Arkstfan

Have you read it? It is designed to screw the small conferences. Seeds 1-8 get big money and then the money drops by seed from 9 to 16, automatic bid is goofy and designed to keep the unwashed out.

ESPN and the eight day window sucks as does the 8 day window for CSS/CST (which doubly sucks until Comcast ends or loses its challenge to new FCC rules that would force them to make CSS available to Dish, Direct, ATT and Verizon). It's a tough situation for athletic departments. Do you put TBA and announce the time 8 days out or do you list your scheduled time and risk having to get the word out later that the time has changed. None of it is done for the ticket buying fans.

Indiana is terrible. They are 1-6 after firing their coach who went 5-7 last year. They weren't good last year. On the way to 5-7 they beat a 4-8 ArkSt team by 2 and and a 2-10 WKU by 17. My point was UNT had less to sell to recruits during past recruiting classes other than the most recent, because UNT had a harder sell to convice recruits that the staff in place was capable of winning. You played Clemson even for a half in the opener last year. Clemson finished 6-7 last year, sure they are ranked this year, but they didn't sniff the polls last year and won by 25. ASU played its open against eventual national champion Auburn as close as Arkansas, Ole Miss and South Carolina did and it was a two score game halfway through the third quarter. Auburn won by 26. We lost our openers by an average of 25.5 points but I think a 26 point loss to an eventual 14-0 team carries more style points than a 25 point loss to an eventual 6-7 team. Playing the ifs and buts game. Last year Arkansas State beat ULM UNT, FAU, and MTSU (televised rout). For the BUT games: @Indiana determined on missed FG on next to last possession. @Louisiana Aplin picked off at ULL 17 on drive that could have tied or given ASU the win. @Troy goes 67 yards in 28 seconds to take the lead and the win with 17 seconds left. Western KY the Red Wolves leading by 7 with 45 seconds left face 4th down at the WKU 49. Bad snap to the punter gives WKU the ball at the ASU 22. They tie, ASU scores on first play of OT, WKU answers and runs trick play for 2 and the win. Adding intrigue, players had discussed the week before the game that a loss ends Roberts time at ASU. @FIU Hilton scores in final two minutes and FIU converts two-point conversion for 7 point win Arkansas State was that close to going 9-3 last year. UNT had a unique situation last year. You got to replace a coach the players apparently had lost confidence in, they got a semi-fresh start and lost at home by 8 to a team ASU lost to on the road by 7 without a semi-fresh start. You beat MTSU by 6 in Smurfland we beat them the week before by 26 in Jonesboro. Your semi-fresh start got you a 12 point loss in Monroe, ASU beat them by 14 in Jonesboro with the same-old-same-old. ASU returned its record-breaking QB and three receivers who had five TD receptions and added Josh Jarboe at receiver. ASU returned 10 starters on defense. ASU placed 4 on the Phil Steele pre-season Sun Belt first team, UNT placed 2 if you count the kicker. ASU 5 on the second team, UNT 4 if you count second team kick returner. ASU 5 on his 3rd team, UNT 3. The Sun Belt named five ASU players all-conference compared to two for UNT. Phil Steele and the league coaches didn't agree with the assertion that UNT handed McCarney enough talent to be immediately competitive. One last point. Sure as you say ASU and ULL's players "were all recruited at the SUN BELT LEVEL." But ASU recruited two classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. ULL recruited three classes to that level coming off 6-6 seasons. UNT recruited 5 classes coming off nothing better than three wins. Surely you think that makes a difference in generating recruit interest.

What did the kid expect? It is hard for privates to draw well in football. Most don't turn out huge numbers of alums, a lot tend to leave the area after graduation, the casual fan tends to not feel any tie to those schools because they are so often seen to be snobbish. I've not checked the numbers but I suspect the worst drawing team in the SEC is the only private school. Probably the case in the Big XII, pretty sure that is the case in the Big 10. I think UAB is the only public that gives the privates a run for the worst attendance title in C-USA. I know the privates drag the bottom in the ACC. BYU led the MWC in attendance before they left but they are a special case being the most popular school in a state with no NFL presence. USC usually leads the Pac-10 but they are a very large school with a great winning history in the second largest city in the country and no NFL team. Notre Dame is well Notre Dame. Of the top 30 schools in attendance USC, Notre Dame, and BYU are the only private schools. Miami drew 52,000 last year. They are the only four privates I see skimming last year's attendance list that outdrew the CUSA attendance leader ECU.

One positive in having so few experienced players. Less trouble with veteran players who have developed a toxic attitude. Think it was Rick Minter at Cincinnati who once said the strange thing about coaching a program that has gone a long-time without success is that you end up being able to get some players signed that look amazing on film and you are excited to get that level of talent. Then you start wondering why they aren't going to the much better programs and if you aren't careful you find that they won't touch them because of their attitude. I know Joe Hollis got some kids from out of state at ASU later on that were surprising. One thing Roberts did early on was avoid kids from losing high school teams like the plague the first few years just trying to improve the attitude.

Skimming through some old post over at The Den. This is from our coaching search. Hudspeth, as I said in another thread, isn't a bad choice, if you think the program needs a total overhaul. My point being that ASU wasn't far from being pretty good and we needed to hire within. If Freeze's offense hadn't worked so well last year I would have been pushing very hard to get him at ASU.

I don't think it is reasonable to expect UNT to hire a new coach and get the results that Arkansas State and Louisiana are getting with their new hires. A red-shirt senior on any of the three teams signed in the Spring of 2007 was influenced by the 2006 season that finished a couple months earlier. Every other recruit was influenced by the seasons after 2006. UNT 2006-2010 record 11-49. Best season 3-9 (twice), worst season 1-11. Most significant win(s) SMU in 2006. Arkansas State 2006-2010 record 25-35. Best season 6-6 (twice) worst season 4-8 (twice). Record vs. UNT in span 5-0. Most significant win(s) SMU in 2007, Texas A&M 2008 Memphis 2006 & 2007 Louisiana 2006-2010 record 24-36. Best season 6-6 (three times) worst record 3-9 (twice). Record vs. UNT in span 4-1. Most significant win(s) Houston in 2006, Kansas State in 2009 Rather unrealistic to expect similar immediate results when UNT went a combined 1-9 the past five seasons against the two and when the BEST season at UNT in that time frame had the same record as the WORST season at UL and was worse the the WORST season at Arkansas State. I was impressed with the McCarney hire but he did not take over the situation that Hudspeth or Freeze took over.

I believe all the secondary deals have expired

Based on last year's standings, the #2 team in the WAC as it will exist next season lost at home last night 32-15 to a team that went 2-10 and finished in a three way tie for last in the 13 team MAC last year. The Sun Belt's worst team last year lost 14-3 to an SEC team that went to a bowl. The WAC name I suppose has some value but this isn't the WAC with Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah, TCU, Boise State, Hawaii, Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Wyoming, Rice, Tulsa, SMU, Fresno State, or Nevada. It has as much relationship to the WAC that earned respect as a street corner Rolex made in Indonesia has to a real Rolex. Alabama and Duke used to be in the Southern. Who is clamoring to get in the Southern? Oklahoma used to be in the MoValley, who is clamoring to move their football to the Valley?

My theory on rivalries. 1. Helps for the fan base to travel to the away games. 2. Games have to be played regularly. 3. There has to be a triumph you cherish. 4. There has to be a loss that burns at your heart. Arkansas State and UNT will meet for the 13th consecutive season this year. Louisiana and UNT will be the 12th consecutive meeting. This year marks the 11th consecutive meetings for UNT with ULM and MT, 8th with FAU, 7th with FIU and Troy and 5th with WKU. UNT - ULM will be the 28th meeting in the series. ULM had the benefit of being the last league loss before "the streak" but a loss like that only matters in retrospect because UNT football took on a new life after that game. If you look at the 10 last meetings since the series renewed, only three were close. The schools are 320 miles apart. ASU - UNT this year marks 21st playing of the series. It just really hasn't had any winner take all meetings since renewed regularly. Of the last 12 games since regular renewal of the series, seven have been determined by a TD or less. There were the exchanges of grenade celebrations to add a little spice. One thing that drags the series is that most of the ASU fans who come to Denton are from Little Rock or they are from the DFW region. UNT doesn't have a similar alumni base to tap into. The UNT base faces a 460 mile or so trip to ASU, while the ASU fans coming to Denton, many are driving 330 miles or much less. UL - UNT the entire series has only had 15 games played. Of the 11 games played consecutively, only three were determined by a TD or less. Roughly a 430 mile trip. The decline of UNT football has taken some of the fun out of it all. Since 2005 only 11 wins against teams currently in the Sun Belt. To have a healthy series, UNT has to play good football again (appears to be addressed) and then good UNT football has to coincide with good football at one of those three schools because everyone else is really too far away for the fans to follow the team.

They did the math. An unequal share of Big XII revenue was better than an equal share of what they could earn on their own. Personally I think those schools made a huge mistake long-term and a great decision short-term. In the short-term fans are happy to remain in a major conference. In the long-term the financial gap will widen to such a point that they will become irrelevant as long as UT, OU, and TAMU have reasonably competent management. They would be better served aligning with schools like Louisville, TCU, and Cincinnati who would be more compatible financially, rather than sink into a Vanderbilt/Miss.St. existence. There is no real money on the table in the Sun Belt except in basketball, just the way it is. Right now we give the team earning a basketball unit something like 75% of the unit the first year it is paid and the next five years it is shared equally. We would fix basketball quickly if we changed the system. The league takes six units off the top (one per year). Everything earned above that or 80% of that goes to the school earning it. Example 1 UNT gets the only bid, loses first round. UNT gets the NCAA per diem but the unit goes to the conference. Example 2. UNT gets the only bid but advances to the second round. UNT gets the per diem check, the first unit goes to the leage and UNT gets 80% of the second unit (roughly $200,000 after the deduction) for each of the six years. Example 3. ASU wins the tournament to get the auto bid. UNT gets in at-large. ASU loses, UNT advances to the second round. The league takes one unit for the first round and 20% of the other first round unit and 20% of the second round unit. ASU and UNT split the remaining first round unit and UNT takes 80% of the second round unit. ASU takes roughly $100,000 a year for the next six years, UNT takes $300,000 per year. Do this and success pays and pays pretty nicely. A check of $100,000 a year will buy two non-returned home games in basketball.

Let's jump into the wayback machine. If Tech doesn't balk at joining for football sending UCF scurrying for the exits, and then Boise (who was intent on joining) and Tech had not received WAC invites, ULM isn't in the Sun Belt as a football only member. The league had the chance to invite them as a full member when UNT, MTSU, and NMSU were offered full membership and instead football only was offered. Now fast forward a few more years. The NCAA declares that a conference must have eight full members playing FBS to be an FBS league, the Sun Belt only has five such schools but Utah State, Idaho, Troy and ULM are football only. The Sun Belt offers full membership to Troy, Utah State and Idaho who accept, ULM was not offered. Then the WAC comes calling and takes USU and NMSU and later Idaho. Then FIU agrees accelerate their move, FAU is brought in for all sports in return for their accelerated move. Only then does ULM come onboard as a full member. While ULM has been essential to the existence of the Sun Belt, I think the history very clearly indicates that the Sun Belt membership did not want to go with ULM football only but did so in what we now hear called "survival" mode and did not want to invite ULM as a full member but did so in "survival" mode. Survival mode doesn't always lead to bad decisions. Troy and FAU have worked out well despite complaints about Troy academics. I'm not for booting anyone out but I believe that ULM has not found an effective strategy for Sun Belt membership and the school should undertake an honest evaluation of whether they have a good means of righting the ship. When 10 of 16 sports finish in the bottom third of the league, and 5 of 7 completed so far have finished either last or next to last, there are clearly problems to correct.

Actually peaked at just over 180 before I-A and I-AA were created.

With 'Nova likely joining Big East for football it isn't very likely that the Big East makes any other moves in the next two years so C-USA is unlikely to make any moves. Arkansas State, athletic fee just got bumped and football ticket sales are already about 20X over last year (I suspect a high early renewal rate is a big factor) but I know donations are up significantly as a number of people (me included) have doubled their donations to show approval of the Freeze hire.

If Tech asked they would almost certainly be invited. Unless there is a major change there or ULM leaves, they aren't asking. Take a gander at Sagarin. Of returning WAC schools, the highest rated is below two Sun Belt teams. They are losing three top 50 programs and bringing in the second lowest rated Southland school and a school that has never snapped the ball. Look at the RPI. Outside of an outstanding USU program, the WAC is no big prize over the Sun Belt and one of their prize additions our 8th rated team. Women's basketball? Sun Belt put two in the dance, same as the WAC. Tech is rated a little above MTSU and UALR is rated 46 to Fresno's 45 and Fresno is leaving. Volleyball? Western schools are good but the Sun Belt has been a two bid league the last four years. There is also a sport called baseball. Sun Belt is 6th in RPI WAC 17th, the Sun Belt has had multiple teams invited in baseball for 22 consecutive seasons. Hard to see where the Sun Belt / Suck Belt talk comes from when the pesky facts don't back that up if the comparison point is the WAC. Right now the only bowl they are firmly with is Boise and scuttlebutt is that Boise will pull the plug after this year. While the new rule changes have saved the WAC's auto bid in other sports, the changes still leaves the league one short of conference status in football. That means a BCS payment of $100,000 per team ($700,000) rather than the guaranteed minimum of about $1.8 million. It also means that unless the WAC champ finishes ranked #1 or #2 they don't have to be selected by a BCS game because they go into the at-large pool. I don't know why "fans" trash the best league willing to have their school as a member but given the list willing to invite the school, the Sun Belt is pretty clear winner.

ESPN gets about half its revenue from subscribers and half ad revenue. The game is on ESPN because: 1. Don't want fans giving up cable or going to Internet providers not subscribing to ESPN3. 2. Need must have content to raise fees charged to cable and Internet. 3. Want to boost viewership to raise ad rates. 4. Making ESPN more essential let's them force cable to add more ESPN channels and services. ESPN is basically maxes out on number of subscribers so higher fees and higher ad revenue only growth avenue left.

BCS play-in is fantasy unless they give up a regular season game NCAA rules would have to change. Sun Belt, MAC and WAC (assuming they still have a vote) are NO votes. Now which BCS leagues are yes votes?

Just don't drag it out like ASU did.

I practiced family law long enough to know that when people get a divorce and then remarry, no matter how much they hated their spouse, they are most likely going to marry someone similar to the person they divorced. They will either share similar interests or have a similar phyisical appearance to when they married or both. MWC has officially added four schools since forming. I do not believe MWC took TCU for DFW. The Frogs had four ranked teams in the five years before they joined. Boise State had busted the BCS twice and was high enough to do it a third time before they were taken. Nevada has been ranked and is ranked this year. Fresno has a history of quality wins though they've not finished ranked of late. Likely to be invited Hawaii is in the exclusive club of four schools that have busted the BCS. There is a commonality to their invites all are schools that have achieved at a high and fairly consistent level. MWC has shown a vision of what they aspire to be in who they take. They want to build a league that fills that gap in major teams between the Big XII and Pac-12 footprint. They place home gate receipts over TV (see how many weeknight games they play). CUSA has shown they pursue large markets with no regard to success. They will go to small markets if you have had success and sell lots of tickets. CUSA's vision is to achieve maximum television dollars. Obviously, MWC hasn't accomplished its vision. They can do the buster thing but appear short in AQ status. CUSA has in my opinion botched its vision badly. Right now I'm hearing they don't want to do many weeknight games and will have to back down off that or accept less money than the Sun Belt because they've failed to create a must-watch product. Because of this, I don't believe the MWC is likely to go to 12 if TCU leaves because there aren't two schools they can get that fit the model they've followed. Are they compelled to stick with the model? Of course not, but I wouldn't bet the house on them departing from it. I don't think Big East is likely to add more than TCU and Villanova because no one they can add helps football the way TCU does and no one can help keep the full 16 circuit as stable as adding Villanova. They can go crazy and pursue some 20 team alignment that brings multiple schools with iffy basketball resumes but that just seems out of character. Their new commish might favor it and smooth talk the members into it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Announcing they planned to go FBS when the WAC desperately needed members helped more.

Don't call either until you've got a firm idea from ESPN what adding them is worth. If it is same dollars per school as we would get without them, exactly why would we call them?

San Jose State is the uber-ULM. Plug their athletic budget into a cost of living calculator that compares cities and the number you get comparing San Jose and ULM is nearly identical. When 15,000 butts in seats looked to be a hard fast rule, their AD said they couldn't make it but their solutions were: close the school cafeteria on Saturday and set-up food service at the stadium so the only way students could eat on Saturday with their meal plan would be by coming to the stadium. They put temporary fencing around all the parking and brought in a carnival and craft fair and charged like $2. Your admission for the event also got you in the game free and they counted everyone who came and put their kid on the tilt-a-whirl and bought a corn dog as having attended the game. Called Cal and Stanford about playing a home game at their home stadium against them or at a Candlestick and both rejected the idea. At least Arkansas called ULM with their deal rather than other way around it isn't UA's primary facility. Of course in the history athletics was there ever anything more shameful than Rice moving CONFERENCE home games against Arkansas to Little Rock in 1983 and 1991?

What a face plant from a school that in 2008 was one win from being in the BCS buster discussion.

What I like was a week ago, Hawaii was the centerpiece of the league, a school that had been to the BCS that could set the pace. Now it's boy we are glad we don't have to travel there.

Yes, Dwayne actually projected Tech would go financially bust earlier but Boise's BCS runs have pushed back those dates.