Git Sum Presidentin' (Republican primaries)

This is how the propoganda machine works. You can see it in Coffee's posts on politics when he presents things that are completely opinion based as facts. I don't blame him, as that is the playbook he has been taught. Say something, repeat it often and loudly, and soon people will begin to believe you.

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really? Because the republicans are completely innocent of that. I could post several things they are doing that with that I've heard just today, but I'll go with my favorite and remind you of the death panel idiocy to serve as example.

Romney's already leading polls in South Carolina, New Hampshire gives him a bigger boost. This nomination is pretty much wrapped up.

Romney's already leading polls in South Carolina, New Hampshire gives him a bigger boost. This nomination is pretty much wrapped up.

No it isn't.

Rick

No it isn't.

Rick

Delegates wise, no Romney won't win the nomination for months. In practicality, if Romney wins in South Carolina and Florida -- this will be wrapped up around Super Tuesday.

Delegates wise, no Romney won't win the nomination for months. In practicality, if Romney wins in South Carolina and Florida -- this will be wrapped up around Super Tuesday.

Florida will be the wrapper upper if Romney can manage to win SC. Health care should no doubt be a big issue in the Florida election, but with many of the other candidates trying to go all democrat up in here (focusing on a stupid Romney comment instead of things that matter to voters), who knows if it will.

Romney will make a Republican return to the White House that much more difficult.

Proving what UNT90 says is true, Fox News exit poll this morning reports that over 60 percent of voters from last night did so with the "economy" as their highest priority.

Rick

No it isn't.

Rick

Your logic is so sound.

Your logic is so sound.

Thank you

Rick

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/florida

Folks, while Romney certainly has a "leg up" on the nomination after the close win in Iowa and the rout in NH, it is not over. It's the delegate count that matters and very few of those are set as yet. That's the technical version of the situation. However, the practical version is that if Romney indeed wins S. Carolina (where he did rather poorly last time, but where he is leading currently in the SC pools) and then takes Florida, the nomination is pretty much his and then it comes down to his running mate.

Rubio, Ryan and even Santorum (who has stayed out of all the nasty attacks such as Newt is waging on Romney so far) are looking like possibilities. Of the three, Ryan would be the "rock star" pick, but it's a bit early to tell in that regard.

While exit polls indicated a number of NH voters wished for "someone else" even after voting for the candidate of their choice, polls also show that Romney has the best chance of the candidates running to beat Obama in 2012. Like it or not, that's the way it is currently. Rubio, Santorum and Ryan will all bring something to add to the ticket that could help "less than thrilled" conservatives wander over to Romney should he get the nod in the primary races.

The danger for the conservative bunch here is that Ron Paul or Donald Trump run a third party campaign. Each would take a bunch of votes away from the R side. While "The Donald" would be doing it out of ego he would pick off some votes that would have gone to Romney...Paul on the other hand might actually prove to be a serious threat to the party. He is very popular with the younger (40 and under) conservative and Libertarian crowd who like his stance of the military and many of his "out of the box" economic theories and ideas. Plus, there is that Tea party thing still lingering around. They tend to like Ron Paul to some large extent.

So, no it is not over by a long stretch...the "Fat Lady" is no where near the building as yet on this thing, but after SC and FL...if Romney should win them both, well, she can start warming up.

Where do you guys think Huntsman fits into all this? I thought he made a good showing in the last debate albeit late in the game.

I think Huntsman is running for 2016 or 2020 right now. As I pointed out months ago in another thread, the GOP goes with the "next in line" (if one exists). Other than Bush Jr - the Republicans haven't nominated anyone that hadn't run for either President or VP (exception - Ford who WAS President without running) since Goldwater and that was considered a huge upset(....AND he was trounced). Really you have to go before Ike to see the GOP do this with any sort of frequency. Hence why Romney is doing so well right now. The GOP likes name recognition, while the Democrats are more likely to be wowed by new people.

The problem is Huntsman hasn't caught on much, and is hardly the next in line. However, no one is right now --- so he might stay in a few primaries, step aside gracefully, and to try and and play the network game to get the big money donors in his camp for the next go round.

Edited January 11, 2012 by CMJ

I think Huntsman is running for 2016 or 2020 right now. As I pointed out months ago in another thread, the GOP goes with the "next in line" (if one exists). Other than Bush Jr - the Republicans haven't nominated anyone that hadn't run for either President or VP (exception - Ford who WAS President without running) since Goldwater and that was considered a huge upset....AND he was trounced). Really you have to go before Ike to see the GOP do this with any sort of frequency. Hence why Romney is doing so well right now. The GOP likes name recognition, while the Democrats are more likely to be wowed by new people.

The problem is Huntsman hasn't caught on much, and is hardly the next in line. However, no one is right now --- so he might stay in a few primaries, step aside gracefully, and to try and and play the network game to get the big money donors in his camp for the next go round.

This is my feeling as well. I wouldn't vote for Huntsman but I do like him, he's a respectable moderate who is principled. Unlike Romney who will say or do anything depending on the political winds & the audience he's speaking to.

Romney/Rubio has a nice ring to it.

Rick

Romney/Rubio has a nice ring to it.

Rick

I don't think Ricky Rubio is eligible to hold political office in the US. But, I bet he'd have some pretty slick assists to the President if he were the VP. Dude's a baller!

I don't think Ricky Rubio is eligible to hold political office in the US. But, I bet he'd have some pretty slick assists to the President if he were the VP. Dude's a baller!

Well, he's already got the name recognition.

Rick Perry done. Most of his support had already slid Gingrich's way, so endorsing him won't matter much.

I expected Newt to do better in South Carolina & the South, but this size of a surge is surprising. I wouldn't be surprised now if he won SC, but I don't think that'll translate necessarily to Florida. He'll have 10 days to open his big mouth between the two primaries, and when Newt is doing well he seems to shoot himself in the foot. Post-Florida Romney will have a great run, the states up for primaries really favor him. (Michigan, Arizona, Nevada)

I expected Newt to do better in South Carolina & the South, but this size of a surge is surprising. I wouldn't be surprised now if he won SC, but I don't think that'll translate necessarily to Florida. He'll have 10 days to open his big mouth between the two primaries, and when Newt is doing well he seems to shoot himself in the foot. Post-Florida Romney will have a great run, the states up for primaries really favor him. (Michigan, Arizona, Nevada)

Coffee, how are you feeling now day of? You've been pretty close with your predictions so far... curious where you have this one.

Coffee, how are you feeling now day of? You've been pretty close with your predictions so far... curious where you have this one.

Still kinda tricky. Everyone sort of saw the Santorum surge (lulz) coming about a week before, whereas Newt's happened in the past few days after his debate performance Monday & Thursday. Seen some double digit leads in polls for Gingrich, but also seen some very close. The weather is awful upstate where the more evangelical base is, so that might tamper Newt & Santorum's numbers some. Still think Gingrich pulls it out.

Gingrich 37%

Romney 31%

Paul 18%

Santorum 14%

Paul is not going anywhere, but Santorum might be soon.

Also, Romney staffers are apparently tapering down expectations for tonight. They'll be looking towards Florida where he's still doing very very well in the polls.

Also, Romney staffers are apparently tapering down expectations for tonight. They'll be looking towards Florida where he's still doing very very well in the polls.

Romney loses by 12%.

So now Romney has only won one primary, and that was basically in one of his 2 home states. So I guess we can tone down the " 'Romney's got it all wrapped up" talk, eh?

I don't think Mitt wins Florida. If he loses by double digits again, he faces an uphill fight for the nomination. Too bad the republicans have managed to give conservatives very flawed candidates from which to choose.

The ABC hit piece did nothing but help Washington Newt in SC, and, more importantly, with the public in general. Newt's problem (specific to the election, because I'm sure there are many others) is the female vote. Go find the most conservative woman you know and ask her if she would vote for Newt. I've done this several times (only when the opportunity presented itself, religion and politics, don't you know) and every time these highly conservative women have said they would vote for Pres Obama over Newt if that was the choice that was presented.

Not that they wouldnt vote in the election, bit that they would vote FOR Pres. Obama.

Edited January 22, 2012 by UNT90

Too bad the republicans have managed to give conservatives very flawed candidates from which to choose.

I highly doubt "very conservative" women (or men) would vote for Obama over Newt Gingrich. Moderates, maybe. But not conservatives.

And I believe the hindsight of history has shown us that many of our presidents, even the great ones, have possessed deep flaws along with admirable qualities.

Romney loses by 12%.

So now Romney has only won one primary, and that was basically in one of his 2 home states. So I guess we can tone down the " 'Romney's got it all wrapped up" talk, eh?

I don't think Mitt wins Florida. If he loses by double digits again, he faces an uphill fight for the nomination.

Well look who's Mr Snarky now that I was off in one of my predictions. Need I go back through this thread to contrast all the times I was correct, and you weren't?

I'll make sure to bring up the part of your quote that I bolded in a couple of weeks. A southern 'conservative' won a very southern conservative state against a more moderate candidate. A rejection of South Carolina would be a win in my book, personally.

Edited January 22, 2012 by Coffee and TV

Well look who's Mr Snarky now that I was off in one of my predictions. Need I go back through this thread to contrast all the times I was correct, and you weren't?

I'll make sure to bring up the part of your quote that I bolded in a couple of weeks. A southern 'conservative' won a very southern conservative state against a more moderate candidate. A rejection of South Carolina would be a win in my book, personally.

Dude. It's not all about you.

I was commenting on the national media love for Romney. It really had nothing to do with you.

But, if you wanna make predictions around here. You better be prepared to take some jabs when you are wrong. I've taken plenty in the past and I'm sure will take plenty in the future, as I am smart enough to realize that I can't predict the future.

I guess when you are a self-described political pundit like yourself you tend to forget that you can't predict the future;-)

Edited January 22, 2012 by UNT90