Cerebus

Who thinks they will remain a P5? There isn't even a P5 anymore, it's a P2 with some assortment of tiers beneath them. I would bet that the PAC will remain an FBS conference with autonomy status. Right now that gets them extra CFP money. If anyone should be sweating right now its the MWC teams.

They only need six votes.

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Cause they don't have to pay anything as long as the PAC invites enough members?

The NCAA could propose a rule to change the A5 to the A4. Or they could propose a rule to add the AAC to the autonomy status. They could propose any rule they want. I don't know which of those is more likely to happen, or how the member institutions would vote. I do know that right now what ever the PAC is, it has autonomy status. Also don't forget that CFP's base (non performance) payout is higher to autonomy conferences. Yes, the units are paid to the conferences themselves and then they redistribute. No idea on the second one. How many of those current PAC12 subscriptions are based on the channel being bundled with something else the subscriber actually wanted? I don't know. But I do know the former PAC presidents had serious doubts on how many would move over to the bundled stand alone Apple model.

One more thing, knowing exactly how much a conference is going to make on NCAA units is always muddled because: You are promised future units for the next five years based on how you did on the current year. You don’t know the value of the future units because they are computed each year based on the proceeds of that future years tournament. However some CBB basketball nerds I follow are of the opinion the PAC is due somewhere in the range of $40M to $50M based on the units they have banked and are to be paid out over the next five years.

There is a group of conferences who gets to propose rules on what is proper student athlete compensation. That same group of conferences get to vote on those rules. Then there is a group of schools who has no say. I know what group I would want to be in, and I would value that highly. I bet I know how our president and AD feel about it as well.

The “Apple deal could pay as much or more than the B12 swap” lie spin was put out by the PAC commish to the PAC members and to PAC friendly media. However, the devil is in the details. Why no one has released a copy of the contract, some details have leaked out: Very little of the money was guaranteed. Instead, escalator clauses kicked in the more PAC add on subscriptions were sold. The PAC add on was going to be $20/month. So yes, there was technically a chance they could make more than the B12, but apparently it would have taken the equivalent of 90% of the total AppleTV+ user base to sign on to the extra $20/month package to hit B12 numbers. Once the PAC presidents saw that, they knew they had it get out.

But hey at least it wasn't on the turf thinly carpeted cement of Fouts.

This is a pretty good prognostication, except I don't think Cal can go the indy route. They took on half a billion in construction bonds and they need any conference money they can get. Remember being in a conference isn't just about the tv money, when you are a FBS conference member you get: Conference distribution of the NCAA tournament credits Conference distribution of the CFP playoff credits Conference distribution of the TV contract For Cal that will be millions a year to give up on, when they have a huge debt hanging over athletics. I would guess the third MWC school to be left behind in that scenario would be Wyoming. Remember the PAC Apple deal is based on subscription sales, and the state has about half the population that of Denton county.

That's not how that works. A5 was not given to the instutions in the PAC, it was given to the PAC by name. If those schools leave the PAC for the MWC/AAC/etc they don't bring that status with them. There is no mechanism to change/strip A5 status. When the NIL fiasco first started brewing the P5 demanded the NCAA propose a rule change that gave, SPECIFICALLY, only the B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC, and B12 extra rights to propose and vote on certain legislation. The vote was put to the FBS conferences AS A WHOLE, but the G5 knew if they voted no the P5 might leave the NCAA. So they didn't reject the proposal. They will take six from the MWC so the departing MWC school can kill exit fees, but I am not sure why they would take two small private schools from the AAC. They may well take a couple schools from the AAC, but remember the Apple deal is based on COMPENSATION PER SUBSCRIPTION. If the PAC looks at AAC schools they will want people who can sell a lot of the Apple+ PAC add ons. The B12 commissioner's genius here was to realize the media market was drying up because the mouse could no longer strong arm ESPN fees onto every basic cable sub, and the cable sub market is dwindling anyway. So he knew Disney/Fox could probably only afford the B12 or the PAC. He got the deal first, now there isn't money left over for a PAC deal.

Thank you. We’ll be out there again next week.

I have no guarantees, but if you think TV execs want to pay more for Wyoming and Colorado St than they do for Cal and Ore State then we can just agree to disagree.

So what’s your argument here? The remaining pac schools will have to take a huge pay cut if they stay in the PAC so instead they should… take a bigger payout to go to the MWC? The only way they don’t take a pay cut is getting in B1G/SEC/B12. Those conferences already crunched the numbers and don’t want them. They are gonna have to eat that payout either way. The PAC is an autonomy five conference, the MWC is not. Again what’s your argument here? The MWC schools should make less money and not go into an autonomy conference… why again?

I have been saying seven, but that’s only because I thought the MWC had 12 members, at 11, they just need six. Stanford can afford to go independent, but they would be cut out of the playoff. Cal cal not afford it, they are deep into debt on construction bonds, they need every penny they can get from conference membership.

Good start, saying the PAC4 + six MWC could make a good conference. Terrible landing, saying it can’t happen now because the MWC exit fees. Six MWC teams is exactly what they need to change the bylaws and end exit fees.

NCAA did specifically to allow those conference to decide on player compensation rules.

Never year? You are right there is no autonomy status if there is no conference. Thats why you invite 6 MWC members, have them strike down exit fees in the MWC, leave the MWC, join the PAC. Then there is a PAC with autonomy status. The MWC then has to scramble for survival.

Not true. In the NCAA bylaws the PAC BY NAME has autonomy five status.

1) COMCAST has already said that it expects to be made whole by THE MEMBER INSTITUTIONS AT THE TIME THE DISTRIBUTIONS WERE MADE. Whether the PAC folds or not, their lawyers are still going after the schools who got the money at the time, no matter what conference they are in now. 2) As we talked about in this thread, the MWC bylaws are online. A simple majority vote can change any rule/regulation, including the buyout fees. Just invite a majority of the MWC and they can strike down the exit fees and then exit. 3) PAC4 aren’t going to make more money leaving the PAC. The PAC at least has Autonomy 5 status, BY NAME, in the NCAA bylaws. 4) No one outside the B1G/SEC is going to replace that money, and they don’t want them. Moot point.

They are actually higher this year, but remember its on a five year sliding scale, so PAC’s money will be higher,. Fair warning: I don’t know the exact numbers, this is what some NCAA basketball nerds have posted.

Oh there is no doubt the PACx of the future is not the PAC12 of the past, but it will survive. MWC should be concerned.

QB Chandler Rogers S Evan Jackson QB Jace Ruder WR Richard Rocquemore QB's Rogers, Ruder, and Earle

MWC bylaws are online, I think they only need 7 of 12.

But there is Autonomy Five (A5) status an the PAC has that by name in the NCAA bylaws.