Arkstfan

If you recall there was a lot of talk before the Fiesta Bowl that Boise wasn't worthy of being on the field with OU.

Several years ago Harvard was in the top 40 without beating a scholarship team. I don't regard the ratings very highly.

There are two sets of numbers. The announced which go on the form you see from the NCAA. Then there are the certified numbers which the NCAA will not release. Both sets are fudged depending on need. KC Star did an FOI and found Kansas or KState was over announcing by a wide factor the numbers we see. I know from what I hear there are some schools that announce under 15,000 but certify a higher number. If you donate $100 it is recorded as purchasing 10 or 20 tickets which are then recorded as a face value donation to the booster club. The Tampa Tribune investigated USF as they were transitioning and found they used that method after they discovered turnstile counts were about a third of reported attendance. Some of you may recall when the new rules were adopted that I said no school that wants to stay and can afford to stay will ever be kicked out. Until Eastern Michigan is booted I will stand by that. As noted above in all of the NCAA divisional membership is an institutional choice. You choose whether to offer athletic aid and how much and how many sports to sponsor. Those decisions choose your your affiliation for you. Except in FBS football.

When every member except Hawaii is a former Big West football member how do you not compare it to the Big West? Tech jury is out with the new coach but they have not been closer than 3 games back in the conference race since 2005. The three Belt schools that moved to the WAC have never finished closer than 4 games back despite two of them gaining regional opponents.

Has it occurred to anyone that when a dreadful team loses to a good team they don't get hurt so bad in rankings? SJSU beat an FCS and 10 loss NMSU for their only wins. They lost 4 games by five or more TD's. They lost to Sagarin #5 Boise # 20 USC #24 Utah and #29 Stanford. Sagarin says they were 138 and UNT 160. UNT lost one game by 5 TDs and played one top 30 team #1 Alabama and had two FBS wins. Personally I don't believe SJSU was better. Their 35 pt loss to a 4-8 WAC team rated 20 spots below MT and 26 below Troy doesn't impress me. Without games like #5 Boise to prop up their rating, they fall in the ratings.

2008 Boise finished 9th in the BCS standings and was passed over and there was little outcry because "they play in a weak conference". That has been the mantra each time for the WAC. The Busters have tended to end up higher in the computers than the human polls because the computers don't deal well with undefeated teams. See undefeated Harvard that made the top 40 a few years ago ranking well ahead of Sun Belt champ UNT. Harvard didn't play a single team that offered scholarships in football but they were top 40.

If Tech joins the WAC is 5th out of 5 in BCS payout and the ability to get a fourth or fifth bowl arises for the Sun Belt. Right now we are at a maximum allowed.

Four leagues of 16 is a freakin pipe dream cooked up by people who spend too much time wanting to organize stuff. In 1990 we were told 12 with a title game was the wave of the future. It has taken 20 years for the Pac-10 and Big 10 (who started all this by inviting Penn State) to add 12th teams. Think about it for a minute. What four schools can the Pac-10 add to get to 16 and still be more profitable? No deal works unless it includes Texas. You can't graft in four MWC schools and the numbers work. It's an impossibility. So let's say Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Mizzou go to the Pac-10 (you've added three basically irrelevant teams but that's OK because Texas needs them for travel relief). OK. Big 10 gets Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, you've added three irrelevant teams for little reason, one to balance ND makes sense, so let's go with something that brings VALUE and Big 10 adds Notre Dame, Maryland, Duke, and North Carolina. SEC adds TAMU, OU, Florida State and say Virginia Tech. Something leaps out at you. The ACC and Big East that are left... suck. Yeah Clemson draws good crowds but outside of them not a single school left can put 70,000 people in the stands. Clemson and BYU are the only two schools left in the FBS universe that draw 60,000+ not sitting in one of those three leagues.The fourth league is no more important than the 5th Beatle.

MWC wasn't going to qualify WITH Utah and Boise State. Their plan was to appeal arguing that they got close. I think leagues are fool-hardy if they make plans based on the BCS. The money doesn't work. Last year the BCS distributed $142 million (that will rise to around $180 million this year). Five games, ten participants. Logic says $14.2 million per team. But they skim some for FCS, the non-AQ, Notre Dame and Army. Last year the non-AQ picked up an extra $4.5 million because Boise was selected at-large. Last year non-AQ took $24 million, Notre Dame $1.5 million, Army and Navy $100,000 each, and FCS $1.8 million for a grand total of $27.5 million (would have been $23 million if Boise had been passed over). The BCS leagues split $115.2 million, SEC and Big 10 took $22.2 and the other four took $17.7 The BCS revenue system works by screwing an extra team from a league and screwing the team(s) from the non-AQ. Having second teams only produced $4.5 million each for the SEC and Big 10. The Big XII, ACC, Big East, and Pac-10 all got over-paid. Now when it comes time to set around the table and light the cigars IF and it's a huge IF, they keep the current five game arrangement starting 2014 the money will likely look different. The minimum dollars to the AQ (as a percentage) will fall. More likely what will happen is the BCS title game will continue to rotate but that will be the only BCS game. The SEC and Big 10 and the Pac-10 can make more money negotiating to send their top teams to the Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, and Rose with only #1 and #2 made available for the BCS. If the presidents will give in, we will see Plus One. The bowls will play out with everyone negotiating their own bowl deals and the top two on Jan 2. going to the BCS championship game. Using dollars for the next BCS cycle that single game will be worth about $72 million. The two participating schools would probably get about $18 million each and the remaining $32 million would be distributed the FBS leagues, FCS, Notre Dame, and Army.

Hawaii has contemplated independence for years. They can pull it off in football and there is some political pressure to go that route but the problem is all the other sports. WCC isn't likely to invite them because they don't fit the profile and the Big West members cannot afford to invite them because they cannot afford the travel in all sports without subsidy. The WAC may end up sticking at 8 for the time being simply because Montana is likely to turn down an invite. Cal Davis and Cal Poly lack the funds to expand their stadiums and there is some doubt whether Sacramento State has the funds to operate at that level. If the WAC had its druthers, they would take Davis and Montana right now. That may open the door for Texas State but you have to wonder how they are going to make it work. Buy-in last time was $750,000 over three years and using the same accounting method, Texas State would be looking at a million dollar buy-in. Texas State from what I've gathered wants desperately into the Sun Belt and views the WAC as their back-up if they cannot get in. From what I have heard, both Texas State and UTSA have approached the WAC and the reception has not been warm but the WAC understands that if something doesn't break they are going to end up feeling pressured to add Texas State. The problem is that Hawaii, Fresno, San Jose State, Idaho, and Nevada do not want a Texas school, especially an FCS. I don't know where USU is in the mix but NMSU and La.Tech would be the only likely support. Texas State will be the measure of how desperate the WAC is. If they believe another raid is imminent and none of their preferred choices are available they will take Texas State.

Look a Nebraska. If you look at DMA's no way the Big 10 wants them. But the Big 10 understands that people in Chicago, LA, NY, and Miami who are football fans are likely to watch Nebraska if the game is available.

If the Pac-10 takes six and the Big 10 takes one or two, they are under six members. They lose the autobids and the basketball money is divided among the schools that earned it rather than the league. The full Big XII doesn't earn enough money to get Arkansas, a crippled Big XII certainly wouldn't.

Think it was $120,000.

Omaha paper reporting that the schools have until Sunday to accept. Stanford has no problems with Texas. Stanford is going to have huge problems with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and to a lesser degree OU.

Here is where I'm at on it all after way too much time spent working contacts across multiple leagues. My Big 10 contact says the league has known about this for a few days and will likely accelerate their expansion. Big 10 may be done by a week from Friday (June 18). The stance has changed from courting Notre Dame to giving them an ultimatum. The Irish don't respond well to those but the odds are they get royally hosed if they fail to join. If Notre Dame says no, Big 10 probably takes Nebraska and Missouri with Rutgers but there is some sentiment to pursue Maryland, Duke, and North Carolina instead of Rutgers. If Notre Dame joins, its Nebraska, Missouri and possibly Rutgers and Syracuse. SEC is going to make a last play for Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Texas is a almost assuredly a definite no. Oklahoma probably is as well. TAMU feels they are being bullied into the Pac-10 and not being treated as an equal. The question is are they willing to ditch Texas, Texas Tech, and OU over mashed feelings. If it were the AD's call probably yes, but I think the academics and politics of it all lean toward TAMU going along. SEC is going to have a serious fight over expanding. They are looking at a Duke/UNC combo, UVA/VPI combo, and considering Florida State, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Miami. If TAMU comes along, Duke/UNC, Florida State is the probable preference. If TAMU goes SEC, Pac-10 will try to get Kansas alone and might fall back to Utah. Big XII is probably left with Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Iowa State. There will be an attempt by MWC to grab all four. Big East will make a play as well. Most likely the four try start a new conference with TCU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis, Louisville and Cincinnati. If they choose to go to 14 or 16, they probably look at New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, BYU, Utah, UTEP, Tulane and outside shot of Southern Miss. ACC is left with 8 and Big East is at 4 to 6, probably 4. The two consolidate into a 12 team league, and probably add Temple and UCF. Less likely but still possible, ECU comes in. If Miami is gone FAU or FIU might sneak in but the thinking is Miami is left out. 16th spot is between Marshall and UAB if they go to 16 to keep up with everyone else. CUSA at this point is expected to lose at least six, maybe 8. If they lose 8, it is game over. If they lose six they retain their units but have to immediately add two just to remain an FBS league. Sun Belt likely absorbs CUSA probably taking CUSA name, if they are at 6 the units stay with the league, if they are at 4 they are gone. If CUSA is at 6, All Sun Belt football with possible exception of either USA or ULM goes into CUSA along with La.Tech. WAC is at 7 MWC is at as many as 9 and as few 5. If MWC is at 7 or 9 they take Fresno, Nevada, Hawaii, and think about Idaho, NMSU, USU, and SJSU and may or may not take all or some. If they are at 5 they are absorbed by the WAC and only debate is whether to use the MWC name or WAC name. Most likely no impact at all on the MAC other than losing football only member Temple. If the pace holds with rapid movements, by July 1, we are reading articles about this being the last season of 11 FBS conferences before going to an 8 conference alignment.

They were in during our first go-round with the Big West. SJSU is also the answer to this trivia question. Name the only FBS team Arkansas State has hosted as a money game. They came to Little Rock in 2002 for a guarantee and no return game.

Financially it would be an outstanding move for the Sun Belt. Based on current numbers the Sun Belt moves out of the 4/5 slot in BCS non-AQ revenue to #3 and the WAC falls from #2 to #4.

Academics absolutely matter when discussing the Big 10. Notre Dame is the only non-AAU school the Big 10 would consider. Recent information indicates that the Big 10 Network derives more income from advertising than subscribers. That's highly unusual for a cable net. Nebraska draws an audience. Depending on who you believe Nebraska football is either the highest grossing or second highest grossing school for PPV revenue. More people will plunk down $30 to watch Nebraska beat a Sun Belt school than will put money down for a similar Auburn or TAMU game. That means those people will bug the ever lovin' crap out of their cable provider for Big 10 Net and they will watch the games helping generate higher ratings and higher ad rates.

What US News thinks of Nebraska academics isn't nearly as important as what the other schools think of Nebraska academics. Nebraska is a member of the Association of American Universities. There are only 63 schools that have met their elite standards and only 61 are in the US. Of that 61 only 37 play FBS football. Georgia Tech just got in this year, Rice not until 1985. AAU members account for 6% of all undergrad students but 53% of all doctorates awarded. Nebraska's academics are just fine for the Big 10.

From the 1990 Final Four through last season: The "AQ" 73 schools are 21% of Division but: They have won 19 of the 20 titles (95%) The have filled 37 of the 40 appearances in the title game (92.5%) [counts Memphis who vacated their appearance due to violations] The AQ has filled 71 of the 80 slots in the Final Four (88.75%) [counts Louisville, Marquette, and Cincinnati who appeared on behalf of CUSA twice and Great Midwest once as non-AQ, counts Memphis, UMass, and Ohio State who vacated appearances due to violations]

We had the 150 rule before and the coaches nearly dehydrated from crying about it and it ended up getting repealed despite WORKING. I'd be happy if they gave each school the three year averaging ranking of schools and tell them the non-conference slate has to average to 100. You've got 13 games to fill. If you want to play #340, then the remaining 12 games those teams better average out to 80.

Reminds me of 1999. The teams loaded with young 'uns ripped the field up leaving a heavily upperclassman ASU to face a young WKU. ASU won that one. ASU, FAU, and USA are all very young and could be big threats. WKU has had ASU's number so I think WKU wins in the clutch.

Even with the BCS deal (which requires them to be ranked higher than non-AQ champs must be ranked to have a shot), their cut of the money plus TV generates less income than Vanderbilt receives for being a punching bag.

Hey it was worth it for the "beat us three times consecutively comment"

Pitt won't make the Big 10. It brings no new revenue for the Big 10 Network and little new revenue from Emperor Disney. I keep thinking that unless CU is ready to move, the Pac-10 expansion falls apart and I'm not totally convinced the Pac-10 is willing to add Utah though they fit the profile of the northern schools in many ways.