Arkstfan

Ha, I had just texted that to you.

Go count the number of FBS transfers on their rosters.

You ought to. Odds are pretty good that Conference Eastern USA will end up tabbing one of the Sun Belt's eastern newbies soon.

Haha ya'll don't want to water down CUSA with Sun Belt teams when 8 out of 14 are former Sun Belt. I guess the "quality" teams to take are Louisiana Lafayette, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. The only ones you are .500 or better against since the league formed.

This is why if Tulsa leaves the only two logical options CUSA has are: 1. Take one of ASU, UL, NMSU, TXST, Missouri State 2. Take WKU and two of the above list. Anything else skews the divisions into silliness.

Of the group of 5, there are 39 schools that at one time or another had Benson as their conference commissioner.

I expect App and GaSouth to have a few struggles but I like that they have proven they can sell tickets and that they know how to win.

Right now if you are an administrator in the MWC or MAC you have to like where you are. In the MAC they got there by mostly following a doctrine of can I bus there, is the school compatible? They've toyed with some TV oriented moves (Buffalo, UCF, Marshall, Temple, UMass) and they've been mostly a bust. In the MWC TV certainly played a role. They figured out the right 8 could make about the same money as the wrong 16. But they were driven by gate receipts. That was huge in what they did. They wanted to play games on Saturdays and they wanted to play regional opponents because it is good for local interest and if you sell a few tickets to visitors all the better. The fBE is just a mess. Any delusion that they had a coherent vision was dispelled when Tulane got the call. I suspect that if the Big XII could get a do-over they would rethink West Virginia, and the SEC would rethink Mizzou. Harry laid out the east heaviness of CUSA. If you lay it out on a map, UTEP, Tulsa, UNT, UTSA, Rice, La.Tech with or without USM looks less like a good division of CUSA and more like the core of a solid southwestern oriented league. Everyone except UNT and USM did a stint in the old WAC at some point. It is the old SLC footprint. Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, FIU, FAU, UAB, MTSU, WKU, looks a whole lot like the OLD Sun Belt (which was founded with USF, Charlotte, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Georgia State, South Alabama and later added UAB, ODU, WKU, VCU). CUSA dividing east/west is inevitable unless the fBE beats them to it and that might well be the best answer for UNT. It is one thing for SMU to sit in the meetings of an existing conference say no way to UNT, if a league is starting from scratch things might not be so easy. The reality is that if fBE loses UConn and Cincinnati, Houston is going to call a lot of shots if they choose to. Houston doesn't need SMU. They can literally dictate the terms if they choose to start a league. Yeah SMU, Tulane, Rice, and Tulsa might stick together but who among CUSA (absent Rice) or Sun Belt west of Birmingham would tell Houston to shove it? Even if Rice, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa stick together everyone else in the region outside of the Big XII and SEC will pick the Houston league over the privates league.

The Wal-Mart effect. If Wal-Mart comes to your town, you aren't going to beat Wal-Mart on price or number of hours the store is open. You can beat them on selection. You can beat them on service. You can beat them on services offered. You have to find your niche. I think what we have seen in realignment is Boise State and San Diego State figured out that the former Big East was trying to play the same game the SEC, Big 10, Big XII, P12, and ACC were playing and it was an unwinnable game. If you look at world of conferences, the WCC, Valley, A10, and even the CAA and from 1995 to 2005 CUSA played a different game from the rich 6 of the era. Their product was more about NCAA basketball units than anything else. Remember the initial CUSA was 6 football and 6 non-football, basketball was the game, namely units. It was the era before BCS access so playing a five or six game football schedule made sense. The fBE and CUSA are currently constructed on a model of maximum TV dollars, but that tops out at $1.8 million per team currently. MWC is certainly trying to make TV money but their league is geared toward busting the BCS and now CFP. In all likelihood, MWC is going to generate more money in 2014 from the CFP than from TV. It will generate almost as much in NCAA units as it does in TV. The MWC's divisional format is going to keep overhead down while having the optimal alignment for NCAA and CFP revenue generation. The Big Ten Earthquake. The Big 10 by all accounts is going to 16 as soon as they get everything lined up. The SEC by all accounts doesn't want to go to 16 but the idea of the Big 10 having a base in SEC country or even the Big XII coming in is probably not palatable. The question today is does the SEC make a pre-emptive strike or does it play "nice guy" and simply go bargain hunting after the Big 10 strikes? The Big 10 taking two probably means the SEC goes to 16 as well and the Big XII goes to at least 12. More than likely the ACC is looking to fill up to six positions. That creates an ACC that is no longer part of the rich 5 because the rich 5 is now the rich 4. The TV value once contained in 65 schools is boiled down to 57 schools or 59 or 61 depending on how big the Big XII goes. The ACC becomes the new fBE. The south and southwest realign yet again. And the whole thing may shake out within the next 12 months depending on what the Big 10 does.

Geography can't easily be overlooked. Take a page from Sun Belt history. UNT-MTSU was a quasi-rivalry but the minute it became irrelevant in the league race it became another game. The same goes for WKU-UNO and ASU-UNO in basketball. At one time Arkansas State would take over a thousand people to a freaking basketball game in New Orleans. Then it became irrelevant to the league race and the "rivalry" was over. A rivalry isn't a rivalry unless it can draw a fair crowd for 1-10 vs. 0-11 in the season finale. Not a packed house but a decent crowd. No one is driving 10 or 12 hours for that game. Despite all the shuffling and cries that realignment is killing rivalries, we have Arkansas and TAMU playing in the same conference again. They were playing non-conference before that. If you go through the old SWC, right now Rice is the only modern era member out there not affiliated with an old SWC member. You even see it with the Southland. The Southland was strictly an Arkansas-Texas league when it was formed. Next year former charter members ASU and UTA are reunited, out the entire history of the league, the only schools to ever pass through that aren't affiliated or slated to be affiliated with other former SLC members are Trinty and Jacksonville State. Sooner or later the geography wins out.

Sun Belt won't go out of the football business unless former Big East splits East/West into two new leagues or CUSA splits east/west to form two leagues. Otherwise the numbers will always be there for the Sun Belt.

I can't imagine MWC adding anyone unless they lose someone. ASU and UL were getting hot and heavy with MWC until Boise came back. General consensus is they are at 12 unless BYU chooses to return.

There are only two schools in CUSA that weren't already there or joined with you. FAU isn't a world beater but they are a market and travel addition. FIU hanging out by themself was not good for FIU's long-term future nor good for the budget of the eastern teams. Of the eight recent additions, Tech is the only one with a clearly better resume than MTSU, but MTSU also adds market and a well run program. Seeing the Sun Belt 2.0 moans I think some are forgetting some key points. 1. The Sun Belt the past fews years was actually pretty good (record vs CUSA certainly supports that). 2. Geography was a weak point with the western side lacking solid football rivalries due to distance. 3. The drag on the Belt created by adding two schools that didn't fit. Remember ULM was supposed to be football only until something else worked out and it was only the gun of NCAA rule changes that made them a full member. Troy had on-field success but most Sun Belt presidents would never cal them a peer institution. Their attendance figures while dominating the league suggest that they have peaked in support. As an aside, I've visited the Missouri State board to see if there is any reality to them going FBS, what strikes me is their fans don't want to go to FBS because they consider all viable FBS options to be too large of a step downward in basketball. An understandable position until you consider that Missouri State hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1999. That argument is like an Indiana fan citing the chance to go the Rose Bowl as the reason to be Big 10. If the value in a conference is to stroke an ego then it is a foolhardy position to take. Value has to be measurable in things like revenue and expenses. The difference in revenue between CUSA and Sun Belt is over-stated, but the value in bus trips against regional opponents is clear. I suspect the long-term trend for CUSA is either more raids by the former Big East as realignment continues or growing larger to set the stage for a CUSA that spawns regional leagues, unless the former Big East falls apart and regional leagues emerge out of it.

Personally I don't buy the WKU to replace Tulsa thing. I cannot see why UNT, UTSA, Rice, UTEP would go for it. http://www.arkst.com/why-im-not-sold-wku-replaces-tulsa/

That ship already sailed. 8 of 14 are former Sun Belt.

The only study I've seen was done before ACC, SEC, Big 10, went larger than 12. I suspect that the new data from their results would find 14 or 16 to be the ideal.

That presumes that new teams add no value and the title game adds no value. Pretty reliable person tells me A1 has to get to 12 because of the TV contract.

Sure he meant Georgia State.

But what if the A1 had its act together instead of moving piecemeal and had added ECU and Tulane at the same press conference when Memphis was added? CUSA would have been down to: UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, USM, UAB, and Marshall.

The local folks matter. La.Tech's conduct with the I-Bowl galled several members who have ties to ULM, and galled the LSU booster contingent who felt offended that Tech deemed themselves to be any different from ULM or too good to come to Shreveport, thus the drop dead deadline. But the sponsors matter too. AutoZone nixed taking the ASU-MTSU winner when a Big XII team became available. They figured it was better for their brand and they want the game to be SEC-Big XII and saw that game as a chance to court the Big XII. That's why I haven't made a single purchase at Autozone but have made several at O'Reilly's. Relationships also matter. In 2010 the New Orleans Bowl agreed to let CUSA short them by sending UTEP to the New Mexico Bowl. They were not happy in 2011 when CUSA was short teams to not be protected after having helped CUSA the year before.

Except for the members of the Greater New Orleans Sports Foundation who went to Tulane or support Tulane or see Tulane as beneficial.

Liberty is going to pitch SEC vs. Big XII, if they can't get Big XII they are going after ACC, depending on who you talk to their 3rd choice to pursue is either Pac-12 or the league formerly known as Big East. Hawaii, conventional wisdom is that they are going to take a run at the Pac-12 while there is internal pressure within CUSA to get out of that financial albatross. Heart of Dallas absolutely stays with CUSA the question is who is the opponent. Beef O'Brady my guess is that it will be CUSA vs. former Big East. New Orleans will stay with the Sun Belt but the rumor is that they will make a run at the former Big East.Rumor mill says MAC is offering some money to the Greater New Orleans Sports Foundation for a basketball classic to be held at Lakefront Arena the weekend of the New Orleans Bowl that would be a doubleheader featuring two MAC teams and two Louisiana teams and/or Sun Belt teams with the promise that the two MAC teams would be their best guess as to being bowl eligible football teams and if one of the MAC participants is bowl eligible the New Orleans Bowl would get priority selecting that team to try draw better crowds. None of that means that CUSA won't stay just that the MAC does want in and is willing to sweeten the pot but GNOSF does want aligned with Tulane, Houston, SMU, Memphis, doesn't mean the feeling is mutual. I suspect CUSA picks up Armed Forces.

To quote a Memphis fan, "We're out $6 million to add Temple to our schedule" of course that presumes UConn and Cincy eventually find their way out. I challenge people to look at the long-term of conference realignment. History says that for the bulk of the teams there is no such thing as "moving up". Over time a few will climb the ladder, more will shake out and a few newbies rise up but as a rule... gains tend to be temporary except for a few schools. A12 America One or whatever it ends up being called will have 3 members that emerged from the Missouri Valley (4 if Tulsa goes) and 5 members that used to be in the old Metro and at least 8 from CUSA. CUSA will have 8 of 14 members from the Sun Belt. The MWC is 12 former WAC members, 7 former Big West, 4 former Skyline Conference schools. Of the first 13 members of C-USA, 10 will either be Big East (C7) or A12/America One segregated football/non-football. Three will be CUSA (USM, UAB and returning Charlotte). So really what has happened is the old CUSA has split football/non-football and for at least the time being, culled UAB, USM, and Charlotte.

Their TV contract literally includes marketing funds to help get the new branding established. If I'm ever creating a new sports brand, having ESPN committing dollars to the effort would give me some peace of mind.

The same reasons all of you joined CUSA. 1. Be with schools perceived to be peers. 2. To be able to say "at least we aren't in a conference with ____"