January will be big...
Quote:"I think there's a huge moment in time coming up in January, when we see what they'll do in the BCS with the Mountain West request (for an automatic BCS berth)," Waters said. "I think if they get that, I think the (Conference USA-Mountain West) merger is probably off."If they don't get that, I think you'll see the merger between Conference USA and Mountain West, and that will reduce the number of conferences from 11 to 10. I think it'll be very difficult for the WAC and that could reduce the number to 9. It might also make it difficult for the Big East to remain a football league and that could drop it to 8."So when you're one of eight instead of one of 11, all of a sudden, you have a different profile and all the sustainability and stability that goes with it. So, I think this January is big."
I disagree with the commissioner that we are moving to an eight conference universe. I believe we are moving to a nine or ten conference universe.
As I've stated on NCAABBS Sun Belt board, the middle class is disappearing in college football. Look at how the MWC, CUSA, and WAC raids have gone. The elite programs that made up the middle class are mostly gone. Those who remain are left in conferences with lower budget, lower supported schools than exisited in 2004 or even in 2010.
The people who did best in the Great Depression or our current great recession are those who had cash on hand and little debt. The AD at FAU was quoted after ASU hired Malzahn as saying Sun Belt schools have been smart in the coaching hires because the contracts offered have been consistent with what we can make in ticket sales. Look at Memphis. They hired a TCU coordinator for $100,000 to $250,000 a year more than ASU is paying Malzahn, drew fewer fans than ASU last year and they are slashing all season ticket packages $50 to $150.
The "rich" TV deal CUSA signed with Fox? Works out to $580,000 per school and was signed when Orlando, Dallas, and the better supported school in Houston were in the league.
The chasing of TV dollars is like what is happening in boardrooms of failing companies. Slash your core business and dump it to cling to the one steady revenue stream that in the long run won't exist without the core business. Go research the budgets of FBS schools. Whether its Texas or Texas Tech league revenue (which is only partially TV, it also includes NCAA, bowl, league championships, and sponsorships) is generally a third or less of operating income. The core revenue stream in college is ticket sales, donations, and sponsorships.
The new Big East and the Alliance are chasing TV dollars and BCS dollars mostly at the expense of playing regionally relevant schools. The problem UNT and Arkansas State share is that we lack a really close school that we can have a rivalry with that helps fuel donations and tickets. Swapping the Sun Belt label for the CUSA label doesn't resolve any of our problems if CUSA doesn't have those regionally relevant opponents.
They are ignoring their core business. I tend to believe that if you take care of selling tickets, soliciting donations and sponsorships that the TV part of the picture will take care of itself. You should never make a move solely because of TV. The intelligent conference asks first, "Does this school fit with us in their goals, aspirations, focus, and profile?". The second question should be, "Does adding this institution help anyone in the league sell more tickets and to develop a rivalry?". Look at TAMU. Back in the 80's LSU and TAMU had a short-run series that was extremely popular and Arkansas has a long history with them. Mizzou and Arkansas are a perfect fit though not as currently hobbled up in their division structure. You focus on growing the 70% of your business, not the 30%, especially if growing the 30% is at the cost of the 70%.
Rick Pitino has already said he will not comply with a Big East mandate to schedule the football only schools for a total of four games a year for each football only because Boise and San Diego are too far for the program to deal with.
How is San Diego State going to help SMU or Rutgers sell more tickets and generate more fan interest? How is a championship game against Nevada and the occasional cross-over basketball game against them going to help East Carolina sell more tickets and spur interest in their corner of North Carolina?
Commissioner Waters thinks the Big East will collapse and the fallout will trickle into the Alliance and some into the Sun Belt.
I disagree.
I think the Big XII will take Louisville and someone else, probably South Florida but maybe Cincinnati or Rutgers. Memphis would be a very long shot.
When that happens I have my doubts that the basketball schools will agree to add any more full members. If the ACC were to come back in and take two more, I'd wager heavily they will not agree to take any more football schools to get back to eight full football members.
The likely outcome in my opinion is that what is left of the Big East other than Boise State and San Diego State may finally see the light and approach the best CUSA programs and maybe Temple, maybe UMass, maybe a Sun Belt school or two and form a new conference that leaves UTEP, Tulane, Rice, UAB, maybe Tulsa out of the mix.
The western schools will take UTEP, Boise State, San Diego State, and maybe USU and San Jose, maybe NMSU (not likely thanks to UTEP and New Mexico) and do their own thing.
The Sun Belt will pick up Rice, UAB, Tulane and if available Tulsa. Might take La.Tech or UTSA or TexSt. and we will have the five wealthy leagues. We will have a new eastern/southeastern league to replace CUSA/Big East and a MWC sort of conference and there will be some schools left in the cold like NMSU and Idaho.
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