Someone correct me if I am wrong, but this is how I see it: There are currently 16 members in the Alliance. Based on how many members they end up going with will determine UNT's chances of getting invited to the new conference. Based on the article our biggest competition for one of those spots are: Utah State, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech and FIU.
If the Alliance goes to only 18 members, that leaves 2 spots. Are we one of the top two programs from the list of candidates? I think we have a chance, but I could see them going with 2 of the WAC schools instead.
If the Alliance goes to 20 members, that leaves 4 spots. Are we one of the top four programs under consideration? I think so and like our chances in this scenario.
If the Alliance goes to 22 members, that leaves 6 spots. Are we one of the top six programs under consideration? Yes, without a doubt.
Am I missing anything here?