Arkstfan

Memphis got in AAC because they were invited to Big East before the hoop schools broke away. They had to get 3/4ths vote when half the league didn’t play football. Tulane got in because it got popped on the presidents with no warning and they were like yeah elite southern academic we like that and the ADs flipped out that they weren’t consulted.

Actually ECU was the first expansion team.

Hiring coaches doesn’t seem that hard to me. AState has hired 5 since December of 2010 and four left for raises.

Regionalization is far harder than people imagine. Say AAC gets involved and the west becomes the core of the oft dreamt new SWC. Sun Belt becomes the dreamt of “Eastern League” and CUSA a “mid-south league”. You don’t get ECU and Temple signing on to the new eastern league unless they get as much money and exposure as if they had cobbled up an AAC 2.0. Arkansas State isn’t going to sign on to move off ESPN family for CBSSN and NFL Network. Until you can make people no worse off than if they held what they have regional cannot work.

This isn’t correct. Sun Belt is locked to two and guaranteed at least two more via the ESPN bowl pool.

Never lay money on common sense prevailing 😄

I’ve sent a lot texts and even emails (older people still like email). This is what I’ve learned. Mostly cryptic stuff you can read multiple ways. 1. The AAC’s $7 million per team doesn’t hit until the back end of the contract and is basically off the table with departures. It’s currently $5 million per team and estimate is it will be $2.5 million to $3 million post-departure. 2. People in the know are saying there is not enough money out there for presidents to bury the idea of regionalization. 3. Fans have grudges. Fans look down on some programs because of the past. Few administrators have been around long enough to remember or know those things. They are looking at each other through the lens of the past 3-5 years.

Thought they were great. Lot of details that were informative

Markets in 2021 only matter if you have a conference network that is on basic cable. Then you charge the cable companies more money per subscriber in the state. Last I saw BTN charges a cable company like 10 cents per subscriber in non-Big 10 states and $1.10 in Big Ten states. So if you live in Iowa your cable or satellite or IPTV provider with BTN is paying $1.10 per month for you to have BTN, cross the border into Missouri it drops to 10 cents. Back 20 or so years ago, markets mattered because TV didn’t have great data collection capability. For a lot of programs they simply extrapolated known viewership based on market size. If you were selling the Raycom package network ads you’d say OK we know x percentage watches SWC games on ABC, so we will apply something similar because we believe that percentage will watch in DFW, San Antonio, Houston, Tyler, Little Rock, and Fayetteville/Fort Smith. Bigger market we will charge more for advertising. Today an advertiser will laugh you out of the room. Much better data is available. They know typically this many people will watch a game. If you look at SEC’s first expansion, they did not invite markets. Arkansas and South Carolina are small markets. The schools drew viewers. In more recent times, Big Ten’s decision to add a 12th team sent them to Nebraska a state that still hasn’t hit 2 million in population. Now it is becoming more important that you drive subscribers to online services. If people watch your games on a subscriber service, you are more important because that creates the concern you won’t renew if the team isn’t available. Today so few games are sold regionally that markets are pretty much irrelevant, national numbers matter. It’s why BYU was making so much on TV as an independent. Arkansas and Utah are roughly the same population but BYU’s ability to sell nationally made them worth more as an independent than as a member of MWC or AAC.

I think the view from 30,000 feet is Rice is academically prestigious and in a big market and a school that Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane have generally wanted to align with. UTSA looks perfectly fine academically and they are in a large city with only an NBA team. Remember CUSA took them, ODU, and Charlotte on basically nothing but market and potential when none of them had played a down of FBS football and Tulsa, ECU, and Tulane were all in the room when that vote was taken.

But they are better coached than last year in my opinion. Problem is you can’t coach dachshunds into being Great Danes. They’ve got to seriously up their recruiting.

Coastal lost some studs and I don’t understand people tagging them to be as good as last year.

I think it’s an interesting dilemma for AAC. I’d expect Tulsa, SMU, and Tulane to be for Rice. I wonder though if there might be some of the state schools going nope we’re good, if we have to be in Texas, let’s go with UTSA to get a new area rather than taking second choice of Houston. Trying to think like Aresco, I think there’d be some though to Air Force and Colorado State and go after St Louis and Dayton. Ten works just fine in football for a G5 and you bolster hoops. I’ve seen one report (SI maybe?) that said UAB, ODU, FIU, FAU. I think both of FIU and FAU seems improbable. Thing with AAC is they have a lot of options but not many that you look at and say well they are obvious.

Walmart became a beast in retail by understanding that it’s possible to make trainloads of money not where the most potential customers are but the biggest concentration of likely customers. New York City is the largest television market and it’s not close. 538 blog pointed out a few years more people watch college football in the number 45 market (Birmingham) than in the number 1 market NYC despite the fact there are ten times as many tv homes in NYC than Birmingham. ESPN I suspect has some bodacious data sets and analysis especially with ESPN3 and ESPN+ in existence about who is likely to watch what. Consider the UT and OU move to SEC. it’s going to cost ESPN $150 million to $190 million payment to shutdown LHN. They were willing to pay that to get Texas into SEC. I happen to STRONGLY suspect ESPN intends to cull the CUSA herd to make money. They will “answer” any questions AAC has about potential members and that will “influence” the choices AAC makes more than anything else.

I don’t think AState is realistic for AAC. Memphis is sitting 70 miles away and will not play in hoops but plays in everything else. Why add someone who overlaps not just your recruiting area but your ticket sales area. I am a firm believer that when you seek members you want close but not too close. You don’t want schools that get covered by your own local media and sell more than a nominal number of tickets in your ticket marketing area. UTA apparently is talking with the Valley so voluntary departure is feasible. As to UALR normally expulsion requires a unanimous vote but UALR is operating under a waiver of the bylaws. Back when UNT was in we adopted a 15 conference sport requirement to force UNO out and to put UALR on the clock because they only had 14. They’ve since dropped tennis (league sport) and added wrestling (not a league sport, but fully funded by the father of AState’s starting QB, who funded numerous high school wrestling programs in Arkansas). Depending on who you believe revoking UALR’s waiver takes either a 3/4ths or majority vote. Trojans are toast only having been indulged because Chris Beard had a great year there.

FWIW there was a rumor on the Marshall board that they were talking to Sun Belt. Of course there was also a claim Sun Belt commissioner visited and he denied.

Well I could understand SMU not wanting to give up a willing non-conference opponent and make them a league opponent opening up non-conference slots but the bigger issue is what’s in it for AAC? Their opinion most likely is that we got DFW already why not look elsewhere? As a friend said, think like Aresco. Who furthers the P6 narrative? Who has a brand that would get the media saying they should be in the big brand group? That’s a tough order. Air Force hasn’t been all that good but apple pie and the American flag. Colorado State pretty well fits. Boise fits but Boise is a pain to deal with by all accounts and they may think Big 12 is in their future. Gets pretty slim after that. USM still has some faint residual glow of being good but they’ve not been especially good since what 2012? Marshall was lethargic after joining CUSA and has benefitted from CUSA 3.0 but their big attention was years ago. The you’ve got to consider the politics. What schools get six votes out of the pool of Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, USF, ECU, Temple, Wichita State? That probably is good for UAB even though they are not what I’d call an AAC brand, they just fit well geographically.

I think it is very logical to grab four now and then add a few once the Texas and Oklahoma departure date is firmed up. The AAC schools basically have to stick in AAC for two more years to avoid paying more than the $10 million departure fee.

Cooperation has never happened before. I don’t think there is a G5 AD or president strong enough to get it to happen. AAC will backfill and life goes on. If I were wagering the realistic list of AAC backfill looks like this. UAB. If Memphis is left behind their preference is almost certainly UAB. They had a bit of a rivalry. They are competent in hoops and football generally. I think a Texas school is on the list and Rice scratches the private schools back while UTSA is the best fit in the mind of the state schools if they feel obligated to go to Texas because it’s a new market FAU has been one of the consistently better CUSA schools in a nice market and adjacent to the bigger Miami market. ODU has a whomping big budget. Market is the largest without an NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, or MLS team. Basically size of Oklahoma City but no FBS in-state that is close. Va Tech is 300 miles and Virginia is 160. The nearest school is ECU who pushed to add them to CUSA. Air Force hasn’t been happy with MWC and isn’t shy about that. If Navy stays, making Air Force vs Navy a league game cuts into the third wheel status they have in Army-Navy. Colorado State having a rough time mostly of late but decent history and makes AFA travel better. New Mexico helps the hoops reputation. Decent academic rep. Wyoming, another small market but another that can help AFA travel Dark horses a pick em of Louisiana, App State, Coastal Carolina depending on mood of ESPN and longest shots of all Georgia State big market some modest hoops success and FIU in the Miami market It is entirely possible all AAC picks come from CUSA. But I will be surprised if AAC picks anyone for all sports football membership that isn’t on this list. EDIT I am adding two names. Marshall because ECU is likely to advocate for them. USM because Tulane is likely to advocate for them.

CUSA 2.0 had good TV value. They lost teams and CUSA end up with a small contract and a stipend to self-produce content which months earlier had been the proof CUSA tv was superior to Sun Belt because the SBC was self-producing some content. Networks cut the richer payment under the old deal. The AAC tv contract is going to go that direction losing three valuable brands. Any given Saturday a grenade lobbed into the stands at Tulsa or Tulane might not hurt anyone. ESPN pays for three things. One content that brings eyeballs. Two content that brings subscribers. Three something cheap to fill a hole. AAC has done a decent job bringing viewers but lot of their linear content was on ESPNews. The channel for I don’t like the game on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU. After ACC network launched Sun Belt started getting some of those slots on the 12 day selection. Two things I’m pretty certain are true. 1 AAC is about to get a nasty haircut from tv with rights moving more in line with MWC or worse. 2 University presidents aren’t generally savvy enough to recognize item one, they just know the donors have said get us in AAC and they will leap at the offer to be in yet another geographically ridiculous conference to get new uniform patches and satisfy the grumblings from when AAC was clearly head of the class in G5

Sort of makes my point Miner. The schools consistent in football doesn’t have obviously AAC schools like Memphis or Houston to pick from

I would have guessed BYU, Boise, UCF, and Cincy but guess that extra 400 miles was too much. If you look at the pool AAC can pick from there’s no on that stands out as a must pick. Taking five year SP+ ratings you’ve got 26 Appalachian State. Not easy travel and if markets are your bag they ain’t got it. 31. Boise. Hard to see a gutted AAC luring them when they backed out of a full strength version. 48. San Diego State. Easier to fly to but seriously has to be football only. Like Boise backed out of a stronger version of AAC 61. Ohio consistent program that might benefit from no longer being just part of the lump of Ohio MAC schools but small market defined if you are into markets. 63. Toledo. Bigger city than Ohio is in and a consistent winner and again someone who might benefit not being in the great Ohio lump. 66. Air Force. I think they might be interested making Navy a league game and trimming some of the Army-Navy excitement 67 Troy another small market 73 Western Michigan. Rural and remote but maybe a chance for identity from 3 Michigan MACs. 75 WKU another small market and has had some budget issues. 78 FAU first one that looks like AAC in community. 80 Arkansas State. Yet another small market. 81 Fresno. Long ol way out there. Maybe if paired with SDSU? 82 Wyoming. Another remote school. 83 Louisiana. An ECU sized market. 85. UAB. Like FAU feels more like what AAC would seek. That’s all I’ve got from Bill Connelly’s list.

During the UCLA Hawaii telecast on ESPN the most common words where Alabama and Clemson while I was watching

What exactly is there to be proactive about beyond indicating interest. Back when I hired people we’d get 75 to 500 applications depending on the position. Only about one in 10 got a serious look and by the time it got to me the list would be five and I almost always had that 5 narrowed to 3 by the time I was preparing to interview that last five. It always comes down to what are they looking for and how well ya fit that profile. Fans over stress on this. Schools reach out to people they know in other leagues and express interest and try to get insight on what they are looking for. When Big East/AAC raided CUSA the one known was UNT was getting an invite. All the other pieces came together to meet the politics in the league. Big XII is going to go after BYU because they are the P5 like program out there and the two have flirted before. UCF and Cincinnati are next tier because their geography doesn’t suck and they won’t step on anyone else’s toes much in recruiting. After that you’ve got Boise on the other side of the world, Memphis, and president darling Tulane. After that it’s people who step on their toes in recruiting and even local media. I suspect odds are long for SMU, Houston, Tulsa unless B12 wants to retreat within the footprint. Then AAC has to figure out what it is they want and a school fits or doesn’t