TheTastyGreek

It's actually a little better than once every two years (15% is higher than 1/8, or 12.5%) for 14 seeds. It's actually a little worse than once every six years (4% is less than 1/24, or 4.17%) for 15 seeds.

If we had played last year's OOC D1 schedule this year, here's what the RPI situation would look like: Oklahoma State - 29 Sam Houston State - 79 Indiana State - 88 Jackson State - 196 Houston - 145 Sam Houston State - 79 New Mexico State - 63 Houston Baptist - 329 UT-Arlington - 234 Arkansas - 154 5 games against RPI top 100 teams. 2 against teams around 150. Only two games against teams with RPI 200+. Problem number one is catching a lot of opponents during bad years. Problem number two is the difficulty in scheduling decent games against decent opponents. People don't want to risk losing to us, because we're a legitimate threat in a home-and-home.

We have both, both years. Next year, we play Tech at home in November (I think the 17th) and at LSU on December 22nd or 23rd. The season after that, we play at Tech and have LSU at home.

Yes. Unbelievable... Great shot.

Not saying immediately... Just somewhere down the line.

Plus- Texas Tech is at the Super Pit, early in November (before they get a chance to roll in any of their new guys completely). And LSU is probably Johnny's dream job, and he'll be as motivated to win that game (and the return game at the Pit in 2011) as he's ever been to beat anyone.

Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Washington, Florida, Mississippi, and Mississippi State all have 20+ wins and may not make an at-large bid this year. UAB, San Diego State, and Memphis have 23 wins, and they're all arguably likelier than not to be left out of the tournament. Expecting an at-large bid is not realistic. We could have our greatest season ever and still be left out. Especially if the rest of the Sun Belt doesn't do well in OOC (like this year) and we have a poor conference RPI. My expectations/hopes for next year based on what we already know about our schedule are to go 12-4 or better in conference, and to win at least one of the games we'll have against Texas Tech and LSU.

Back in 2007, I know there were at least 3 stations present just from memory. I'd be surprised, given that we're the only local angle on the NCAA selection story, if they aren't all there this year.

The field only expanded to the point where it would require a 15 seed (64 teams) back in 1985, so all games involving 15 seeds have happened within the past 25 years.

I'd rather be a 14 seed playing on a pile of rubble in Haiti than a 15 seed playing at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Again... If someone mentions a team being "on the bubble", they're talking about them as a potential at-large team. Any at-large team is going to have a better seed than us. What we need is lesser teams to win tournaments and earn automatic bids. That raises our floor. EDIT to clarify: It's not about UAB losing, it's about USM winning, and either them or Houston being one game away from the NCAA Tournament.

No, this (on its own) doesn't help us. Memphis would have been an at-large team. That's not going to happen now. Instead, another at-large team will take their place; one with a better record/RPI/SOS than us. Now, if Houston goes on and wins the C-USA tournament, that would put another team with an inferior resume in the tournament and boost us up. But Memphis alone losing doesn't put a team with a worse resume than ours in the tournament. Houston, Southern Miss, or UCF winning the C-USA auto-bid would help us, though. And Houston is 2 wins away from doing it. At the moment, Southern Miss has a double digit lead on UAB, and if they win, that would guarantee that either Southern Miss or Houston would play in the final.

Here's why, as a general rule, a Big 10 team would probably be our best matchup. We have two big advantages over most of the teams we've played, and they form the core of our strength: 1) Great athleticism and 2) Solid depth. Against our league and many of our OOC foes, they can't run the floor with us and match our pace. I'm not saying we're Loyola Marymount or D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns or anything... But we do score well and we average a lot of possessions. And our depth allows us (especially earlier in the season) to push our advantage during substitutions, as our backups tend to be better than the reserves of our opponents. But we're not going to out-athlete a Big East or a Big 12 team. And our reserves, if we get back to relying on them (which I doubt we will in a perpetual elimination situation), aren't going to be an asset against teams like Kansas State. Remember, THEIR bench guys are the George Odufuwas and Keith Woodens that wind up as our frontline stars if/when they decide to transfer for the opportunity to start. We're not going to out-athlete a Big 10 team, either... But their style of basketball gives us as good a shot at an upset as we can possibly hope for. That conference tends to play a more methodical, less up-tempo style that Quoner likes to call "Trashketball". Think UALR's grinderball style, but more efficient and with better players. Grabby, violent defense. Slow, methodical possessions that try to get high percentage shots. If you remember Wisconsin making a surprise Final Four run in the early 2000's under Dicky Bennett, I think they actually won a game or two in the NCAA tournament with scores in the 40s and 50s. My dad (who got familiar with Bennett during Bennett's time coaching high school basketball in Wisconsin) called it "Bennett Ball", and it was soul crushing to have to watch. It's not to say that Big 10 teams aren't as good as the other conferences... Just that the general style of play from the Big 10 suits our strengths and weaknesses. If you watched how Troy plays... Basically, stand and wait for pop-a-shot outside attempts or try to drive to the basket on offense, work the zone on defense... It's similar to what we might see against a Big 10 opponent. If we can start well, we can use that same slow down approach to hold an advantage and work the clock like we did against the Trojans. Playing Denver and Troy back to back, and handling both games quite well, sets us up nicely for a traditional Big 10 style. Think of it this way: To put it in terms that the football folks will immediately grasp... We're not going to win against a team that gets in a shootout with us. That's what we're in for against a Big 12 or Big East squad. But if we get a Big 10 team, they basically play the Power Conference basketball equivalent of Darrell Dickeyball. They're already slowing the game down for us, and limiting their own opportunities to push the game out of reach. If we play well and repeat the things that allowed us to win against the tournament opponents we just beat (at a higher level, obviously), then we've got a shot. No matter who we play from a 14 or 15 slot, the odds are slim and we're going to have to catch a team playing at less than their best just to have a shot. They have to make mistakes, we need to execute brilliantly, and we'll have to get a little lucky.

Agreed. In fact, I'll go one further and say I'd hate to have to play any team from the Big East.

Does it undermine the power of the Slow Clap if I'm so overwhelmed that I do a Fast Clap instead?

Deez nuts. Seriously... I picked up on most of this stuff from conversations with you and CMJ a few years back, so I'll defer to your opinion about who wins the coin flip between us and SHSU. Still, the conference RPI would also tend to give Montana an edge over us, considering similar RPIs and their better SOS. Whatever measure anyone is using... It's still a good but not certain chance that we'll get that 14 seed. Upsets = good, especially UC-SB and SHSU. Also, root for A&M and OSU in the Big 12 tournament. No upsets means a reasonable but by no means certain shot at that 14 spot.

Prove it.

One thing that might work in our favor is that their "best win" (per RPI rankings) is over Oral Roberts (RPI 124). Second best is over Auburn (140). We have two wins over Troy (RPI 109) and the one over Western Kentucky (131). Other than name recognition for a pretty bad Auburn team, they don't really have any win that makes them look significantly better than us. And as CMJ has pointed out (and the committee has proven on a yearly basis)... It isn't just RPI, though RPI is a good tool to help filter things out. They dropped 2 of their last 5 regular season games, against UTSA and Texas State. That's supposed to be off the table as a point of comparison, but under the old system, we'd have a leg up on them there. Still... I don't think we'll get favored over SHSU, so it's still important that they (or UC Santa Barbara, or ideally both) lose their tournament.

They do have 4 non-D1 wins on their resume, though. Their best case scenario is 25-7, with only 21 D1 victories. I don't see us getting a higher seed than they do... But their record is deceptive, and that first D1 game of the season against Kentucky is really what's propping their RPI up so high.

No, I mean that Montana won't get a higher seed than SHSU. SHSU has a better tournament resume than we do, and we need to see them upset in their tournament to improve our shot at a 14 seed. SHSU beat a sub .500 Auburn team, and their SEC schedule is helping SHSU's RPI. They also lost to Kentucky, which is pulling them up more than losing to A&M or OSU is pulling us up.

Or SHSU. This is an odd prediction...

Always glad to have you stop by, man. Thanks for the kind words, and we're sorry to have missed you this year. Hopefully you'll make it back to Hot Springs in 2011. As for the suits... If my girlfriend (or his wife, had she made the trip) hadn't been sitting right next to us, there's probably no way I would have worn matching skintight bright green bodysuits along with another guy. At least, not on national television.

Barring some sort of dramatic shift in selection criteria... It's zero percent. I'll start a new thread as a replacement for the "Who to root for" one that outlines who we're likely to out-seed (for lack of a better phrase) and what our prospects are for getting to that 14 seed.

This is very good.

Also, root for Montana in the Big Sky final later tonight.