Looking less likely for the latter with the news of UCF's probation. Conference alignments generally don't favor those in the doghouse (look at Houston & SMU circa 1996).
Otherwise, I mostly agree with the rest of your assessment.
I still think MWC is our best bet for the future, however unlikely. I'd really just like to capitalize on the situation we've got. We're in a league that people generally look to be weak (like the WAC) and play only one or two "body bag" games a year. If we could go back to running the table in the SBC then start winning these games vs middle-of-the-road BCS schools (ie, K-State) and knock off an occasional "big dog" (Clemson), we'd slowly garner national attention, a la Boise. Of course, this is probably the same thing being discussed on every fan board of every program in the WAC, MAC, and SBC, at present.