscribers. That's highly unusual for a cable net. Nebraska draws an audience. Depending on who you believe Nebraska football is either the highest grossing or second highest grossing school for PPV revenue. More people will plunk down $30 to watch Nebraska beat a Sun Belt school than will put money down for a similar Auburn or TAMU game. That means those people will bug the ever lovin' crap out of their cable provider for Big 10 Net and they will watch the games helping generate higher ratings and higher ad rates.

What US News thinks of Nebraska academics isn't nearly as important as what the other schools think of Nebraska academics. Nebraska is a member of the Association of American Universities. There are only 63 schools that have met their elite standards and only 61 are in the US. Of that 61 only 37 play FBS football. Georgia Tech just got in this year, Rice not until 1985. AAU members account for 6% of all undergrad students but 53% of all doctorates awarded. Nebraska's academics are just fine for the Big 10.

From the 1990 Final Four through last season: The "AQ" 73 schools are 21% of Division but: They have won 19 of the 20 titles (95%) The have filled 37 of the 40 appearances in the title game (92.5%) [counts Memphis who vacated their appearance due to violations] The AQ has filled 71 of the 80 slots in the Final Four (88.75%) [counts Louisville, Marquette, and Cincinnati who appeared on behalf of CUSA twice and Great Midwest once as non-AQ, counts Memphis, UMass, and Ohio State who vacated appearances due to violations]

We had the 150 rule before and the coaches nearly dehydrated from crying about it and it ended up getting repealed despite WORKING. I'd be happy if they gave each school the three year averaging ranking of schools and tell them the non-conference slate has to average to 100. You've got 13 games to fill. If you want to play #340, then the remaining 12 games those teams better average out to 80.

Reminds me of 1999. The teams loaded with young 'uns ripped the field up leaving a heavily upperclassman ASU to face a young WKU. ASU won that one. ASU, FAU, and USA are all very young and could be big threats. WKU has had ASU's number so I think WKU wins in the clutch.

Even with the BCS deal (which requires them to be ranked higher than non-AQ champs must be ranked to have a shot), their cut of the money plus TV generates less income than Vanderbilt receives for being a punching bag.

Hey it was worth it for the "beat us three times consecutively comment"

Pitt won't make the Big 10. It brings no new revenue for the Big 10 Network and little new revenue from Emperor Disney. I keep thinking that unless CU is ready to move, the Pac-10 expansion falls apart and I'm not totally convinced the Pac-10 is willing to add Utah though they fit the profile of the northern schools in many ways.

Looks like it's falling together like I thought.

If that's the worst spelling error I make today it will be one of the best days ever.

I think UNT wins out and finishes 13-5. MT has three of four on the road and is probably looking at 12-6. ASU probably drops 2 of @ULL, WKU at home and Troy at home (not worried about UNO at home) for a 12-6 record.

I think UNT has the inside track to take the top seed and yet not a lot of chatter.

You know USM has an odd fan base, some really, really super people and then there is a crazed fringe that thinks they have been denied their rightful place in the top four of the SEC and is really hard to deal with and almost no one in-between.

Stumbled on this while trying to find something in the archive. Couldn't resist quoting. I apologize and will move on now.

I don't think Texas will move (reason later) but here is why they'd be nuts to not consider it. First, it is a guaranteed increase in revenue of roughly $10 million if Big 10 revenue grows the 9% needed to not change the distribution. In truth more than that. The Big 10 Network charges a reported 10 cents per month to cable and a satellite providers in non-Big 10 markets per household. There are roughly 8 million TV households in Texas, roughly half (very old numbers) have cable or satellite so that's 4 million. Figure half have Big 10 Net (probably high percentage wise but makes up for old numbers regarding cable penetration), so that is 2 million. That means Big 10 Net makes about $200,000 a month or $1.2 million a year from subscribers in Texas without selling any ads. If they add a team in Texas, the rate goes to a reported $1 per month. That takes annual revenue to $12 million per year in Texas without adding any subscribers. If there is just a 25% increase in the number of subscribers that revenue now goes up to $15 million per year. Viewership also rises so do ad prices. Remember also that Texas represents the bulk of the value of the Big XII tv contract. The Big XII receives a reported $60 million per year. Conservatively I'd estimate that Texas represents $15 million to $20 million of that when it was negotiated and is worth easily double that (remember Vandy's share of the SEC contract is $17 million). Now why won't they go? Politics. In 1990 when Arkansas announced its departure, Texas was given a no leave mandate. It took a few years to soften it up into a partial leave and it required setting the stage for that. A bolt out of the blue won't cut it. But Texas also go concessions from the SWC to keep it patched together. If you are AD at Iowa State you might not like the idea of giving up part of your revenue in a new revenue sharing scheme that provides greater reward to schools for BCS appearances, NCAA appearances, and television appearances but the reduction in income pales in comparison to losing key home games and losing access to the best TV opportunities when you are playing well. Texas is going to hold the Big 12 hostage and take a larger cut of the pie. It will narrow their league revenue gap compared to Ohio State and Alabama and let them keep their local schedule. Texas Tech may not like having their check look like what Louisiville is getting from the Big East but its better than backfilling with MWC schools.

Why would Arkansas, Iowa, or Illinois leave one of the two wealthiest conferences to move to a league that makes significantly less money?

Boise is a small TV market, it only has 30,000 more households for TV purposes than Lafayette, it is less than half the size of the Tulsa TV market. The Pac-10 has hired Weinberg the former Big XII commissioner who was running the Big 10 Network. I would suspect they want to add their own TV network. Denver is the #16 market so they will go hard after CU. I'm not sure they would accept. I don't think there is any chance they will take BYU. The backlash from students at the 8 west coast schools would be intense. The honor code makes any display of affection among homosexuals grounds for expulsion. Utah is probably a lock to get in. The question left if CU says no is do they go with UNLV (close and a decent TV market) or Colorado State in hope of getting some traction in Denver or do they just say forget about it.