Arkstfan

More expensive if you are winning. School raises the ticket prices and required minimum donation, celebration booze, more swag because you are even happier to wear it and then throw in road games which now sound like more fun.

They made the same pitch to the Big East when it was still an "AQ" conference and didn't work, also worth noting Memphis wasn't invited in round 1 of the latest with Houston, SMU and UCF. FedEx could throw dump trucks of money into Memphis and make them irresistible but they've never done that (don't get me wrong they are a serious sponsor) but they are seriously into quid pro quo of getting something they can show the shareholders and being the super sugar daddy of Memphis Tigers athletics hasn't been it. FedEx also offered dump truck loads of money to the owner of the Grizzlies and NBA if the team name would be changed to Memphis Express and adopt FedEx colors. The NBA said no thank you.

First @croatan that's an AWESOME screen name!!! Second, yes there will be changes. The intercollegiate athletics ecosystem has always been dynamic and changing. UChicago and University of the South stepped off the insanity of athletics in their era. The Ivies scaled back what they were doing. Numerous schools have given up football over the years. Circumstances change. When more reliable busses and better highways came along, leagues no longer looked at how hard it was to take a train to play someone. Then air charter became reliable and affordable. The NCAA for a time did little but create a national framework and scholarship limits if they existed were determined by conferences so was bowl eligibility and people who didn't like the answers from their conference went indy or broke off to form the SEC, ACC, and Big 8. TV was once controlled by the NCAA and there was a cap on national appearances by a school. Leagues like the Pac-8 and SWC saw it make sense to add Arizona, Arizona State and Houston to tap into the TV and get around the caps, while independence made great sense. Then the oil strike in hoops money made basketball important. Here comes the Big East, Metro, Sun Belt, A10. TV value was measured first in markets, then ratings share, then it became whether you had fans that would tell Comcast to shove it if they didn't carry your team's games and later your school's TV network. I have no fear of the NCAA legislating schools out of FBS and very little fear of the elites taking their ball and going somewhere else to play. What I worry about is we are nationally going to see flat to declining numbers enrolling in college for several years to come. State legislators no longer fear backlash and being voted out if they vote to cut higher ed funding. Some schools will curtail athletic funding to cover state funding shortfalls. Lower enrollments at some schools means fewer fee dollars to subsidize athletics. The pressure and strain on the student loan program from an economy that no longer rewards "a degree" with a decent paying Monday-Friday job with paid vacation not always being there means greater difficulty paying off loans, less free time to attend the alma mater's games and fewer spare dollars to donate and buy tickets. Maybe Idaho is the iceberg and it's just an ice cube in a glass and maybe we see schools no longer able to fund high level athletics and give it up. Maybe we change how we pay for college and fees are no longer a viable option and transfers of funds to athletics harder to do. Those things are far more likely than getting ordered out by the elites. We don't know what the next model of paying to see games on video will look like. Maybe the carriage fee model dies and it becomes subscription or maybe you pay a subscription and schools only get paid for the actual views of games out of that subscription fee. Maybe the USC's Alabama's Texas' and Michigan's of the world feel they no longer need their conference as an economic unit and go independent or use that threat as leverage to make conferences return to being a method of efficient game scheduling, compiling stats, sponsoring title events, and handing out awards to players. Or maybe the Big 10 becomes the Big 32 or 48 and teams put all their income generation in the league's hands make their own schedules and post-season events. Maybe a school can weather the changes but no longer has enough like-minded and like-funded peers within their region to make it worth their time to stick around. Yale met I-A criteria but opted to move with their peers. McNeese did likewise. Wichita State found it no longer viable with all of the Valley but them Tulsa and NMSU relegated down and NMSU hit the road for the Big West. NMSU only found a home there because budget problems in California made it no longer viable for schools like Long Beach and Fullerton to fund I-A football. There is plenty of danger out there but the ebb and flow of intercollegiate athletics is a constant force.

Absolutely. Among the data the selection committee receives is six different power ratings that take into account winning percentage and I know several if not all factor in FCS games. An FCS win doesn't perfectly balance a P5 loss in those but reduces the sting. The critical element though the non-conference FBS games. You play a 9 game schedule, most years you are going to play a money game and an FCS. That leaves one "peer" game. In a 12 team league that means you play 12 peer games total most years. Breaks out like this: 12 Money 12 FCS 12 peer 54 intra-conference which means a conference winner and conference loser in every game. If the conference goes 4-8 vs. money, 12-0 vs FCS and 8-4 vs. peer net winning percentage is .5417 Take that same league on an 8 game schedule. 12 money going 4-8 12 FCS going 12-0 24 peer with same winning percentage of 16-8 48 intra-conference You get a winning percentage of .5555 Nine game conference schedules are bad for gaming the computers, that's why the consultants told the Big XII that 12 playing an 8 game schedule would increase their chances of the playoff roughly 5% vs 10 playing a 9 game schedule. As for FCS games. AState hasn't played one that needed less than four TD's to win at the final horn since 2003, so yeah I take them for granted.

Remember having a travel partner really doesn't do much for WVU. Not like travel partners rent an RV and ride the country together. The impact is on visitors. Fly to Morgantown then turn around and go home. A travel partner is just someone else to play while you are out. For WVU they can fly to Austin in basketball and then play in Waco on the same trip. Nice and neat. They can play OU and OKST on the same trip, the two are basically an hour apart. Makes life easy for WVU. No travel partner for WVU makes life crap for everyone else. So (I am getting to a point) if you look at all the G5 there are only two who look much like a P5 in drawing crowds, BYU and ECU with a big advantage to BYU. If you are looking for a conference TV network, BYU is getting 100% coverage in Utah, ECU is still going to be behind UNC and NCState in priority of fans state-wide. If you look at self-generated revenue. BYU's numbers aren't public but we know their TV deal with ESPN produces more revenue than any G5 school, roughly double what any of the G5 receives from their conference. They sell 60k plus tickets. We can assume they blow the top off in self-generated revenue. Among the rest of the G5 UConn, Boise, New Mexico, ECU, Cincy, and Army are the only ones to hit $30 million or be in close striking distance. BYU TV ratings are top-notch. BYU is the most P5-like school out there that isn't P5. You can add them with no fear of them hurting the bottom line. The question is do the B12 presidents accept them on academic and social issues grounds? If yes, then there is the Sunday play issue and that is a zero factor in football, not much of an issue for most sports except baseball and the cop-out way to address it is BYU won't play Sundays AT HOME. Financially in their best interest anyway. Freaking IHOP in Salt Lake closed at 9pm on Sunday when we were out there and was among the few restaurants even open. If they have to play Sunday in Austin so be it. Which brings me to the point. BYU is the most logical addition, if you add BYU you now have TWO outliers. In academic rankings the other candidates fall out like this: UConn, Colorado State, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, Houston, Memphis UConn outlies WVU by another 500 miles. While Colorado State isn't much closer to BYU than UConn is to WVU, Colorado State backfills to the rest of the Big XII. Cincinnati is the only real option to perform that role with WVU. The president at WVU is heading up expansion and Dr. Gee is very much a wrapped up in athletics guy by all appearances, he may rather not have another P5 created in the region to compete against and let Colorado State's elevation to P5 status be a problem for BYU and P12 member Colorado to deal with.

USM posted 18 consecutive winning seasons. They cleared out Bower when he stagnated and hired Fedora. He was the MUTS OC in 2001. He landed the USM job after bouncing around had three OK years and then exploded and got the UNC job. Rather than hire Fedora's OC (Blake Anderson) they hired Johnson. He brought in greats like Ricky Bustle and Tommy West who had been fired as head coach three times between them. They not only ditched the spread option with tempo, the average age of the coaching staff went up more than 10 years. The AD at USM repudiated everything Fedora had done by changing systems and going with a much older staff. They didn't stumble they needed to be placed on psychiatric hold for self-harm.

In athletics, I'm a member of the Church of the Pragmatic. In eschatology and sports I'm a pan-millennialist, It'll all pan out in the end. There are things to sweat and things to not sweat. If the president at Rice were to say, "I'm tired of this effin BS" and wanted to realign geographically pretty much everything would work out. Phone calls placed to UTSA, UNT, UTEP, maybe Tech and USM as well. "I'm taking Rice to the Sun Belt, we are going to rename it and declare that it's a new conference. You can come with us or explain to your fans why the best regarded academic program with the longest major history dumped you." Into the Belt, press conference announcing the "new" conference and in the meantime what's left in CUSA shores up their numbers. Think ULL, TXST, ULM or AState is ditching the Belt if Rice is coming on board? CUSA starts picking up people like GaSt, GaSo, App, maybe some of the Alabamas. Before the dust settles, the new group sets its membership policy and gives schools 0 to 5 years to comply or be expelled (remember that happened to Denver and UNO). ULM issue resolves one way or the other. They find another $8 million for the budget or they find a new home. Tech chooses to pout rather than join? Fine they've done the outlier thing before and can do so as long as the rest of CUSA doesn't care. Or maybe Wood Selig gathers the eastern CUSA schools together walks to the Sun Belt and says let us in. Sun Belt says yes because saying yes means CUSA West gotta fix the numbers issue that will arise. Same story different direction. Get enough shifting going around and waiving entrance and exit fees becomes no big deal. All it takes is one or two key players and boom. Sound like Georgia Southern. Eight is the magic number. Equal number of home and away league games, no one has to climb the five conference road game mountain to become champion. One spot for a bag game, one spot for an FCS tune-up, two spots for home/home vs. other G5. If you are going to contend for an access spot you need more non-conference wins rather than a larger league schedule pulling you toward .500 overall.

They also see BYU as their outreach arm and a relevant BYU helps that. I ain't Mormon and don't have a clue what they will do but they have received expedient revelations in the past.

Southern 2.0 we added the top two teams from the Southern, the ones winning all the FCS titles. Imagine the Oklahoma City metro except larger. Now imagine there is no NBA or other major pro team there. And there is not a P5 team basically in the suburbs. And there is not a P5 that is less than 70 miles away, instead the nearest P5 is 165 miles away. THAT is what ODU has to work with!

I've been through ups and downs at AState and frankly any success a G5 (or an FCS for that matter) has is dumb luck (geography, things fall together, whatever) unless the board of trustees, the chief executive of the university system, chief executive of the campus, and the athletic director are all on the same page and that page happens to be a pro-athletics page. We fired the AD who hired Hugh Freeze and Gus Malzahn because he didn't think big enough for the Board, system president, and campus chancellor. Most places two hires like that is lifetime contract. You have to have 100% or you have to hope for dumb luck.

Academically on par with K-State and Texas Tech and bridges nicely to BYU for Olympic sports.

Of course AAC expansion is a moot issue if the rumor du jour of B12 favoring a BYU/Colorado State combo pans out. Then UTEP is in the MWC conversation and if they go CUSA sits tight until UAB's status fully resolves and if that pans out figure out how to make 6/7 work or add Georgia State. Of course MWC could also just terminate Hawaii's agreement and be at 10.

Same group that said polygamy was essential outlawed it when it was a condition for Utah being admitted to the Union and later had a relevation that black people could be full member after saying they couldn't.

I'm sorry you weren't breastfed and have adjustment issues. Did I say AState was headed to AAC? Nope. I posted a list of the 10 largest budgets in the region outside of AAC, and 10 largest in self-generated revenue since a drop in enrollment or state funding can hurt a school's capacity to fund itself. Look at WKU dropped three sports and looking to cut more from the athletic department. Because the athletic department isn't successful? No, because Kentucky is cutting state funding and they've experienced a small dip in enrollment. Sorry that you hind end is on fire about something maybe you have a member size issue you need to deal with, but I think a smart person would scan the two lists and conclude ODU and Army are most likely among the top candidates since they are the only school on both lists that hasn't recently dropped football and said oops and is trying to add it back, rather than going on a crazed rant. Ever is a long time, people said that about UNT and CUSA of course you didn't really join CUSA either so there's that. Couple national writers have said BYU insiders say Sunday play is not a problem if they get a P5 invite.

NCAA Convention the year before Lacewell said he and Bear got blasted in the hotel bar and before the night was over had agreed to a game against Bama in Birmingham. Next day Bear called and said Larry did I agree to a game? Yes. Well are you at Arkansas State or South Arkansas now? Arkansas State. OK I was afraid you were NAIA and I was going to have to cancel. When Bama and USC signed their famous series, Charlie Thorton said Bear walked in and said I need you to go on a trip with me. They drove to Birmingham and Charlie had no idea where they were going. They got on a plane in Birmingham and flew to LAX. Sat in a bar at the airport drinking and soon John McKay came in. Bear explained he wanted a home and home and why he wanted it. McKay pulled out a notebook and suggested dates. Bear told Charlie to write them down. Bear and McKay shook hands and went got on a plane back to Birmingham.

On the first list UNT would have been 13th at $31.3 million with Akron and MTSU at 11th and 12th respectively. On the second list UNT would also be 13th at $11.2 behind #11 FAU and #12 Toledo.

Membership changing certainly had an impact but that isn't the only thing that changed from when the old deal was signed back when you were in the Sun Belt. Fox. Had contracts with the Pac-10 and Big XII at the time but at the time were limited in the areas Fox could distribute that content. CUSA was the only FBS content they could distribute nationally. That meant if Fox NW had a hole to fill, they could plug in a CUSA game. Today Fox can distribute P12 and B12 nationally. CBSSN. Had no content in FBS in the Eastern and Central time zones. All they had was MWC. CUSA gave them content in a region they lacked. Since then ESPN has been selling excess AAC and MAC content (in the two time zones covering the Midwest, northeast, and south) to CBSSN at less per game than what CBSSN was paying CUSA. The scarcity value that CUSA capitalized on with some well regarded brands (now mostly in AAC) simply no longer exists.

It's not a waiver, its a rule change so it would require approval from the Division I Council (AD's mostly) and Board of Directors (presidents) to change it back. 12 works nicely because it's easy. Two divisions of six, play 5 divisional games, play three crossover and everyone comes to your stadium at least once in four years. 10 you have to either play a 9 game schedule playing everyone or two divisions of 5, play four division games, four crossover skipping one team and are all but assured that the title game will be a rematch. But you get more dollar bang for your buck with 10.

Supposedly the AAC commissioner has said that if they lose one, they will replace, if they lose two, they will be inclined to sit at 10. Remember the CFP formula changed. It's $1 million per school up to 10 instead of 12 as first reported. The extra revenue went into the performance pool. Looking at the public schools in the eastern and central time zone based on total athletic budget who are G5 but not in the AAC. In millions. 1. Old Dominion $43.9 2. Army $41.2 3. UMass $36.5 4. Western Michigan $34.7 5. TXST $34.5 6. Eastern Michigan $33.9 7. Charlotte $33.1 8. Miami (OH) $33.1 9. Buffalo $32.1 10. UAB $31. 8 Now the public's by athletic revenue generated by the department (excluding government, university, and student fees) 1. Army $28.9 2. ODU $15.5 3. UL Lafayette $15.2 4. USM $15.2 5. AState $15.2 6. Marshall $14.9 7. UTSA $13 8. La.Tech $12.5 9. UAB $12.3 10. MTSU $12.2

ODU AD says contract may be $4 million to $6 million and they are budgeting on the assumption it will be $6 million. Also article from Virginia says TV rights were cut after the defections and exit fees were used to supplement it. Based on CUSA tax filings the TV rights were actually cut from $14 million to $10 million. I'm reminded of what happened to the pre-Benson WAC CFA TV deal collapsed, ABC was talking about not even picking up their rights. Big 8 raids the SWC and the WAC goes to 16 and is able to secure a TV deal that would pay the 16 roughly what they had received at 10. Then a few years later the core members no longer like what they have and sit down and create a new league and got a bit more money per team but put the regional schools together (SDSU being the outlier) but culled Hawaii, Fresno, SJSU, TCU, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, UTEP making the WAC map look like a doughnut with a big hole in the middle. MWC members were more interested in playing regional teams and built a dang good brand in the process. Somewhere out there is a CUSA president who no longer sees the value of playing "them" i.e. schools in the other division and wants to shift things around geographically and quit splitting the CFP money 14 ways when the optimal number is 10, though 12 has value in scheduling.

To become I-A (in addition to playing the required schedule) 1. Average 17,000 paid attendance once in four years in a 30,000 seat stadium -OR- 2. Average 17,000 paid attendance over the past four years. To remain I-A Meet one of: 1. Average 17,000 paid attendance once in four years in a 30,000 seat stadium -OR- 2. Average 17,000 paid attendance over the past four years. 3. Average 20,000 home and away attendance over the past four years. 4. Average 20,000 home and away attendance once in the past four years if you had 30,000 seats. 5. Be a member of a conference where more than half of members meet I-A criteria. Problem for UNT (and AState and others) was there was no compliance period. If you did not meet the standards 1-4 to remain I-A at the end of the 1981 season, you were I-AA. No grace period, no time to ramp up. UNT could not avail itself of options 3, 4 or 5 because all that mattered was what happened prior to the end of 1981 when the change was passed. Without looking it up, I seem to recall UNT had a compliant schedule in 1982 and could have moved to Texas Stadium and if arrangements were made to sell sufficient tickets UNT would have been reclassified I-A for the 1983 season. There was no avoiding being I-AA in 1982. Cincinnati did sue and the settlement agreement was that Cincy would remain I-A for 1982 BUT if they didn't meet I-A criteria in 1982 they would be reclassified I-AA in 1983. There was an opportunity to seek a one year waiver at the NCAA convention and numerous schools applied. AState was the only one to get close and that was mainly because Larry Lacewell had a lot of coaching buddies who included his father's best friend, some guy named Paul Bryant from Alabama who campaigned for us.

If you are going to spend the money for a new coach, set your sites higher than Shields.

Our AD played football at AState and our system president grew up in Jonesboro. There is a great deal of passion for the athletic program at the top. A friend went on a football trip with the team and his wife told him he'd need to watch his mouth. Once the game started he was sitting near the Chancellor and AD and quickly realized he didn't need to worry about anything slipping out and having attended a football watch party at the President's house, I learned I didn't have to worry about anything slipping out there either. Volleyball went 16-0 in conference, football 8-0, women's hoops 19-1 and honestly our women's hoops coach is on a flaming hot seat because he's never made the NCAA Tournament. The leadership expects NCAA not runner-up tournaments.

I don't like UALR but I'm very pleased. Last year Georgia State advancing to round of 32 made little impact on the AState fan base. None of the money people cared enough to pony up to send Brady packing (we tried and couldn't raise the money). UALR advancing is going to set off a collective "hell no" among our boosters hopefully accompanied by the ceremonial opening of checkbooks.

I was looking at the Chattanooga coach when AState was still looking. The talk on him is that he thinks he's about to be loaded for bear and is a year maybe two from a P5 job and not looking to move around to a mid-major needing a rebuild.